@phdthesis{Boettle2015,
  author    = {B{\"o}ttle, Markus},
  title     = {Coastal floods in view of sea level rise},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-91074},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiii, 111},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage. Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities. The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Papendiek2015,
  author    = {Papendiek, Franka},
  title     = {Fodder legumes for Green Biorefineries},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-87198},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XI, 111},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Peak oil is forcing our society to shift from fossil to renewable resources. However, such renewable resources are also scarce, and they too must be used in the most efficient and sustainable way possible. Biorefining is a concept that represents both resource efficiency and sustainability. This approach initiates a cascade use, which means food and feed production before material use, and an energy-related use at the end of the value-added chain. However, sustainability should already start in the fields, on the agricultural side, where the industrially-used biomass is produced. Therefore, the aim of my doctoral thesis is to analyse the sustainable feedstock supply for biorefineries. In contrast to most studies on biorefineries, I focus on the sustainable provision of feedstock and not on the bioengineering processing of whatever feedstock is available. Grasslands provide a high biomass potential. They are often inefficiently used, so a new utilisation concept based on the biorefining approach can increase the added value from grasslands. Fodder legumes from temporary and permanent grasslands were chosen for this study. Previous research shows that they are a promising feedstock for industrial uses, and their positive environmental impact is an important byproduct to promote sustainable agricultural production systems. Green Biorefineries are a class of biorefineries that use fresh green biomass, such as grasses or fodder legumes, as feedstock. After fractionation, an organic solution (press juice) forms; this is used for the production of organic acids, chemicals and extracts, as well as fertilisers. A fibre component (press cake) is also created to produce feed, biomaterials and biogas. This thesis examines a specific value chain, using alfalfa and clover/grass as feedstock and generating lactic acid and one type of cattle feed from it. The research question is if biomass production needs to be adapted for the utilisation of fodder legumes in the Green Biorefinery approach. I have attempted to give a holistic analysis of cultivation, processing and utilisation of two specific grassland crops. Field trials with alfalfa and clover/grass at different study sites were carried out to obtain information on biomass quality and quantity depending on the crop, study site and harvest time. The fresh biomass was fractionated with a screw press and the composition of press juices and cakes was analysed. Fermentation experiments took place to determine the usability of press juices for lactic acid production. The harvest time is not of high importance for the quality of press juices as a fermentation medium. For permanent grasslands, late cuts, often needed for reasons of nature conservation, are possible without a major influence on feedstock quality. The press cakes were silaged for feed-value determination. Following evidence that both intermediate products are suitable feedstocks in the Green Biorefinery approach, I developed a cost-benefit analysis, comparing different production scenarios on a farm. Two standard crop rotations for Brandenburg, producing either only market crops or market crops and fodder legumes for ruminant feed production, were compared to a system that uses the cultivated fodder legumes for the Green Biorefinery value chain instead of only feed production. Timely processing of the raw material is important to maintain quality for industrial uses, so on-site processing at the farm is assumed in Green Biorefinery scenario. As a result, more added value stays in the rural area. Two farm sizes, common for many European regions, were chosen to examine the influence of scale. The cost site of farmers has also been analysed in detail to assess which farm characteristics make production of press juices for biochemical industries viable. Results show that for large farm sizes in particular, the potential profits are high. Additionally, the wider spectrum of marketable products generates new sources of income for farmers. The holistic analysis of the supply chain provides evidence that the cultivation processes for fodder legumes do not need to be adapted for use in Green Biorefineries. In fact, the new utilisation approach even widens the cultivation and processing spectrum and can increase economic viability of fodder legume production in conventional farming.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Duethmann2015,
  author    = {D{\"u}thmann, Doris},
  title     = {Hydrological modeling of mountain catchments in Central Asia},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-80071},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XVI, 95},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Water resources from Central Asia's mountain regions have a high relevance for the water supply of the water scarce lowlands. A good understanding of the water cycle in these mountain regions is therefore needed to develop water management strategies. Hydrological modeling helps to improve our knowledge of the regional water cycle, and it can be used to gain a better understanding of past changes or estimate future hydrologic changes in view of projected changes in climate. However, due to the scarcity of hydrometeorological data, hydrological modeling for mountain regions in Central Asia involves large uncertainties. Addressing this problem, the first aim of this thesis was to develop hydrological modeling approaches that can increase the credibility of hydrological models in data sparse mountain regions. This was achieved by using additional data from remote sensing and atmospheric modeling. It was investigated whether spatial patterns from downscaled reanalysis data can be used for the interpolation of station-based precipitation data. This approach was compared to other precipitation estimates using a hydrologic evaluation based on hydrological modeling and a comparison of simulated and observed discharge, which demonstrated a generally good performance of this method. The study further investigated the value of satellite-derived snow cover data for model calibration. Trade-offs of good model performance in terms of discharge and snow cover were explicitly evaluated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm, and the results were contrasted with single-objective calibration and Monte Carlo simulations. The study clearly shows that the additional use of snow cover data improved the internal consistency of the hydrological model. In this context, it was further investigated for the first time how many snow cover scenes were required for hydrological model calibration. The second aim of this thesis was the application of the hydrological model in order to investigate the causes of observed streamflow increases in two headwater catchments of the Tarim River over the recent decades. This simulation-based approach for trend attribution was complemented by a data-based approach. The hydrological model was calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance data and considered changes in glacier geometry over time. The results show that in the catchment with a lower glacierization, increasing precipitation and temperature both contributed to the streamflow increases, while in the catchment with a stronger glacierization, increasing temperatures were identified as the dominant driver.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Pradhan2015,
  author    = {Pradhan, Prajal},
  title     = {Food demand and supply under global change},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77849},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xvi, 141},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40\% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5 by 22-46\%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4\% to 16\%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.},
  language  = {en}
}