@phdthesis{Krummenauer2022,
  author    = {Krummenauer, Linda},
  title     = {Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55929},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-559294},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xix, 161},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30\% to 40\% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80\% to 84\% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.},
  language  = {en}
}
@book{OPUS4-5810,
  title     = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  editor    = {Burchert, Linn},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  isbn      = {978-3-86956-185-1},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-59403},
  publisher      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {184},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Der Band „Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen. Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft" er{\"o}ffnet konkrete Perspektiven f{\"u}r eine nachhaltige und zukunftsf{\"a}hige Entwicklung aus Sicht von Studierenden. In Form von Essays werden L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze zu konkreten Fragen der Zukunftsf{\"a}higkeit und Nachhaltigkeit von Gesellschaft, Politik und Wirtschaft erarbeitet. Im ersten Teil - Zukunftsf{\"a}higkeit und Nachhaltigkeit - wird ein thematischer Einstieg in Grenzen und Chancen von Prognosen sowie eine Auseinandersetzung mit den Begriffen Nachhaltigkeit und Zukunftsf{\"a}higkeit gegeben. Das Kapitel Gesellschaft hat individuelle und gesellschaftliche Handlungspotentiale zum Gegenstand. Im Kapitel Politik werden Ansatzpunkte und Perspektiven nachhaltiger politischer Systeme, Entscheidungen und Strategien erarbeitet. Der Komplex Wirtschaft behandelt die globale Verteilung von Ressourcen sowie Fragestellungen der Arbeitsmarkt- und Finanzpolitik. Der Band ist im Rahmen eines Projektkurses an der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam im Wintersemester 2011/12 entstanden.},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{EibichBurchert2012,
  author    = {Eibich, Peter and Burchert, Linn},
  title     = {Prognosen},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60546},
  pages     = {10 -- 21},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt: - Grundlagen der Statistik - Zukunftsfiktionen - Der Einfluss von Prognosen auf Gegenwart und Zukunft - Ethische Anforderungen und das richtige Verst{\"a}ndnis von Statistik},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Mueller2012,
  author    = {M{\"u}ller, Jacob},
  title     = {F{\"u}nf Finger hat die Hand …},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60674},
  pages     = {154 -- 162},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt - Zuk{\"u}nftige Entwicklung und Interessenvertretung - Prek{\"a}re Besch{\"a}ftigung im Weiterbildungssektor - Die Erosion sozialer Sicherung und Gegenstrategien},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Nickel2012,
  author    = {Nickel, Katharina},
  title     = {Vom Ingenieur zum Tellerw{\"a}scher?},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60681},
  pages     = {163 -- 171},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt - Der Fachkr{\"a}ftemangel - ein gegenw{\"a}rtiges und zuk{\"u}nftiges Problem - Neue Hoffnung - gesetzliche Neuerungen - Die deutsche »Willkommenskultur« - Ausblick},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Haars2012,
  author    = {Haars, Pia},
  title     = {Basiert eine zukunftsf{\"a}hige Politikgestaltung auf Risiko oder Vorsorge?},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60623},
  pages     = {104 -- 116},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt: - Definition und Aufkommen risikobasierter Politikformulierung - Attraktivit{\"a}t einer auf Risikoanalysen basierenden Politikgestaltung - Unzul{\"a}nglichkeiten und Herausforderungder Risikoanalysen - Fazit und Ausblick},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Partel2012,
  author    = {Partel, Marion},
  title     = {Was isst die Zukunft?},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60667},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt - Gegenw{\"a}rtige Situation und Prognosen f{\"u}r den Zugang zu Nahrung: Globale Fleisch- und Getreideverteilung - Chronische Unterern{\"a}hrung und steigender Nahrungspreis - Zukunftsmodell 1: »land grabbing« - Zukunftsmodell 2: Insekten essen - Zukunftsmodell 3: »Vertical Farming« - Zukunftsmodell 4: Verringerung von Essensverschwendung},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Geschonke2012,
  author    = {Geschonke, Sebastian},
  title     = {Zukunftsf{\"a}higkeit durch Nachhaltigkeit},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60553},
  pages     = {22 -- 40},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt: - Verschiedene Dimensionen der Nachhaltigkeit - Das Gemeinsame der verschiedenen Dimensionen - Das Streben nach einem besseren Verst{\"a}ndnis der Welt - Nachhaltigkeit - Ein allgemeines Modell der Nachhaltigkeit: Das »Existenzraum-Modell« - Das Metasystem Erde - Die Zukunftsf{\"a}higkeit der Gesellschaft},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Masuhr2012,
  author    = {Masuhr, Lilian},
  title     = {Recycling},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60586},
  pages     = {60 -- 69},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt: - »Coffee to stay« - Recyclingstrategien {\"u}berdenken - Transparenz des Recyclingweges - Zwei Konsumgenerationen - Eine Austauschgesellschafft - Extremformen des Recyclings - Entwicklungsl{\"a}nder als Vorbild - Grenzen des Recyclings - Vom Hippie {\"u}ber den Hipster zum Helden},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{Marien2012,
  author    = {Marien, David},
  title     = {Mehr Demokratie wagen!},
  series = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  journal   = {Perspektiven f{\"u}r morgen : Gedanken zur Zukunft von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60593},
  pages     = {70 -- 81},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Inhalt: - Defizite des gegenw{\"a}rtigen parlamentarischen Systems - Definitionsvorschlag: Was ist beteiligungsorientierte Demokratie? - Vorschl{\"a}ge f{\"u}r mehr Beteiligung - Kritik},
  language  = {de}
}