@article{FiedlerZoellerHolschneideretal.2018, author = {Fiedler, Bernhard and Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias and Hainzl, Sebastian}, title = {Multiple Change-Point Detection in Spatiotemporal Seismicity Data}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {108}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {3A}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120170236}, pages = {1147 -- 1159}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Earthquake rates are driven by tectonic stress buildup, earthquake-induced stress changes, and transient aseismic processes. Although the origin of the first two sources is known, transient aseismic processes are more difficult to detect. However, the knowledge of the associated changes of the earthquake activity is of great interest, because it might help identify natural aseismic deformation patterns such as slow-slip events, as well as the occurrence of induced seismicity related to human activities. For this goal, we develop a Bayesian approach to identify change-points in seismicity data automatically. Using the Bayes factor, we select a suitable model, estimate possible change-points, and we additionally use a likelihood ratio test to calculate the significance of the change of the intensity. The approach is extended to spatiotemporal data to detect the area in which the changes occur. The method is first applied to synthetic data showing its capability to detect real change-points. Finally, we apply this approach to observational data from Oklahoma and observe statistical significant changes of seismicity in space and time.}, language = {en} } @article{LesurWardinskiBaerenzungetal.2017, author = {Lesur, Vincent and Wardinski, Ingo and B{\"a}renzung, Julien and Holschneider, Matthias}, title = {On the frequency spectra of the core magnetic field Gauss coefficients}, series = {Physics of the earth and planetary interiors}, volume = {276}, journal = {Physics of the earth and planetary interiors}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0031-9201}, doi = {10.1016/j.pepi.2017.05.017}, pages = {145 -- 158}, year = {2017}, abstract = {From monthly mean observatory data spanning 1957-2014, geomagnetic field secular variation values were calculated by annual differences. Estimates of the spherical harmonic Gauss coefficients of the core field secular variation were then derived by applying a correlation based modelling. Finally, a Fourier transform was applied to the time series of the Gauss coefficients. This process led to reliable temporal spectra of the Gauss coefficients up to spherical harmonic degree 5 or 6, and down to periods as short as 1 or 2 years depending on the coefficient. We observed that a k(-2) slope, where k is the frequency, is an acceptable approximation for these spectra, with possibly an exception for the dipole field. The monthly estimates of the core field secular variation at the observatory sites also show that large and rapid variations of the latter happen. This is an indication that geomagnetic jerks are frequent phenomena and that significant secular variation signals at short time scales - i.e. less than 2 years, could still be extracted from data to reveal an unexplored part of the core dynamics.}, language = {en} } @article{CotroneiDiSalvoHolschneideretal.2017, author = {Cotronei, Mariantonia and Di Salvo, Rosa and Holschneider, Matthias and Puccio, Luigia}, title = {Interpolation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces based on random subdivision schemes}, series = {Journal of computational and applied mathematics}, volume = {311}, journal = {Journal of computational and applied mathematics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0377-0427}, doi = {10.1016/j.cam.2016.08.002}, pages = {342 -- 353}, year = {2017}, abstract = {In this paper we present a Bayesian framework for interpolating data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with a random subdivision scheme, where not only approximations of the values of a function at some missing points can be obtained, but also uncertainty estimates for such predicted values. This random scheme generalizes the usual subdivision by taking into account, at each level, some uncertainty given in terms of suitably scaled noise sequences of i.i.d. Gaussian random variables with zero mean and given variance, and generating, in the limit, a Gaussian process whose correlation structure is characterized and used for computing realizations of the conditional posterior distribution. The hierarchical nature of the procedure may be exploited to reduce the computational cost compared to standard techniques in the case where many prediction points need to be considered.}, language = {en} } @article{HolschneiderLesurMauerbergeretal.2016, author = {Holschneider, Matthias and Lesur, Vincent and Mauerberger, Stefan and Baerenzung, Julien}, title = {Correlation-based modeling and separation of geomagnetic field components}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {121}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1002/2015JB012629}, pages = {3142 -- 3160}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We introduce a technique for the modeling and separation of geomagnetic field components that is based on an analysis of their correlation structures alone. The inversion is based on a Bayesian formulation, which allows the computation of uncertainties. The technique allows the incorporation of complex measurement geometries like observatory data in a simple way. We show how our technique is linked to other well-known inversion techniques. A case study based on observational data is given.}, language = {en} } @article{ZoellerHolschneider2016, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias}, title = {The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {106}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120160220}, pages = {2917 -- 2921}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90\% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.}, language = {en} } @article{BaerenzungHolschneiderLesur2016, author = {B{\"a}renzung, Julien and Holschneider, Matthias and Lesur, Vincent}, title = {constraints}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {121}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1002/2015JB012464}, pages = {1343 -- 1364}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Prior information in ill-posed inverse problem is of critical importance because it is conditioning the posterior solution and its associated variability. The problem of determining the flow evolving at the Earth's core-mantle boundary through magnetic field models derived from satellite or observatory data is no exception to the rule. This study aims to estimate what information can be extracted on the velocity field at the core-mantle boundary, when the frozen flux equation is inverted under very weakly informative, but realistic, prior constraints. Instead of imposing a converging spectrum to the flow, we simply assume that its poloidal and toroidal energy spectra are characterized by power laws. The parameters of the spectra, namely, their magnitudes, and slopes are unknown. The connection between the velocity field, its spectra parameters, and the magnetic field model is established through the Bayesian formulation of the problem. Working in two steps, we determined the time-averaged spectra of the flow within the 2001-2009.5 period, as well as the flow itself and its associated uncertainties in 2005.0. According to the spectra we obtained, we can conclude that the large-scale approximation of the velocity field is not an appropriate assumption within the time window we considered. For the flow itself, we show that although it is dominated by its equatorial symmetric component, it is very unlikely to be perfectly symmetric. We also demonstrate that its geostrophic state is questioned in different locations of the outer core.}, language = {en} } @article{SchroeterRitterHolschneideretal.2016, author = {Schroeter, M-A and Ritter, M. and Holschneider, Matthias and Sturm, H.}, title = {Enhanced DySEM imaging of cantilever motion using artificial structures patterned by focused ion beam techniques}, series = {Journal of micromechanics and microengineering}, volume = {26}, journal = {Journal of micromechanics and microengineering}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {0960-1317}, doi = {10.1088/0960-1317/26/3/035010}, pages = {7}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We use a dynamic scanning electron microscope (DySEM) to map the spatial distribution of the vibration of a cantilever beam. The DySEM measurements are based on variations of the local secondary electron signal within the imaging electron beam diameter during an oscillation period of the cantilever. For this reason, the surface of a cantilever without topography or material variation does not allow any conclusions about the spatial distribution of vibration due to a lack of dynamic contrast. In order to overcome this limitation, artificial structures were added at defined positions on the cantilever surface using focused ion beam lithography patterning. The DySEM signal of such high-contrast structures is strongly improved, hence information about the surface vibration becomes accessible. Simulations of images of the vibrating cantilever have also been performed. The results of the simulation are in good agreement with the experimental images.}, language = {en} } @article{ZoellerHolschneider2016, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias}, title = {The Earthquake History in a Fault Zone Tells Us Almost Nothing about m(max)}, series = {Seismological research letters}, volume = {87}, journal = {Seismological research letters}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0895-0695}, doi = {10.1785/0220150176}, pages = {132 -- 137}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed.}, language = {en} } @article{BoehmHolschneiderLignieresetal.2015, author = {Boehm, Thorsten and Holschneider, Matthias and Lignieres, Frederic and Petit, Pascal and Rainer, Monica and Paletou, Francois and Wade, Gregg and Alecian, Evelyne and Carfantan, Herve and Blazere, Aurore and Mirouh, Giovanni M.}, title = {Discovery of starspots on Vega First spectroscopic detection of surface structures on a normal A-type star}, series = {Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal}, volume = {577}, journal = {Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal}, publisher = {EDP Sciences}, address = {Les Ulis}, issn = {0004-6361}, doi = {10.1051/0004-6361/201425425}, pages = {12}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Context. The theoretically studied impact of rapid rotation on stellar evolution needs to be compared with these results of high-resolution spectroscopy-velocimetry observations. Early-type stars present a perfect laboratory for these studies. The prototype A0 star Vega has been extensively monitored in recent years in spectropolarimetry. A weak surface magnetic field was detected, implying that there might be a (still undetected) structured surface. First indications of the presence of small amplitude stellar radial velocity variations have been reported recently, but the confirmation and in-depth study with the highly stabilized spectrograph SOPHIE/OHP was required. Aims. The goal of this article is to present a thorough analysis of the line profile variations and associated estimators in the early-type standard star Vega (A0) in order to reveal potential activity tracers, exoplanet companions, and stellar oscillations. Methods. Vega was monitored in quasi-continuous high-resolution echelle spectroscopy with the highly stabilized velocimeter SOPHIE/OHP. A total of 2588 high signal-to-noise spectra was obtained during 34.7 h on five nights (2 to 6 of August 2012) in high-resolution mode at R = 75 000 and covering the visible domain from 3895 6270 angstrom. For each reduced spectrum, least square deconvolved equivalent photospheric profiles were calculated with a T-eff = 9500 and log g = 4.0 spectral line mask. Several methods were applied to study the dynamic behaviour of the profile variations (evolution of radial velocity, bisectors, vspan, 2D profiles, amongst others). Results. We present the discovery of a spotted stellar surface on an A-type standard star (Vega) with very faint spot amplitudes Delta F/Fc similar to 5 x 10(-4). A rotational modulation of spectral lines with a period of rotation P = 0.68 d has clearly been exhibited, unambiguously confirming the results of previous spectropolarimetric studies. Most of these brightness inhomogeneities seem to be located in lower equatorial latitudes. Either a very thin convective layer can be responsible for magnetic field generation at small amplitudes, or a new mechanism has to be invoked to explain the existence of activity tracing starspots. At this stage it is difficult to disentangle a rotational from a stellar pulsational origin for the existing higher frequency periodic variations. Conclusions. This first strong evidence that standard A-type stars can show surface structures opens a new field of research and ask about a potential link with the recently discovered weak magnetic field discoveries in this category of stars.}, language = {en} } @article{HolschneiderZoellerClementsetal.2014, author = {Holschneider, Matthias and Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Clements, R. and Schorlemmer, Danijel}, title = {Can we test for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude?}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {119}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1002/2013JB010319}, pages = {2019 -- 2028}, year = {2014}, language = {en} }