@article{NussbaumerSchaubHuggeletal.2014,
  author    = {Nussbaumer, S. and Schaub, Y. and Huggel, C. and Walz, Ariane},
  title     = {Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014},
  pages     = {1611 -- 1624},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential. Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WalzBraendleLangetal.2014,
  author    = {Walz, Ariane and Braendle, J. M. and Lang, D. J. and Brand, Fridolin Simon and Briner, Simon and Elkin, C. and Hirschi, C. and Huber, R. and Lischke, H. and Schmatz, D. R.},
  title     = {Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management},
  series = {Technological forecasting \& social change},
  volume    = {86},
  journal   = {Technological forecasting \& social change},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {0040-1625},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014},
  pages     = {21 -- 32},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional sodo-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor ("Global Trends") directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2014,
  author    = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, Anja and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)},
  number    = {487},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999},
  pages     = {1813 -- 1831},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.},
  language  = {en}
}