@article{SteffenRoeckstromRichardsonetal.2018,
  author    = {Steffen, Will and R{\"o}ckstrom, Johan and Richardson, Katherine and Lenton, Timothy M. and Folke, Carl and Liverman, Diana and Summerhayes, Colin P. and Barnosky, Anthony D. and Cornell, Sarah E. and Crucifix, Michel and Donges, Jonathan Friedemann and Fetzer, Ingo and Lade, Steven J. and Scheffer, Marten and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  title     = {Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {115},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {33},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1810141115},
  pages     = {8252 -- 8259},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{TrietDungMerzetal.2018,
  author    = {Triet, Nguyen Van Khanh and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Merz, Bruno and Apel, Heiko},
  title     = {Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {931},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44603},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446032},
  pages     = {2859 -- 2876},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HickmannWiderbergLedereretal.2021,
  author    = {Hickmann, Thomas and Widerberg, Oscar and Lederer, Markus and Pattberg, Philipp H.},
  title     = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat as an orchestrator in global climate policymaking},
  series = {International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration},
  volume    = {87},
  journal   = {International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Sage},
  address   = {Los Angeles, Calif. [u.a.]},
  issn      = {0020-8523},
  doi       = {10.1177/0020852319840425},
  pages     = {21 -- 38},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Scholars have recently devoted increasing attention to the role and function of international bureaucracies in global policymaking. Some of them contend that international public officials have gained significant political influence in various policy fields. Compared to other international bureaucracies, the political leeway of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been considered rather limited. Due to the specific problem structure of the policy domain of climate change, national governments endowed this intergovernmental treaty secretariat with a relatively narrow mandate. However, this article argues that in the past few years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat has gradually loosened its straitjacket and expanded its original spectrum of activity by engaging different sub-national and non-state actors into a policy dialogue using facilitative orchestration as a mode of governance. The present article explores the recent evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and investigates the way in which it initiates, guides, broadens and strengthens sub-national and non-state climate actions to achieve progress in the international climate negotiations. <br /> Points for practitioners <br /> The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has lately adopted new roles and functions in global climate policymaking. While previously seen as a rather technocratic body that, first and foremost, serves national governments, the Climate Secretariat increasingly interacts with sub-national governments, civil society organizations and private companies to push the global response to climate change forward. We contend that the Climate Secretariat can contribute to global climate policymaking by coordinating and steering the initiatives of non-nation-state actors towards coherence and good practice.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DeFrenneGraaeBrunetetal.2012,
  author    = {De Frenne, Pieter and Graae, Bente J. and Brunet, J{\"o}rg and Shevtsova, Anna and De Schrijver, An and Chabrerie, Olivier and Cousins, Sara A. O. and Decocq, Guillaume and Diekmann, Martin and Hermy, Martin and Heinken, Thilo and Kolb, Annette and Nilsson, Christer and Stanton, Sharon and Verheyen, Kris},
  title     = {The response of forest plant regeneration to temperature variation along a latitudinal gradient},
  series = {Annals of botany},
  volume    = {109},
  journal   = {Annals of botany},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0305-7364},
  doi       = {10.1093/aob/mcs015},
  pages     = {1037 -- 1046},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {The response of forest herb regeneration from seed to temperature variations across latitudes was experimentally assessed in order to forecast the likely response of understorey community dynamics to climate warming. Seeds of two characteristic forest plants (Anemone nemorosa and Milium effusum) were collected in natural populations along a latitudinal gradient from northern France to northern Sweden and exposed to three temperature regimes in growth chambers (first experiment). To test the importance of local adaptation, reciprocal transplants were also made of adult individuals that originated from the same populations in three common gardens located in southern, central and northern sites along the same gradient, and the resulting seeds were germinated (second experiment). Seedling establishment was quantified by measuring the timing and percentage of seedling emergence, and seedling biomass in both experiments. Spring warming increased emergence rates and seedling growth in the early-flowering forb A. nemorosa. Seedlings of the summer-flowering grass M. effusum originating from northern populations responded more strongly in terms of biomass growth to temperature than southern populations. The above-ground biomass of the seedlings of both species decreased with increasing latitude of origin, irrespective of whether seeds were collected from natural populations or from the common gardens. The emergence percentage decreased with increasing home-away distance in seeds from the transplant experiment, suggesting that the maternal plants were locally adapted. Decreasing seedling emergence and growth were found from the centre to the northern edge of the distribution range for both species. Stronger responses to temperature variation in seedling growth of the grass M. effusum in the north may offer a way to cope with environmental change. The results further suggest that climate warming might differentially affect seedling establishment of understorey plants across their distribution range and thus alter future understorey plant dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchneiderWalsh2019,
  author    = {Schneider, Birgit and Walsh, Lynda},
  title     = {The politics of zoom},
  series = {Geo: Geography and Environment},
  volume    = {6},
  journal   = {Geo: Geography and Environment},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2054-4049},
  doi       = {10.1002/geo2.70},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Following the mandate in the Paris Agreement for signatories to provide "climate services" to their constituents, "downscaled" climate visualizations are proliferating. But the process of downscaling climate visualizations does not neutralize the political problems with their synoptic global sources—namely, their failure to empower communities to take action and their replication of neoliberal paradigms of globalization. In this study we examine these problems as they apply to interactive climate-visualization platforms, which allow their users to localize global climate information to support local political action. By scrutinizing the political implications of the "zoom" tool from the perspective of media studies and rhetoric, we add to perspectives of cultural cartography on the issue of scaling from our fields. Namely, we break down the cinematic trope of "zooming" to reveal how it imports the political problems of synopticism to the level of individual communities. As a potential antidote to the politics of zoom, we recommend a downscaling strategy of connectivity, which associates rather than reduces situated views of climate to global ones.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{SchneiderWalsh2019,
  author    = {Schneider, Birgit and Walsh, Lynda},
  title     = {The politics of zoom},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Philosophische Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Philosophische Reihe},
  number    = {159},
  issn      = {1866-8380},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42481},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424819},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Following the mandate in the Paris Agreement for signatories to provide "climate services" to their constituents, "downscaled" climate visualizations are proliferating. But the process of downscaling climate visualizations does not neutralize the political problems with their synoptic global sources—namely, their failure to empower communities to take action and their replication of neoliberal paradigms of globalization. In this study we examine these problems as they apply to interactive climate-visualization platforms, which allow their users to localize global climate information to support local political action. By scrutinizing the political implications of the "zoom" tool from the perspective of media studies and rhetoric, we add to perspectives of cultural cartography on the issue of scaling from our fields. Namely, we break down the cinematic trope of "zooming" to reveal how it imports the political problems of synopticism to the level of individual communities. As a potential antidote to the politics of zoom, we recommend a downscaling strategy of connectivity, which associates rather than reduces situated views of climate to global ones.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LevermannClarkMarzeionetal.2013,
  author    = {Levermann, Anders and Clark, Peter U. and Marzeion, Ben and Milne, Glenn A. and Pollard, David and Radic, Valentina and Robinson, Alexander},
  title     = {The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {110},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {34},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1219414110},
  pages     = {13745 -- 13750},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m degrees C-1 and 1.2 m degrees C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m degrees C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Fuerstenau2008,
  author    = {F{\"u}rstenau, Cornelia},
  title     = {The impact of silvicultural strategies and climate change on carbon sequestration and other forest ecosystem functions},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-27657},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2008},
  abstract  = {Forests are a key resource serving a multitude of functions such as providing income to forest owners, supplying industries with timber, protecting water resources, and maintaining biodiversity. Recently much attention has been given to the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and their management for increased carbon sequestration as a possible mitigation option against climate change. Furthermore, the use of harvested wood can contribute to the reduction of atmospheric carbon through (i) carbon sequestration in wood products, (ii) the substitution of non-wood products with wood products, and (iii) through the use of wood as a biofuel to replace fossil fuels. Forest resource managers are challenged by the task to balance these multiple while simultaneously meeting economic requirements and taking into consideration the demands of stakeholder groups. Additionally, risks and uncertainties with regard to uncontrollable external variables such as climate have to be considered in the decision making process. In this study a scientific stakeholder dialogue with forest-related stakeholder groups in the Federal State of Brandenburg was accomplished. The main results of this dialogue were the definition of major forest functions (carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) and priority setting among them by the stakeholders using the pair-wise comparison technique. The impact of different forest management strategies and climate change scenarios on the main functions of forest ecosystems were evaluated at the Kleinsee management unit in south-east Brandenburg. Forest management strategies were simulated over 100 years using the forest growth model 4C and a wood product model (WPM). A current climate scenario and two climate change scenarios based on global circulation models (GCMs) HadCM2 and ECHAM4 were applied. The climate change scenario positively influenced stand productivity, carbon sequestration, and income. The impact on the other forest functions was small. Furthermore, the overall utility of forest management strategies were compared under the priority settings of stakeholders by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. Significant differences in priority setting and the choice of an adequate management strategy were found for the environmentalists on one side and the more economy-oriented forest managers of public and private owned forests on the other side. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions. The analysis served as an example for the combined application of simulation tools and a MCA method for the evaluation of management strategies under multi-purpose and multi-user settings with changing climatic conditions. Another focus was set on quantifying the overall effect of forest management on carbon sequestration in the forest sector and the wood industry sector plus substitution effects. To achieve this objective, the carbon emission reduction potential of material and energy substitution (Smat and Sen) was estimated based on a literature review. On average, for each tonne of dry wood used in a wood product substituting a non-wood product, 0.71 fewer tonnes of fossil carbon are emitted into to the atmosphere. Based on Smat and Sen, the calculation of the carbon emission reduction through substitution was implemented in the WPM. Carbon sequestration and substitution effects of management strategies were simulated at three local scales using the WPM and the forest growth models 4C (management unit level) or EFISCEN (federal state of Brandenburg and Germany). An investigation was conducted on the influence of uncertainties in the initialisation of the WPM, Smat, and basic conditions of the wood product sector on carbon sequestration. Results showed that carbon sequestration in the wood industry sector plus substitution effects exceeded sequestration in the forest sector. In contrast to the carbon pools in the forest sector, which acted as sink or source, the substitution effects continually reduced carbon emission as long as forests are managed and timber is harvested. The main climate protection function was investigated for energy substitution which accounted for about half of the total carbon sequestration, followed by carbon storage in landfills. In Germany, the absolute annual carbon sequestration in the forest and wood industry sector plus substitution effects was 19.9 Mt C. Over 50 years the wood industry sector contributed 70\% of the total carbon sequestration plus substitution effects.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KalkuhlWenz2020,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Wenz, Leonie},
  title     = {The impact of climate conditions on economic production},
  series = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  volume    = {103},
  journal   = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0095-0696},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7-14\% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73-142\$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92-181\$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HickmannStehle2019,
  author    = {Hickmann, Thomas and Stehle, Fee},
  title     = {The Embeddedness of Urban Climate Politics in Multilevel Governance},
  series = {The journal of environment \& development : a review of international policy},
  volume    = {28},
  journal   = {The journal of environment \& development : a review of international policy},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Sage Publ.},
  address   = {Thousand Oaks},
  issn      = {1070-4965},
  doi       = {10.1177/1070496518819121},
  pages     = {54 -- 77},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Numerous scholars have lately highlighted the importance of cities in the global response to climate change. However, we still have little systematic knowledge on the evolution of urban climate politics in the Global South. In particular, we lack empirical studies that examine how local climate actions arise in political-administrative systems of developing and emerging economies. Therefore, this article adopts a multilevel governance perspective to explore the climate mitigation responses of three major cities in South Africa by looking at their vertical and horizontal integration in the wider governance framework. In the absence of a coherent national climate policy, Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban have developed distinct climate actions within their jurisdictions. In their effort to address climate change, transnational city networks have provided considerable technical support to these cities. Yet, substantial domestic political-economic obstacles hinder the three cities to develop a more ambitious stance on climate change.},
  language  = {en}
}