@article{HainzlZoellerWang2010,
  author    = {Hainzl, Sebastian and Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Wang, Rongjiang},
  title     = {Impact of the receiver fault distribution on aftershock activity},
  issn      = {0148-0227},
  doi       = {10.1029/2008jb006224},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Aftershock models are usually based either on purely empirical relations ignoring the physical mechanism or on deterministic calculations of stress changes on a predefined receiver fault orientation. Here we investigate the effect of considering more realistic fault systems in models based on static Coulomb stress changes. For that purpose, we perform earthquake simulations with elastic half-space stress interactions, rate-and-state dependent frictional earthquake nucleation, and extended ruptures with heterogeneous (fractal) slip distributions. We find that the consideration of earthquake nucleation on multiple receiver fault orientations does not influence the shape of the temporal Omori-type aftershock decay, but changes significantly the predicted spatial patterns and the total number of triggered events. So-called stress shadows with decreased activity almost vanish, and activation decays continuously with increasing distance from the main shock rupture. The total aftershock productivity, which is shown to be almost independent of the assumed background rate, increases significantly if multiple receiver fault planes exist. The application to the 1992 M7.3 Landers, California, aftershock sequence indicates a good agreement with the locations and the total productivity of the observed directly triggered aftershocks.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HainzlBrietzkeZoeller2010,
  author    = {Hainzl, Sebastian and Brietzke, Gilbert B. and Z{\"o}ller, Gert},
  title     = {Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress triggering},
  issn      = {0148-0227},
  doi       = {10.1029/2010jb007473},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {In recent years, the triggering of earthquakes has been discussed controversially with respect to the underlying mechanisms and the capability to evaluate the resulting seismic hazard. Apart from static stress interactions, other mechanisms including dynamic stress transfer have been proposed to be part of a complex triggering process. Exploiting the theoretical relation between long-term earthquake rates and stressing rate, we demonstrate that static stress changes resulting from an earthquake rupture allow us to predict quantitatively the aftershock activity without tuning specific model parameters. These forecasts are found to be in excellent agreement with all first-order characteristics of aftershocks, in particular, (1) the total number, (2) the power law distance decay, (3) the scaling of the productivity with the main shock magnitude, (4) the foreshock probability, and (5) the empirical Bath law providing the maximum aftershock magnitude, which supports the conclusion that static stress transfer is the major mechanism of earthquake triggering.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZoellerHainzlHolschneider2010,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Holschneider, Matthias},
  title     = {Recurrence of Large Earthquakes : bayesian inference from catalogs in the presence of magnitude uncertainties},
  issn      = {0033-4553},
  doi       = {10.1007/s00024-010-0078-0},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {We present a Bayesian method that allows continuous updating the aperiodicity of the recurrence time distribution of large earthquakes based on a catalog with magnitudes above a completeness threshold. The approach uses a recently proposed renewal model for seismicity and allows the inclusion of magnitude uncertainties in a straightforward manner. Errors accounting for grouped magnitudes and random errors are studied and discussed. The results indicate that a stable and realistic value of the aperiodicity can be predicted in an early state of seismicity evolution, even though only a small number of large earthquakes has occurred to date. Furthermore, we demonstrate that magnitude uncertainties can drastically influence the results and can therefore not be neglected. We show how to correct for the bias caused by magnitude errors. For the region of Parkfield we find that the aperiodicity, or the coefficient of variation, is clearly higher than in studies which are solely based on the large earthquakes.},
  language  = {en}
}