@phdthesis{Veh2019,
  author    = {Veh, Georg},
  title     = {Outburst floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Himalayas},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43607},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436071},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {124},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes. Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988-2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10\% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research. This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/-2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/-4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram. To conclude, these three stages-from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard-provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Ghani2019,
  author    = {Ghani, Humaad},
  title     = {Structural evolution of the Kohat and Potwar fold and thrust belts of Pakistan},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44077},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-440775},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {viii, 121},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Fold and thrust belts are characteristic features of collisional orogen that grow laterally through time by deforming the upper crust in response to stresses caused by convergence. The deformation propagation in the upper crust is accommodated by shortening along major folds and thrusts. The formation of these structures is influenced by the mechanical strength of d{\´e}collements, basement architecture, presence of preexisting structures and taper of the wedge. These factors control not only the sequence of deformation but also cause differences in the structural style. The Himalayan fold and thrust belt exhibits significant differences in the structural style from east to west. The external zone of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt, also called the Subhimalaya, has been extensively studied to understand the temporal development and differences in the structural style in Bhutan, Nepal and India; however, the Subhimalaya in Pakistan remains poorly studied. The Kohat and Potwar fold and thrust belts (herein called Kohat and Potwar) represent the Subhimalaya in Pakistan. The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) marks the northern boundary of both Kohat and Potwar, showing that these belts are genetically linked to foreland-vergent deformation within the Himalayan orogen, despite the pronounced contrast in structural style. This contrast becomes more pronounced toward south, where the active strike-slip Kalabagh Fault Zone links with the Kohat and Potwar range fronts, known as the Surghar Range and the Salt Range, respectively. The Surghar and Salt Ranges developed above the Surghar Thrust (SGT) and Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). In order to understand the structural style and spatiotemporal development of the major structures in Kohat and Potwar, I have used structural modeling and low temperature thermochronolgy methods in this study. The structural modeling is based on construction of balanced cross-sections by integrating surface geology, seismic reflection profiles and well data. In order to constrain the timing and magnitude of exhumation, I used apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe) and apatite fission track (AFT) dating. The results obtained from both methods are combined to document the Paleozoic to Recent history of Kohat and Potwar. The results of this research suggest two major events in the deformation history. The first major deformation event is related to Late Paleozoic rifting associated with the development of the Neo-Tethys Ocean. The second major deformation event is related to the Late Miocene to Pliocene development of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt in the Kohat and Potwar. The Late Paleozoic rifting is deciphered by inverse thermal modelling of detrital AFT and AHe ages from the Salt Range. The process of rifting in this area created normal faulting that resulted in the exhumation/erosion of Early to Middle Paleozoic strata, forming a major unconformity between Cambrian and Permian strata that is exposed today in the Salt Range. The normal faults formed in Late Paleozoic time played an important role in localizing the Miocene-Pliocene deformation in this area. The combination of structural reconstructions and thermochronologic data suggest that deformation initiated at 15±2 Ma on the SGT ramp in the southern part of Kohat. The early movement on the SGT accreted the foreland into the Kohat deforming wedge, forming the range front. The development of the MBT at 12±2 Ma formed the northern boundary of Kohat and Potwar. Deformation propagated south of the MBT in the Kohat on double d{\´e}collements and in the Potwar on a single basal d{\´e}collement. The double d{\´e}collement in the Kohat adopted an active roof-thrust deformation style that resulted in the disharmonic structural style in the upper and lower parts of the stratigraphic section. Incremental shortening resulted in the development of duplexes in the subsurface between two d{\´e}collements and imbrication above the roof thrust. Tectonic thickening caused by duplexes resulted in cooling and exhumation above the roof thrust by removal of a thick sequence of molasse strata. The structural modelling shows that the ramps on which duplexes formed in Kohat continue as tip lines of fault propagation folds in the Potwar. The absence of a double d{\´e}collement in the Potwar resulted in the preservation of a thick sequence of molasse strata there. The temporal data suggest that deformation propagated in-sequence from ~ 8 to 3 Ma in the northern part of Kohat and Potwar; however, internal deformation in the Kohat was more intense, probably required for maintaining a critical taper after a significant load was removed above the upper d{\´e}collement. In the southern part of Potwar, a steeper basement slope (β≥3°) and the presence of salt at the base of the stratigraphic section allowed for the complete preservation of the stratigraphic wedge, showcased by very little internal deformation. Activation of the MFT at ~4 Ma allowed the Salt Range to become the range front of the Potwar. The removal of a large amount of molasse strata above the MFT ramp enhanced the role of salt in shaping the structural style of the Salt Range and Kalabagh Fault Zone. Salt accumulation and migration resulted in the formation of normal faults in both areas. Salt migration in the Kalabagh fault zone has triggered out-of-sequence movement on ramps in the Kohat. The amount of shortening calculated between the MBT and the SGT in Kohat is 75±5 km and between the MBT and the MFT in Potwar is 65±5 km. A comparable amount of shortening is accommodated in the Kohat and Potwar despite their different widths: 70 km Kohat and 150 km Potwar. In summary, this research suggests that deformation switched between different structures during the last ~15 Ma through different modes of fault propagation, resulting in different structural styles and the out-of-sequence development of Kohat and Potwar.},
  language  = {en}
}