@article{ImholtReilEccardetal.2015,
  author    = {Imholt, Christian and Reil, Daniela and Eccard, Jana and Jacob, Daniela and Hempelmann, Nils and Jacob, Jens},
  title     = {Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus)},
  series = {Pest management science},
  volume    = {71},
  journal   = {Pest management science},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1526-498X},
  doi       = {10.1002/ps.3838},
  pages     = {166 -- 172},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {BACKGROUND Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. RESULTS Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. CONCLUSION Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. (c) 2014 Society of Chemical Industry},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{HeinkenWinkler2009,
  author    = {Heinken, Thilo and Winkler, Eckart},
  title     = {Non-random dispersal by ants : long-term field data versus model predictions of population spread of a forest herb},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-46482},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {Myrmecochory, i.e. dispersal of seeds by ants towards and around their nests, plays an important role in temperate forests. Yet hardly any study has examined plant population spread over several years and the underlying joint contribution of a hierarchy of dispersal modes and plant demography. We used a seed-sowing approach with three replicates to examine colonization patterns of Melampyrum pratense, an annual myrmecochorous herb, in a mixed Scots pine forest in northeastern Germany. Using a spatially explicit individualbased (SEIB) model population patterns over 4 years were explained by short-distance transport of seeds by small ant species with high nest densities, resulting in random spread. However, plant distributions in the field after another 4 years were clearly deviating from model predictions. Mean annual spread rate increased from 0.9 m to 5.1 m per year, with a clear inhomogeneous component. Obviously, after a lag-phase of several years, non-random seed dispersal by large red wood ants (Formica rufa) was determining the species' spread, thus resulting in stratified dispersal due to interactions with different-sized ant species. Hypotheses on stratified dispersal, on dispersal lag, and on non-random dispersal were verified using an extended SEIB model, by comparison of model outputs with field patterns (individual numbers, population areas, and maximum distances). Dispersal towards red wood ant nests together with seed loss during transport and redistribution around nests were essential features of the model extension. The observed lag-phase in the initiation of non-random, medium-distance transport was probably due to a change of ant behaviour towards a new food source of increasing importance, being a meaningful example for a lag-phase in local plant species invasion. The results demonstrate that field studies should check model predictions wherever possible. Future research will show whether or not the M. pratense-ant system is representative for migration patterns of similar animal dispersal systems after having crossed range edges by long-distance dispersal events.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GrimmSeyfarthMihoubGruberetal.2018,
  author    = {Grimm-Seyfarth, Annegret and Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste and Gruber, Bernd and Henle, Klaus},
  title     = {Some like it hot},
  series = {Ecological monographs},
  volume    = {88},
  journal   = {Ecological monographs},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0012-9615},
  doi       = {10.1002/ecm.1301},
  pages     = {336 -- 352},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Accumulating evidence has demonstrated considerable impact of climate change on biodiversity, with terrestrial ectotherms being particularly vulnerable. While climate-induced range shifts are often addressed in the literature, little is known about the underlying ecological responses at individual and population levels. Using a 30-yr monitoring study of the long-living nocturnal gecko Gehyra variegata in arid Australia, we determined the relative contribution of climatic factors acting locally (temperature, rainfall) or distantly (La Nina induced flooding) on ecological processes ranging from traits at the individual level (body condition, body growth) to the demography at population level (survival, sexual maturity, population sizes). We also investigated whether thermoregulatory activity during both active (night) and resting (daytime) periods of the day can explain these responses. Gehyra variegata responded to local and distant climatic effects. Both high temperatures and high water availability enhanced individual and demographic parameters. Moreover, the impact of water availability was scale independent as local rainfall and La Nina induced flooding compensated each other. When water availability was low, however, extremely high temperatures delayed body growth and sexual maturity while survival of individuals and population sizes remained stable. This suggests a trade-off with traits at the individual level that may potentially buffer the consequences of adverse climatic conditions at the population level. Moreover, hot temperatures did not impact nocturnal nor diurnal behavior. Instead, only cool temperatures induced diurnal thermoregulatory behavior with individuals moving to exposed hollow branches and even outside tree hollows for sun-basking during the day. Since diurnal behavioral thermoregulation likely induced costs on fitness, this could decrease performance at both individual and population level under cool temperatures. Our findings show that water availability rather than high temperature is the limiting factor in our focal population of G.variegata. In contrast to previous studies, we stress that drier rather than warmer conditions are expected to be detrimental for nocturnal desert reptiles. Identifying the actual limiting climatic factors at different scales and their functional interactions at different ecological levels is critical to be able to predict reliably future population dynamics and support conservation planning in arid ecosystems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BauerVosKlauschiesetal.2014,
  author    = {Bauer, Barbara and Vos, Matthijs and Klauschies, Toni and Gaedke, Ursula},
  title     = {Diversity, functional similarity, and top-down control drive synchronization and the reliability of ecosystem function},
  series = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences},
  volume    = {183},
  journal   = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Univ. of Chicago Press},
  address   = {Chicago},
  issn      = {0003-0147},
  doi       = {10.1086/674906},
  pages     = {394 -- 409},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {The concept that diversity promotes reliability of ecosystem function depends on the pattern that community-level biomass shows lower temporal variability than species-level biomasses. However, this pattern is not universal, as it relies on compensatory or independent species dynamics. When in contrast within--trophic level synchronization occurs, variability of community biomass will approach population-level variability. Current knowledge fails to integrate how species richness, functional distance between species, and the relative importance of predation and competition combine to drive synchronization at different trophic levels. Here we clarify these mechanisms. Intense competition promotes compensatory dynamics in prey, but predators may at the same time increasingly synchronize, under increasing species richness and functional similarity. In contrast, predators and prey both show perfect synchronization under strong top-down control, which is promoted by a combination of low functional distance and high net growth potential of predators. Under such conditions, community-level biomass variability peaks, with major negative consequences for reliability of ecosystem function.},
  language  = {en}
}