@phdthesis{Šedova2022, author = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora}, title = {Heterogeneous effects of weather and climate change on human migration}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53673}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-536733}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xix, 284}, year = {2022}, abstract = {While estimated numbers of past and future climate migrants are alarming, the growing empirical evidence suggests that the association between adverse climate-related events and migration is not universally positive. This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of when and how climate migration emerges by analyzing heterogeneous climatic influences on migration in low- and middle-income countries. To this end, it draws on established economic theories of migration, datasets from physical and social sciences, causal inference techniques and approaches from systematic literature review. In three of its five chapters, I estimate causal effects of processes of climate change on inequality and migration in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. By employing interaction terms and by analyzing sub-samples of data, I explore how these relationships differ for various segments of the population. In the remaining two chapters, I present two systematic literature reviews. First, I undertake a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the econometric climate migration literature to summarize general climate migration patterns and explain the conflicting findings. Second, motivated by the broad range of approaches in the field, I examine the literature from a methodological perspective to provide best practice guidelines for studying climate migration empirically. Overall, the evidence from this dissertation shows that climatic influences on human migration are highly heterogeneous. Whether adverse climate-related impacts materialize in migration depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the individual households, such as wealth, level of education, agricultural dependence or access to adaptation technologies and insurance. For instance, I show that while adverse climatic shocks are generally associated with an increase in migration in rural India, they reduce migration in the agricultural context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average wealth levels are much lower so that households largely cannot afford the upfront costs of moving. I find that unlike local climatic shocks which primarily enhance internal migration to cities and hence accelerate urbanization, shocks transmitted via agricultural producer prices increase migration to neighboring countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. These findings advance our current understanding by showing when and how economic agents respond to climatic events, thus providing explicit contexts and mechanisms of climate change effects on migration in the future. The resulting collection of findings can guide policy interventions to avoid or mitigate any present and future welfare losses from climate change-related migration choices.}, language = {en} } @article{WehrhanSommer2021, author = {Wehrhan, Marc and Sommer, Michael}, title = {A parsimonious approach to estimate soil organic carbon applying Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) multispectral imagery and the topographic position index in a heterogeneous soil landscape}, series = {Remote sensing / Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)}, volume = {13}, journal = {Remote sensing / Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)}, number = {18}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2072-4292}, doi = {10.3390/rs13183557}, pages = {20}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Remote sensing plays an increasingly key role in the determination of soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in agriculturally managed topsoils at the regional and field scales. Contemporary Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) carrying low-cost and lightweight multispectral sensors provide high spatial resolution imagery (<10 cm). These capabilities allow integrate of UAS-derived soil data and maps into digitalized workflows for sustainable agriculture. However, the common situation of scarce soil data at field scale might be an obstacle for accurate digital soil mapping. In our case study we tested a fixed-wing UAS equipped with visible and near infrared (VIS-NIR) sensors to estimate topsoil SOC distribution at two fields under the constraint of limited sampling points, which were selected by pedological knowledge. They represent all releva nt soil types along an erosion-deposition gradient; hence, the full feature space in terms of topsoils' SOC status. We included the Topographic Position Index (TPI) as a co-variate for SOC prediction. Our study was performed in a soil landscape of hummocky ground moraines, which represent a significant of global arable land. Herein, small scale soil variability is mainly driven by tillage erosion which, in turn, is strongly dependent on topography. Relationships between SOC, TPI and spectral information were tested by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) using: (i) single field data (local approach) and (ii) data from both fields (pooled approach). The highest prediction performance determined by a leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV) was obtained for the models using the reflectance at 570 nm in conjunction with the TPI as explanatory variables for the local approach (coefficient of determination (R-2) = 0.91; root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.11\% and R-2 = 0.48; RMSE = 0.33, respectively). The local MLR models developed with both reflectance and TPI using values from all points showed high correlations and low prediction errors for SOC content (R-2 = 0.88, RMSE = 0.07\%; R-2 = 0.79, RMSE = 0.06\%, respectively). The comparison with an enlarged dataset consisting of all points from both fields (pooled approach) showed no improvement of the prediction accuracy but yielded decreased prediction errors. Lastly, the local MLR models were applied to the data of the respective other field to evaluate the cross-field prediction ability. The spatial SOC pattern generally remains unaffected on both fields; differences, however, occur concerning the predicted SOC level. Our results indicate a high potential of the combination of UAS-based remote sensing and environmental covariates, such as terrain attributes, for the prediction of topsoil SOC content at the field scale. The temporal flexibility of UAS offer the opportunity to optimize flight conditions including weather and soil surface status (plant cover or residuals, moisture and roughness) which, otherwise, might obscure the relationship between spectral data and SOC content. Pedologically targeted selection of soil samples for model development appears to be the key for an efficient and effective prediction even with a small dataset.}, language = {en} } @misc{WehrhanRaunekerSommer2016, author = {Wehrhan, Marc and Rauneker, Philipp and Sommer, Michael}, title = {UAV-Based estimation of carbon exports from heterogeneous soil landscapes}, series = {Sensors}, journal = {Sensors}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407706}, pages = {24}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The advantages of remote sensing using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are a high spatial resolution of images, temporal flexibility and narrow-band spectral data from different wavelengths domains. This enables the detection of spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental variables, like plant-related carbon dynamics in agricultural landscapes. In this paper, we quantify spatial patterns of fresh phytomass and related carbon (C) export using imagery captured by a 12-band multispectral camera mounted on the fixed wing UAV Carolo P360. The study was performed in 2014 at the experimental area CarboZALF-D in NE Germany. From radiometrically corrected and calibrated images of lucerne (Medicago sativa), the performance of four commonly used vegetation indices (VIs) was tested using band combinations of six near-infrared bands. The highest correlation between ground-based measurements of fresh phytomass of lucerne and VIs was obtained for the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) using near-infrared band b(899). The resulting map was transformed into dry phytomass and finally upscaled to total C export by harvest. The observed spatial variability at field- and plot-scale could be attributed to small-scale soil heterogeneity in part.}, language = {en} } @article{WehrhanRaunekerSommer2016, author = {Wehrhan, Marc and Rauneker, Philipp and Sommer, Michael}, title = {UAV-Based Estimation of Carbon Exports from Heterogeneous Soil Landscapes-A Case Study from the CarboZALF Experimental Area}, series = {SENSORS}, volume = {16}, journal = {SENSORS}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {1424-8220}, doi = {10.3390/s16020255}, pages = {24}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The advantages of remote sensing using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are a high spatial resolution of images, temporal flexibility and narrow-band spectral data from different wavelengths domains. This enables the detection of spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental variables, like plant-related carbon dynamics in agricultural landscapes. In this paper, we quantify spatial patterns of fresh phytomass and related carbon (C) export using imagery captured by a 12-band multispectral camera mounted on the fixed wing UAV Carolo P360. The study was performed in 2014 at the experimental area CarboZALF-D in NE Germany. From radiometrically corrected and calibrated images of lucerne (Medicago sativa), the performance of four commonly used vegetation indices (VIs) was tested using band combinations of six near-infrared bands. The highest correlation between ground-based measurements of fresh phytomass of lucerne and VIs was obtained for the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) using near-infrared band b(899). The resulting map was transformed into dry phytomass and finally upscaled to total C export by harvest. The observed spatial variability at field- and plot-scale could be attributed to small-scale soil heterogeneity in part.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Rolf2020, author = {Rolf, Werner}, title = {Peri-urban farmland included in green infrastructure strategies promotes transformation pathways towards sustainable urban development}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47700}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-477002}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {IV, 116}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Urbanization and agricultural land use are two of the main drivers of global changes with effects on ecosystem functions and human wellbeing. Green Infrastructure is a new approach in spatial planning contributing to sustainable urban development, and to address urban challenges, such as biodiversity conservation, climate change adaptation, green economy development, and social cohesion. Because the research focus has been mainly on open green space structures, such as parks, urban forest, green building, street green, but neglected spatial and functional potentials of utilizable agricultural land, this thesis aims at fill this gap. This cumulative thesis addresses how agricultural land in urban and peri-urban landscapes can contribute to the development of urban green infrastructure as a strategy to promote sustainable urban development. Therefore, a number of different research approaches have been applied. First, a quantitative, GIS-based modeling approach looked at spatial potentials, addressing the heterogeneity of peri-urban landscape that defines agricultural potentials and constraints. Second, a participatory approach was applied, involving stakeholder opinions to evaluate multiple urban functions and benefits. Finally, an evidence synthesis was conducted to assess the current state of research on evidence to support future policy making at different levels. The results contribute to the conceptual understanding of urban green infrastructures as a strategic spatial planning approach that incorporates inner-urban utilizable agricultural land and the agriculturally dominated landscape at the outer urban fringe. It highlights the proposition that the linkage of peri-urban farmland with the green infrastructure concept can contribute to a network of multifunctional green spaces to provide multiple benefits to the urban system and to successfully address urban challenges. Four strategies are introduced for spatial planning with the contribution of peri-urban farmland to a strategically planned multifunctional network, namely the connecting, the productive, the integrated, and the adapted way. Finally, this thesis sheds light on the opportunities that arise from the integration of the peri- urban farmland in the green infrastructure concept to support transformation towards a more sustainable urban development. In particular, the inherent core planning principle of multifunctionality endorses the idea of co-benefits that are considered crucial to trigger transformative processes. This work concludes that the linkage of peri-urban farmland with the green infrastructure concept is a promising action field for the development of new pathways for urban transformation towards sustainable urban development. Along with these outcomes, attention is drawn to limitations that remain to be addressed by future research, especially the identification of further mechanisms required to support policy integration at all levels.}, language = {en} } @misc{PradhanFischerVelthuizenetal.2015, author = {Pradhan, Prajal and Fischer, G{\"u}nther and Velthuizen, Harrij van and Reusser, Dominik Edwin and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Closing yield gaps}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {491}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408105}, pages = {18}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24\% and 80\% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46\%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented.}, language = {en} } @article{NeillJankowskiBrandoetal.2017, author = {Neill, Christopher and Jankowski, KathiJo and Brando, Paulo M. and Coe, Michael T. and Deegan, Linda A. and Macedo, Marcia N. and Riskin, Shelby H. and Porder, Stephen and Elsenbeer, Helmut and Krusche, Alex V.}, title = {Surprisingly Modest Water Quality Impacts From Expansion and Intensification of Large-Sscale Commercial Agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon-Cerrado Region}, series = {Tropical conservation science}, volume = {10}, journal = {Tropical conservation science}, publisher = {Sage Publ.}, address = {Thousand Oaks}, issn = {1940-0829}, doi = {10.1177/1940082917720669}, pages = {5}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Large-scale commercial cropping of soybeans expanded in the tropical Amazon and Cerrado biomes of Brazil after 1990. More recently, cropping intensified from single-cropping of soybeans to double-cropping of soybeans with corn or cotton. Cropland expansion and intensification, and the accompanying use of mineral fertilizers, raise concerns about whether nutrient runoff and impacts to surface waters will be similar to those experienced in commercial cropland regions at temperate latitudes. We quantified water infiltration through soils, water yield, and streamwater chemistry in watersheds draining native tropical forest and single-and double-cropped areas on the level, deep, highly weathered soils where cropland expansion and intensification typically occurs. Although water yield increased four-fold from croplands, streamwater chemistry remained largely unchanged. Soil characteristics exerted important control over the movement of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into streams. High soil infiltration rates prevented surface erosion and movement of particulate P, while P fixation in surface soils restricted P movement to deeper soil layers. Nitrogen retention in deep soils, likely by anion exchange, also appeared to limit N leaching and export in streamwater from both single-and double-cropped watersheds that received nitrogen fertilizer. These mechanisms led to lower streamwater P and N concentrations and lower watershed N and P export than would be expected, based on studies from temperate croplands with similar cropping and fertilizer application practices.}, language = {en} } @article{MerfortBauerHumpenoederetal.2023, author = {Merfort, Leon and Bauer, Nico and Humpen{\"o}der, Florian and Klein, David and Strefler, Jessica and Popp, Alexander and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar}, title = {Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {13}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2}, pages = {685 -- 692}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ-1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ-1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ-1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90\%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.}, language = {en} } @article{MerfortBauerHumpenoederetal.2023, author = {Merfort, Leon and Bauer, Nico and Humpen{\"o}der, Florian and Klein, David and Strefler, Jessica and Popp, Alexander and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar}, title = {State of global land regulation inadequate to control biofuel land-use-change emissions}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {13}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-023-01711-7}, pages = {610 -- 612}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.}, language = {en} } @misc{MayerUllmannSundeetal.2018, author = {Mayer, Martin and Ullmann, Wiebke and Sunde, Peter and Fischer, Christina and Blaum, Niels}, title = {Habitat selection by the European hare in arable landscapes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1076}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46789}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-467891}, pages = {17}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Agricultural land-use practices have intensified over the last decades, leading to population declines of various farmland species, including the European hare (Lepus europaeus). In many European countries, arable fields dominate agricultural landscapes. Compared to pastures, arable land is highly variable, resulting in a large spatial variation of food and cover for wildlife over the course of the year, which potentially affects habitat selection by hares. Here, we investigated within-home-range habitat selection by hares in arable areas in Denmark and Germany to identify habitat requirements for their conservation. We hypothesized that hare habitat selection would depend on local habitat structure, that is, vegetation height, but also on agricultural field size, vegetation type, and proximity to field edges. Active hares generally selected for short vegetation (1-25 cm) and avoided higher vegetation and bare ground, especially when fields were comparatively larger. Vegetation >50 cm potentially restricts hares from entering parts of their home range and does not provide good forage, the latter also being the case on bare ground. The vegetation type was important for habitat selection by inactive hares, with fabaceae, fallow, and maize being selected for, potentially providing both cover and forage. Our results indicate that patches of shorter vegetation could improve the forage quality and habitat accessibility for hares, especially in areas with large monocultures. Thus, policymakers should aim to increase areas with short vegetation throughout the year. Further, permanent set-asides, like fallow and wildflower areas, would provide year-round cover for inactive hares. Finally, the reduction in field sizes would increase the density of field margins, and farming different crop types within small areas could improve the habitat for hares and other farmland species.}, language = {en} }