@article{ZhelayskayaVasileShpritsetal.2019, author = {Zhelayskaya, Irina S. and Vasile, Ruggero and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Stolle, Claudia and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Systematic Analysis of Machine Learning and Feature Selection Techniques for Prediction of the Kp Index}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {17}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {10}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2019SW002271}, pages = {1461 -- 1486}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The Kp index is a measure of the midlatitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short-term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hr. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals, and show how this selection can affect model performance.}, language = {en} } @article{YamazakiStolleMatzkaetal.2017, author = {Yamazaki, Yosuke and Stolle, Claudia and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan and Luehr, Hermann and Alken, Patrick}, title = {Longitudinal Variation of the Lunar Tide in the Equatorial Electrojet}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {122}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1002/2017JA024601}, pages = {12445 -- 12463}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The atmospheric lunar tide is one known source of ionospheric variability. The subject received renewed attention as recent studies found a link between stratospheric sudden warmings and amplified lunar tidal perturbations in the equatorial ionosphere. There is increasing evidence from ground observations that the lunar tidal influence on the ionosphere depends on longitude. We use magnetic field measurements from the CHAMP satellite during July 2000 to September 2010 and from the two Swarm satellites during November 2013 to February 2017 to determine, for the first time, the complete seasonal- longitudinal climatology of the semidiurnal lunar tidal variation in the equatorial electrojet intensity. Significant longitudinal variability is found in the amplitude of the lunar tidal variation, while the longitudinal variability in the phase is small. The amplitude peaks in the Peruvian sector (similar to 285 degrees E) during the Northern Hemisphere winter and equinoxes, and in the Brazilian sector (similar to 325 degrees E) during the Northern Hemisphere summer. There are also local amplitude maxima at similar to 55 degrees E and similar to 120 degrees E. The longitudinal variation is partly due to the modulation of ionospheric conductivities by the inhomogeneous geomagnetic field. Another possible cause of the longitudinal variability is neutral wind forcing by nonmigrating lunar tides. A tidal spectrum analysis of the semidiurnal lunar tidal variation in the equatorial electrojet reveals the dominance of the westward propagating mode with zonal wave number 2 (SW2), with secondary contributions by westward propagating modes with zonal wave numbers 3 (SW3) and 4 (SW4). Eastward propagating waves are largely absent from the tidal spectrum. Further study will be required for the relative importance of ionospheric conductivities and nonmigrating lunar tides.}, language = {en} } @article{YamazakiStolleMatzkaetal.2018, author = {Yamazaki, Yosuke and Stolle, Claudia and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Liu, Huixin and Tao, Chihiro}, title = {Interannual variability of the daytime equatorial ionospheric electric field}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {5}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2017JA025165}, pages = {4241 -- 4256}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Understanding the variability of the ionosphere is important for the prediction of space weather and climate. Recent studies have shown that forcing from the lower atmosphere plays a significant role for the short-term (day-to-day) variability of the low-latitude ionosphere. The present study aims to assess the importance of atmospheric forcing for the variability of the daytime equatorial ionospheric electric field on the interannual (year-to-year) time scale. Magnetic field measurements from Huancayo (12.05 degrees S, 75.33 degrees W) are used to augment the equatorial vertical plasma drift velocity (V-Z) measurements from the Jicamarca Unattended Long-term Investigations of the Ionosphere and Atmosphere radar during 2001-2016. V-Z can be regarded as a measure of the zonal electric field. After removing the seasonal variation of similar to 10m/s, midday values of V-Z show an interannual variation of similar to 2m/s with an oscillation period of 2-3years. No evidence of solar cycle influence is found. The Ground-to-topside Atmosphere-Ionosphere model for Aeronomy, which takes into account realistic atmospheric variability below 30km, reproduces the pattern of the observed interannual variation without having to include variable forcing from the magnetosphere. The results indicate that lower atmospheric forcing plays a dominant role for the observed interannual variability of V-Z at 1200 local time.}, language = {en} } @article{YamazakiStolleMatzkaetal.2018, author = {Yamazaki, Yosuke and Stolle, Claudia and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Alken, Patrick}, title = {Quasi-6-Day Wave Modulation of the Equatorial Electrojet}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {5}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA025365}, pages = {4094 -- 4109}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The equatorial electrojet is an enhanced eastward current in the dayside E region ionosphere flowing along the magnetic equator. The equatorial electrojet is highly variable as it is subject to various forcing mechanisms including atmospheric waves from the lower layers of the atmosphere. There are occasionally times when the intensity of the equatorial electrojet at a fixed longitude shows an oscillatory variation with a period of approximately 6days. We present case studies of such events based on the equatorial electrojet measurements from the CHAMP and Swarm satellites. The spatial and temporal variability of the equatorial electrojet intensity during these events reveals characteristics of a westward propagating wave with zonal wavenumber 1, consistent with the effect of the quasi-6-day planetary wave. Analyses of the geopotential height data from the Aura satellite confirm the presence of the quasi-6-day planetary wave in the lower thermosphere during the events. The amplitude of the quasi-6-day variation in the equatorial electrojet intensity depends on longitude, but no systematic longitudinal dependence is found for different events. During the event of August 2010, quasi-6-day variations are also observed by ground-based magnetometers and a radar in the Peruvian sector. The effect of the quasi-6-day wave accounts for up to +/- 5.9m/s in the equatorial vertical plasma velocity at noon, which is much larger than previously predicted by a numerical model. These results suggest that the quasi-6-day planetary wave is an important source of short-term variability in the equatorial ionosphere.}, language = {en} } @article{SoaresYamazakiMatzkaetal.2019, author = {Soares, Gabriel and Yamazaki, Yosuke and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Pinheiro, Katia and Stolle, Claudia and Alken, Patrick and Yoshikawa, Akimasa and Uozumi, Teiji and Fujimoto, Akiko and Kulkarni, Atul}, title = {Longitudinal variability of the equatorial counter electrojet during the solar cycle 24}, series = {Studia geophysica et geodaetica}, volume = {63}, journal = {Studia geophysica et geodaetica}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0039-3169}, doi = {10.1007/s11200-018-0286-0}, pages = {304 -- 319}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ground and space-based geomagnetic data were used in the investigation of the longitudinal, seasonal and lunar phase dependence of the equatorial counter electrojet (CEJ) occurrence in the Peruvian, Brazilian, African, Indian and Philippine sectors during geomagnetically quiet days from the solar cycle 24 (2008 to 2018). We found that CEJ events occur more frequently during the morning (MCEJ) than in the afternoon (ACEJ). The highest MCEJ and ACEJ occurrence rates were observed for the Brazilian sector. Distinct seasonal dependence was found for each longitudinal sector under investigation. The lunar phase dependence was determined for the first time for the Philippine sector (longitude 125 degrees E), and it was shown to be less pronounced than in the Peruvian, Brazilian and African sectors. We demonstrate that differences in CEJ rates derived from ground-based and satellite data can arise from the longitudinal separation between low-latitude and equatorial stations that are used to determine the signal and its consequent time delay in their sunrise/sunset times at ionospheric heights.}, language = {en} } @article{SoaresYamazakiMatzkaetal.2018, author = {Soares, Gabriel and Yamazaki, Yosuke and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Pinheiro, Katia and Morschhauser, Achim and Stolle, Claudia and Alken, Patrick}, title = {Equatorial counter electrojet longitudinal and seasonal variablity in the American sector}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA025968}, pages = {9906 -- 9920}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The equatorial electrojet occasionally reverses during morning and afternoon hours, leading to periods of westward current in the ionospheric E region that are known as counter electrojet (CEJ) events. We present the first analysis of CEJ climatology and CEJ dependence on solar flux and lunar phase for the Brazilian sector, based on an extensive ground-based data set for the years 2008 to 2017 from the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (1.2 degrees S, 48.5 degrees W), and we compare it to the results found for Huancayo (12.0 degrees S, 75.3 degrees W) observatory in the Peruvian sector. We found a predominance of morning CEJ events for both sectors. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate in the Brazilian sector is twice as high as in the Peruvian sector. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate strongly depends on season, with maximum rates occurring during the northern-hemisphere summer for the Brazilian sector and during the northern-hemisphere winter for the Peruvian sector. Significant discrepancies between the two sectors are also found for morning CEJ rates during the northern-hemisphere summer. These longitudinal differences are in agreement with a CEJ climatology derived from contemporary Swarm satellite data and can be attributed in part to the well-known longitudinal wave-4 structure in the background equatorial electrojet strength that results from nonmigrating solar tides and stationary planetary waves. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model show that the remaining longitudinal variability in CEJ during northern summer can be explained by the effect of migrating tides in the presence of the varying geomagnetic field in the South Atlantic Anomaly.}, language = {en} } @article{SoaresYamazakiCnossenetal.2020, author = {Soares, Gabriel Brando and Yamazaki, Yosuke and Cnossen, Ingrid and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Pinheiro, Katia J. and Morschhauser, Achim and Alken, Patrick and Stolle, Claudia}, title = {Evolution of the geomagnetic daily variation at Tatuoca, Brazil, From 1957 to 2019}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {9}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2020JA028109}, pages = {20}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The magnetic equator in the Brazilian region has moved over 1,100 km northward since 1957, passing the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (TTB), in northern Brazil, around 2013. We recovered and processed TTB hourly mean values of the geomagnetic field horizontal (H) component from 1957 until 2019, allowing the investigation of long-term changes in the daily variation due to the influence of secular variation, solar activity, season, and lunar phase. The H day-to-day variability and the occurrence of the counter electrojet at TTB were also investigated. Until the 1990s, ionospheric solar quiet currents dominated the quiet-time daily variation at TTB. After 2000, the magnitude of the daily variation became appreciably greater due to the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) contribution. The H seasonal and day-to-day variability increased as the magnetic equator approached, but their amplitudes normalized to the average daily variation remained at similar levels. Meanwhile, the amplitude of the lunar variation, normalized in the same way, increased from 5\% to 12\%. Within the EEJ region, the occurrence rate of the morning counter electrojet (MCEJ) increased with proximity to the magnetic equator, while the afternoon counter electrojet (ACEJ) did not. EEJ currents derived from CHAMP and Swarm satellite data revealed that the MCEJ rate varies with magnetic latitude within the EEJ region while the ACEJ rate is largely constant. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model based on different geomagnetic main field configurations suggest that long-term changes in the geomagnetic daily variation at TTB can be attributed to the main field secular variation.}, language = {en} } @article{SiddiquiYamazakiStolleetal.2018, author = {Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan and Yamazaki, Yosuke and Stolle, Claudia and L{\"u}hr, Hermann and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Maute, Astrid and Pedatella, Nicholas}, title = {Dependence of Lunar Tide of the Equatorial Electrojet on the Wintertime Polar Vortex, Solar Flux, and QBO}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {45}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {9}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2018GL077510}, pages = {3801 -- 3810}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The lower atmospheric forcing effects on the ionosphere are particularly evident during extreme meteorological events known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). During SSWs, the polar stratosphere and ionosphere, two distant atmospheric regions, are coupled through the SSW-induced modulation of atmospheric migrating and nonmigrating tides. The changes in the migrating semidiurnal solar and lunar tides are the major source of ionospheric variabilities during SSWs. In this study, we use 55 years of ground-magnetometer observations to investigate the composite characteristics of the lunar tide of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) during SSWs. These long-term observations allow us to capture the EEJ lunar tidal response to the SSWs in a statistical sense. Further, we examine the influence of solar flux conditions and the phases of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the lunar tide and find that the QBO phases and solar flux conditions modulate the EEJ lunar tidal response during SSWs in a similar way as they modulate the wintertime Arctic polar vortex. This work provides first evidence of modulation of the EEJ lunar tide due to QBO. Plain Language Summary This study focuses on the vertical coupling between the polar stratosphere and equatorial ionosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Extreme meteorological events such as SSWs induce variabilities in the ionosphere by modulating the atmospheric migrating and nonmigrating tides, and these variabilities can be comparable to a moderate geomagnetic storm. Observations and modeling studies have found that the changes in the migrating semidiurnal solar and lunar tides are a major source of ionospheric variabilities during SSWs. The equatorial electrojet (EEJ) is a narrow ribbon of current flowing over the dip equator in the ionosphere and is particularly sensitive to tidal changes. Long-term ground-magnetometer recordings have been used in this study to estimate the variations induced in EEJ during SSWs due to the lunar semidiurnal tide in a statistical sense. The wintertime Arctic polar vortex and the occurrence of SSWs are modulated by solar flux conditions and the phases of quasi-biennial oscillation. In this work, we find the first evidence of lunar tidal modulation of EEJ due to quasi-biennial oscillation during SSWs. Our findings will be useful in providing improved predictions of ionospheric variations due to SSWs. The aeronomy community will be the most impacted by this paper.}, language = {en} } @article{MatzkaStolleYamazakietal.2021, author = {Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Stolle, Claudia and Yamazaki, Yosuke and Bronkalla, Oliver and Morschhauser, Achim}, title = {The geomagnetic Kp index and derived indices of geomagnetic activity}, series = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, volume = {19}, journal = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, number = {5}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {New York}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2020SW002641}, pages = {21}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The geomagnetic Kp index is one of the most extensively used indices of geomagnetic activity, both for scientific and operational purposes. This article reviews the properties of the Kp index and provides a reference for users of the Kp index and associated data products as derived and distributed by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. The near real-time production of the nowcast Kp index is of particular interest for space weather services and here we describe and evaluate its current setup.}, language = {en} } @article{MatzkaSiddiquiLilienkampetal.2017, author = {Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan and Lilienkamp, Henning and Stolle, Claudia and Veliz, Oscar}, title = {Quantifying solar flux and geomagnetic main field influence on the equatorial ionospheric current system at the geomagnetic observatory Huancayo}, series = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics}, volume = {163}, journal = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1364-6826}, doi = {10.1016/j.jastp.2017.04.014}, pages = {120 -- 125}, year = {2017}, abstract = {In order to analyse the sensitivity of the equatorial ionospheric current system, i.e. the solar quiet current system and the equatorial electrojet, to solar cycle variations and to the secular variation of the geomagnetic main field, we have analysed 51 years (1935-1985) of geomagnetic observatory data from Huancayo, Peru. This period is ideal to analyse the influence of the main field strength on the amplitude of the quiet daily variation, since the main field decreases significantly from 1935 to 1985, while the distance of the magnetic equator to the observatory remains stable. To this end, we digitised some 19 years of hourly mean values of the horizontal component (H), which have not been available digitally at the World Data Centres. Then, the sensitivity of the amplitude Ali of the quiet daily variation to both solar cycle variations (in terms of sunspot numbers and solar flux F10.7) and changes of the geomagnetic main field strength (due to secular variation) was determined. We confirm an increase of Delta H for the decreasing main field in this period, as expected from physics based models (Cnossen, 2016), but with a somewhat smaller rate of 4.4\% (5.8\% considering one standard error) compared with 6.9\% predicted by the physics based model.}, language = {en} }