@article{HainzlOgata2005,
  author    = {Hainzl, Sebastian and Ogata, Y.},
  title     = {Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling},
  issn      = {0148-0227},
  year      = {2005},
  abstract  = {[1] According to the well-known Coulomb failure criterion the variation of either stress or pore pressure can result in earthquake rupture. Aftershock sequences characterized by the Omori law are often assumed to be the consequence of varying stress, whereas earthquake swarms are thought to be triggered by fluid intrusions. The role of stress triggering can be analyzed by modeling solely three-dimensional (3-D) elastic stress changes in the crust, but fluid flows which initiate seismicity cannot be investigated without considering complex seismicity patterns resulting from both pore pressure variations and earthquake-connected stress field changes. We show that the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is an appropriate tool to extract the primary fluid signal from such complex seismicity patterns. We analyze a large earthquake swarm that occurred in 2000 in Vogtland/NW Bohemia, central Europe. By fitting the stochastic ETAS model, we find that stress triggering is dominant in creating the observed seismicity patterns and explains the observed fractal interevent time distribution. External forcing, identified with pore pressure changes due to fluid intrusion, is found to directly trigger only a few percent of the total activity. However, temporal deconvolution indicates that a pronounced fluid signal initiated the swarm. These results are confirmed by our analogous investigation of model simulations in which earthquakes are triggered by fluid intrusion as well as stress transfers on a fault plane embedded in a 3-D elastic half-space. The deconvolution procedure based on the ETAS model is able to reveal the underlying pore pressure variations},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchmedesHainzlReameretal.2005,
  author    = {Schmedes, J. and Hainzl, Sebastian and Reamer, S. K. and Scherbaum, Frank and Hinzen, K. G.},
  title     = {Moment release in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany : seismological perspective of the deformation process},
  issn      = {0956-540X},
  year      = {2005},
  abstract  = {An important task of seismic hazard assessment consists of estimating the rate of seismic moment release which is correlated to the rate of tectonic deformation and the seismic coupling. However, the estimations of deformation depend on the type of information utilized (e.g. geodetic, geological, seismic) and include large uncertainties. We therefore estimate the deformation rate in the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE), Germany, using an integrated approach where the uncertainties have been systematically incorporated. On the basis of a new homogeneous earthquake catalogue we initially determine the frequency-magnitude distribution by statistical methods. In particular, we focus on an adequate estimation of the upper bound of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and demonstrate the importance of additional palaeoseis- mological information. The integration of seismological and geological information yields a probability distribution of the upper bound magnitude. Using this distribution together with the distribution of Gutenberg-Richter a and b values, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to derive the seismic moment release as a function of the observation time. The seismic moment release estimated from synthetic earthquake catalogues with short catalogue length is found to systematically underestimate the long-term moment rate which can be analytically determined. The moment release recorded in the LRE over the last 250 yr is found to be in good agreement with the probability distribution resulting from the Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the long-term distribution is within its uncertainties consistent with the moment rate derived by geological measurements, indicating an almost complete seismic coupling in this region. By means of Kostrov's formula, we additionally calculate the full deformation rate tensor using the distribution of known focal mechanisms in LRE. Finally, we use the same approach to calculate the seismic moment and the deformation rate for two subsets of the catalogue corresponding to the east- and west-dipping faults, respectively},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZollerHainzlHolschneideretal.2005,
  author    = {Zoller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Holschneider, Matthias and Ben-Zion, Yehuda},
  title     = {Aftershocks resulting from creeping sections in a heterogeneous fault},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  year      = {2005},
  abstract  = {We show that realistic aftershock sequences with space-time characteristics compatible with observations are generated by a model consisting of brittle fault segments separated by creeping zones. The dynamics of the brittle regions is governed by static/kinetic friction, 3D elastic stress transfer and small creep deformation. The creeping parts are characterized by high ongoing creep velocities. These regions store stress during earthquake failures and then release it in the interseismic periods. The resulting postseismic deformation leads to aftershock sequences following the modified Omori law. The ratio of creep coefficients in the brittle and creeping sections determines the duration of the postseismic transients and the exponent p of the modified Omori law},
  language  = {en}
}