@misc{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015, author = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, J. and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, V. and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, L. and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim}, title = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968}, pages = {14}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.}, language = {en} } @misc{KruseGerdesKathetal.2018, author = {Kruse, Stefan and Gerdes, Alexander and Kath, Nadja J. and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Implementing spatially explicit wind-driven seed and pollen dispersal in the individual-based larch simulation model}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {929}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44597}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445978}, pages = {4451 -- 4467}, year = {2018}, abstract = {It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.}, language = {en} } @misc{LachmairRuizFernandezBuryetal.2016, author = {Lachmair, Martin and Ruiz Fernandez, Susana and Bury, Nils-Alexander and Gerjets, Peter and Fischer, Martin H. and Bock, Otmar L.}, title = {How body orientation affects concepts of space, time and valence}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {505}, issn = {1866-8364}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41094}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410942}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The aim of the present study was to test the functional relevance of the spatial concepts UP or DOWN for words that use these concepts either literally (space) or metaphorically (time, valence). A functional relevance would imply a symmetrical relationship between the spatial concepts and words related to these concepts, showing that processing words activate the related spatial concepts on one hand, but also that an activation of the concepts will ease the retrieval of a related word on the other. For the latter, the rotation angle of participant's body position was manipulated either to an upright or a head-down tilted body position to activate the related spatial concept. Afterwards participants produced in a within-subject design previously memorized words of the concepts space, time and valence according to the pace of a metronome. All words were related either to the spatial concept UP or DOWN. The results including Bayesian analyses show (1) a significant interaction between body position and words using the concepts UP and DOWN literally, (2) a marginal significant interaction between body position and temporal words and (3) no effect between body position and valence words. However, post-hoc analyses suggest no difference between experiments. Thus, the authors concluded that integrating sensorimotor experiences is indeed of functional relevance for all three concepts of space, time and valence. However, the strength of this functional relevance depends on how close words are linked to mental concepts representing vertical space.}, language = {en} }