@phdthesis{Schintgen2016,
  author    = {Schintgen, Tom Vincent},
  title     = {The geothermal potential of Luxembourg},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-87110},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXII, 313},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The aim of this work is the evaluation of the geothermal potential of Luxembourg. The approach consists in a joint interpretation of different types of information necessary for a first rather qualitative assessment of deep geothermal reservoirs in Luxembourg and the adjoining regions in the surrounding countries of Belgium, France and Germany. For the identification of geothermal reservoirs by exploration, geological, thermal, hydrogeological and structural data are necessary. Until recently, however, reliable information about the thermal field and the regional geology, and thus about potential geothermal reservoirs, was lacking. Before a proper evaluation of the geothermal potential can be performed, a comprehensive survey of the geology and an assessment of the thermal field are required. As a first step, the geology and basin structure of the Mesozoic Trier-Luxembourg Basin (TLB) is reviewed and updated using recently published information on the geology and structures as well as borehole data available in Luxembourg and the adjoining regions. A Bouguer map is used to get insight in the depth, morphology and structures in the Variscan basement buried beneath the Trier-Luxembourg Basin. The geological section of the old Cessange borehole is reinterpreted and provides, in combination with the available borehole data, consistent information for the production of isopach maps. The latter visualize the synsedimentary evolution of the Trier-Luxembourg Basin. Complementary, basin-wide cross sections illustrate the evolution and structure of the Trier-Luxembourg Basin. The knowledge gained does not support the old concept of the Weilerbach Mulde. The basin-wide cross sections, as well as the structural and sedimentological observations in the Trier-Luxembourg Basin suggest that the latter probably formed above a zone of weakness related to a buried Rotliegend graben. The inferred graben structure designated by SE-Luxembourg Graben (SELG) is located in direct southwestern continuation of the Wittlicher Rotliegend-Senke. The lack of deep boreholes and subsurface temperature prognosis at depth is circumnavigated by using thermal modelling for inferring the geothermal resource at depth. For this approach, profound structural, geological and petrophysical input data are required. Conceptual geological cross sections encompassing the entire crust are constructed and further simplified and extended to lithospheric scale for their utilization as thermal models. The 2-D steady state and conductive models are parameterized by means of measured petrophysical properties including thermal conductivity, radiogenic heat production and density. A surface heat flow of 75 ∓ 7 (2δ) mW m-2 for verification of the thermal models could be determined in the area. The models are further constrained by the geophysically-estimated depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) defined by the 1300 °C isotherm. A LAB depth of 100 km, as seismically derived for the Ardennes, provides the best fit with the measured surface heat flow. The resulting mantle heat flow amounts to ∼40 mW m-2. Modelled temperatures are in the range of 120-125 °C at 5 km depth and of 600-650 °C at the crust/mantle discontinuity (Moho). Possible thermal consequences of the 10-20 Ma old Eifel plume, which apparently caused upwelling of the asthenospheric mantle to 50-60 km depth, were modelled in a steady-state thermal scenario resulting in a surface heat flow of at least 91 mW m-2 (for the plume top at 60 km) in the Eifel region. Available surface heat-flow values are significantly lower (65-80 mW m-2) and indicate that the plume-related heating has not yet entirely reached the surface. Once conceptual geological models are established and the thermal regime is assessed, the geothermal potential of Luxembourg and the surrounding areas is evaluated by additional consideration of the hydrogeology, the stress field and tectonically active regions. On the one hand, low-enthalpy hydrothermal reservoirs in Mesozoic reservoirs in the Trier-Luxembourg Embayment (TLE) are considered. On the other hand, petrothermal reservoirs in the Lower Devonian basement of the Ardennes and Eifel regions are considered for exploitation by Enhanced/Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS). Among the Mesozoic aquifers, the Buntsandstein aquifer characterized by temperatures of up to 50 °C is a suitable hydrothermal reservoir that may be exploited by means of heat pumps or provide direct heat for various applications. The most promising area is the zone of the SE-Luxembourg Graben. The aquifer is warmest underneath the upper Alzette River valley and the limestone plateau in Lorraine, where the Buntsandstein aquifer lies below a thick Mesozoic cover. At the base of an inferred Rotliegend graben in the same area, temperatures of up to 75 °C are expected. However, geological and hydraulic conditions are uncertain. In the Lower Devonian basement, thick sandstone-/quartzite-rich formations with temperatures >90 °C are expected at depths >3.5 km and likely offer the possibility of direct heat use. The setting of the S{\"u}deifel (South Eifel) region, including the M{\"u}llerthal region near Echternach, as a tectonically active zone may offer the possibility of deep hydrothermal reservoirs in the fractured Lower Devonian basement. Based on the recent findings about the structure of the Trier-Luxembourg Basin, the new concept presents the M{\"u}llerthal-S{\"u}deifel Depression (MSD) as a Cenozoic structure that remains tectonically active and subsiding, and therefore is relevant for geothermal exploration. Beyond direct use of geothermal heat, the expected modest temperatures at 5 km depth (about 120 °C) and increased permeability by EGS in the quartzite-rich Lochkovian could prospectively enable combined geothermal heat production and power generation in Luxembourg and the western realm of the Eifel region.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Bora2015,
  author    = {Bora, Sanjay Singh},
  title     = {Regionally adaptable ground-motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for seismic hazard analysis},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-88806},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiv, 138},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Adjustment of empirically derived ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), from a data- rich region/site where they have been derived to a data-poor region/site, is one of the major challenges associated with the current practice of seismic hazard analysis. Due to the fre- quent use in engineering design practices the GMPEs are often derived for response spectral ordinates (e.g., spectral acceleration) of a single degree of freedom (SDOF) oscillator. The functional forms of such GMPEs are based upon the concepts borrowed from the Fourier spectral representation of ground motion. This assumption regarding the validity of Fourier spectral concepts in the response spectral domain can lead to consequences which cannot be explained physically. In this thesis, firstly results from an investigation that explores the relationship between Fourier and response spectra, and implications of this relationship on the adjustment issues of GMPEs, are presented. The relationship between the Fourier and response spectra is explored by using random vibration theory (RVT), a framework that has been extensively used in earthquake engineering, for instance within the stochastic simulation framework and in the site response analysis. For a 5\% damped SDOF oscillator the RVT perspective of response spectra reveals that no one-to-one correspondence exists between Fourier and response spectral ordinates except in a limited range (i.e., below the peak of the response spectra) of oscillator frequencies. The high oscillator frequency response spectral ordinates are dominated by the contributions from the Fourier spectral ordinates that correspond to the frequencies well below a selected oscillator frequency. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) is found to be related with the integral over the entire Fourier spectrum of ground motion which is in contrast to the popularly held perception that PGA is a high-frequency phenomenon of ground motion. This thesis presents a new perspective for developing a response spectral GMPE that takes the relationship between Fourier and response spectra into account. Essentially, this frame- work involves a two-step method for deriving a response spectral GMPE: in the first step two empirical models for the FAS and for a predetermined estimate of duration of ground motion are derived, in the next step, predictions from the two models are combined within the same RVT framework to obtain the response spectral ordinates. In addition to that, a stochastic model based scheme for extrapolating the individual acceleration spectra beyond the useable frequency limits is also presented. To that end, recorded acceleration traces were inverted to obtain the stochastic model parameters that allow making consistent extrapola- tion in individual (acceleration) Fourier spectra. Moreover an empirical model, for a dura- tion measure that is consistent within the RVT framework, is derived. As a next step, an oscillator-frequency-dependent empirical duration model is derived that allows obtaining the most reliable estimates of response spectral ordinates. The framework of deriving the response spectral GMPE presented herein becomes a self-adjusting model with the inclusion of stress parameter (∆σ) and kappa (κ0) as the predictor variables in the two empirical models. The entire analysis of developing the response spectral GMPE is performed on recently compiled RESORCE-2012 database that contains recordings made from Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The presented GMPE for response spectral ordinates should be considered valid in the magnitude range of 4 ≤ MW ≤ 7.6 at distances ≤ 200 km.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Sauma2015,
  author    = {Sauma, Natalia Zamora},
  title     = {Tsunami hazard analysis in Central America with emphasis on uncertainties},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {184},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kormann2015,
  author    = {Kormann, Christoph Martin},
  title     = {Regional climate change effects on hydroclimatic conditions in the Alpine region},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {129},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kulikova2015,
  author    = {Kulikova, Galina},
  title     = {Source parameters of the major historical earthquakes in the Tien-Shan region from the late 19th to the early 20th century},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-88370},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiv, 164},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The Tien-Shan and the neighboring Pamir region are two of the largest mountain belts in the world. Their deformation is dominated by intermontane basins bounded by active thrust and reverse faulting. The Tien-Shan mountain belt is characterized by a very high rate of seismicity along its margins as well as within the Tien-Shan interior. The study area of the here presented thesis, the western part of the Tien-Shan region, is currently seismically active with small and moderate sized earthquakes. However, at the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century, this region was struck by a remarkable series of large magnitude (M>7) earthquakes, two of them reached magnitude 8. Those large earthquakes occurred prior to the installation of the global digital seismic network and therefore were recorded only by analog seismic instruments. The processing of the analog data brings several difficulties, for example, not always the true parameters of the recording system are known. Another complicated task is the digitization of those records - a very time-consuming and delicate part. Therefore a special set of techniques is developed and modern methods are adapted for the digitized instrumental data analysis. The main goal of the presented thesis is to evaluate the impact of large magnitude M≥7.0 earthquakes, which occurred at the turn of 19th to 20th century in the Tien-Shan region, on the overall regional tectonics. A further objective is to investigate the accuracy of previously estimated source parameters for those earthquakes, which were mainly based on macroseismic observations, and re-estimate them based on the instrumental data. An additional aim of this study is to develop the tools and methods for faster and more productive usage of analog seismic data in modern seismology. In this thesis, the ten strongest and most interesting historical earthquakes in Tien-Shan region are analyzed. The methods and tool for digitizing and processing the analog seismic data are presented. The source parameters of the two major M≥8.0 earthquakes in the Northern Tien-Shan are re-estimated in individual case studies. Those studies are published as peer-reviewed scientific articles in reputed journals. Additionally, the Sarez-Pamir earthquake and its connection with one of the largest landslides in the world, Usoy landslide, is investigated by seismic modeling. These results are also published as a research paper. With the developed techniques, the source parameters of seven more major earthquakes in the region are determined and their impact on the regional tectonics was investigated. The large magnitudes of those earthquakes are confirmed by instrumental data. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes were determined providing evidence for responsible faults or fault systems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kaempf2015,
  author    = {K{\"a}mpf, Lucas},
  title     = {Extreme events in geoarchives},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85961},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xii, 94},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {A main limitation in the field of flood hydrology is the short time period covered by instrumental flood time series, rarely exceeding more than 50 to 100 years. However, climate variability acts on short to millennial time scales and identifying causal linkages to extreme hydrological events requires longer datasets. To extend instrumental flood time series back in time, natural geoarchives are increasingly explored as flood recorders. Therefore, annually laminated (varved) lake sediments seem to be the most suitable archives since (i) lake basins act as natural sediment traps in the landscape continuously recording land surface processes including floods and (ii) individual flood events are preserved as detrital layers intercalated in the varved sediment sequence and can be dated with seasonal precision by varve counting. The main goal of this thesis is to improve the understanding about hydrological and sedimentological processes leading to the formation of detrital flood layers and therewith to contribute to an improved interpretation of lake sediments as natural flood archives. This goal was achieved in two ways: first, by comparing detrital layers in sediments of two dissimilar peri-Alpine lakes, Lago Maggiore in Northern Italy and Mondsee in Upper Austria, with local instrumental flood data and, second, by tracking detrital layer formation during floods by a combined hydro-sedimentary monitoring network at Lake Mondsee spanning from the rain fall to the deposition of detrital sediment at the lake floor. Successions of sub-millimetre to 17 mm thick detrital layers were detected in sub-recent lake sediments of the Pallanza Basin in the western part of Lago Maggiore (23 detrital layers) and Lake Mondsee (23 detrital layers) by combining microfacies and high-resolution micro X-ray fluorescence scanning techniques (µ-XRF). The detrital layer records were dated by detailed intra-basin correlation to a previously dated core sequence in Lago Maggiore and varve counting in Mondsee. The intra-basin correlation of detrital layers between five sediment cores in Lago Maggiore and 13 sediment cores in Mondsee allowed distinguishing river runoff events from local erosion. Moreover, characteristic spatial distribution patterns of detrital flood layers revealed different depositional processes in the two dissimilar lakes, underflows in Lago Maggiore as well as under- and interflows in Mondsee. Comparisons with runoff data of the main tributary streams, the Toce River at Lago Maggiore and the Griesler Ache at Mondsee, revealed empirical runoff thresholds above which the deposition of a detrital layer becomes likely. Whereas this threshold is the same for the whole Pallanza Basin in Lago Maggiore (600 m3s-1 daily runoff), it varies within Lake Mondsee. At proximal locations close to the river inflow detrital layer deposition requires floods exceeding a daily runoff of 40 m3s-1, whereas at a location 2 km more distal an hourly runoff of 80 m3s-1 and at least 2 days with runoff above 40 m3s-1 are necessary. A relation between the thickness of individual deposits and runoff amplitude of the triggering events is apparent for both lakes but is obviously further influenced by variable influx and lake internal distribution of detrital sediment. To investigate processes of flood layer formation in lake sediments, hydro-sedimentary dynamics in Lake Mondsee and its main tributary stream, Griesler Ache, were monitored from January 2011 to December 2013. Precipitation, discharge and turbidity were recorded continuously at the rivers outlet to the lake and compared to sediment fluxes trapped close to the lake bottom on a basis of three to twelve days and on a monthly basis in three different water depths at two locations in the lake basin, in a distance of 0.9 (proximal) and 2.8 km (distal) to the Griesler Ache inflow. Within the three-year observation period, 26 river floods of different amplitude (10-110 m3s-1) were recorded resulting in variable sediment fluxes to the lake (4-760 g m-2d-1). Vertical and lateral variations in flood-related sedimentation during the largest floods indicate that interflows are the main processes of lake internal sediment transport in Lake Mondsee. The comparison of hydrological and sedimentological data revealed (i) a rapid sedimentation within three days after the peak runoff in the proximal and within six to ten days in the distal lake basin, (ii) empirical runoff thresholds for triggering sediment flux at the lake floor increasing from the proximal (20 m3s-1) to the distal lake basin (30 m3s-1) and (iii) factors controlling the amount of detrital sediment deposition at a certain location in the lake basin. The total influx of detrital sediment is mainly driven by runoff amplitude, catchment sediment availability and episodic sediment input by local sediment sources. A further role plays the lake internal sediment distribution which is not the same for each event but is favoured by flood duration and the existence of a thermocline and, therewith, the season in which a flood occurred. In summary, the studies reveal a high sensitivity of lake sediments to flood events of different intensity. Certain runoff amplitudes are required to supply enough detrital material to form a visible detrital layer at the lake floor. Reasonable are positive feedback mechanisms between rainfall, runoff, erosion, fluvial sediment transport capacity and lake internal sediment distribution. Therefore, runoff thresholds for detrital layer formation are site-specific due to different lake-catchment characteristics. However, the studies also reveal that flood amplitude is not the only control for the amount of deposited sediment at a certain location in the lake basin even for the strongest flood events. The sediment deposition is rather influenced by a complex interaction of catchment and in-lake processes. This means that the coring location within a lake basin strongly determines the significance of a flood layer record. Moreover, the results show that while lake sediments provide ideal archives for reconstructing flood frequencies, the reconstruction of flood amplitudes is a more complex issue and requires detailed knowledge about relevant catchment and in-lake sediment transport and depositional processes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Ramisch2015,
  author    = {Ramisch, Arne},
  title     = {Lake system development on the northern Tibetan Plateau during the last ~ 12 ka},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {122},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Zubaidah2010,
  author    = {Zubaidah, Teti},
  title     = {Spatio-temporal characteristics of the geomagnetic field over the Lombok Island, the Lesser Sunda Islands region},
  series = {Scientific Technical Report},
  volume    = {STR10},
  journal   = {Scientific Technical Report},
  number    = {07},
  publisher = {Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  doi       = {10.2312/GFZ.b103-10079},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xv, 117},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {The Lombok Island is part of the Lesser Sunda Islands (LSI) region - Indonesia, situated along the Sunda-Banda Arcs transition. It lies between zones characterized by the highest intensity geomagnetic anomalies of this region, remarkable as one of the eight most important features provided on the 1st edition of World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map. The seismicity of this region during the last years is high, while the geological and tectonic structures of this region are still not known in detail. Some local magnetic surveys have been conducted previously during 2004-2005. However, due to the lower accuracy of the used equipment and a limited number of stations, the qualities of the previous measurements are questionable for more interpretations. Thus a more detailed study to better characterize the geomagnetic anomaly -spatially and temporally- over this region and to deeply explore the related regional geology, tectonic and seismicity is needed. The intriguing geomagnetic anomalies over this island region vis-{\`a}-vis the socio-cultural situations lead to a study with a special aim to contribute to the assessment of the potential of natural hazards (earthquakes) as well as a new natural resource of energy (geothermal potential). This study is intended to discuss several crucial questions, including: i. The real values and the general pattern of magnetic anomalies over the island, as well as their relation to the regional one. ii. Any temporal changes of regional anomalies over the recent time. iii. The relationships between the anomalies and the geology and tectonic of this region, especially new insights that can be gained from the geomagnetic observations. iv. The relationships between the anomalies and the high seismicity of this region, especially some possible links between their variations to the earthquake occurrence. First, all available geomagnetic data of this region and results of the previous measurements are evaluated. The new geomagnetic surveys carried out in 2006 and 2007/2008 are then presented in detail, followed by the general description of data processing and data quality evaluation. The new results show the general pattern of contiguous negative-positive anomalies, revealing an active arc related subduction region. They agree with earlier results obtained by satellite, aeromagnetic, and marine platforms; and provide a much more detailed picture of the strong anomalies on this island. The temporal characteristics of regional anomalies show a decreasing strength of the dipolar structure, where decreasing of the field intensities is faster than the regional secular variations as defined by the global model (the 10th generation of IGRF). However, some exceptions (increasing of anomalies) have to be noted and further analyzed for several locations. Thereafter, simultaneous magnetic anomalies and gravity models are generated and interpreted in detail. Three profiles are investigated, providing new insights into the tectonics and geological evolution of the Lombok Island. Geological structure of this island can be divided as two main parts with different consecutive ages: an old part (from late Oligocene to late Miocene) in the South and a younger one (from Pliocene to Holocene) in the North. A new subduction in the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) is considered mature and active, showing a tendency of progressive subduction during 2005-2008. Geothermal potential in the northern part of this island can be mapped in more detail using these geomagnetic regional survey data. The earlier estimates of reservoir depth can be confirmed further to a depth of about 800 m. Evaluation of temporal changes of the anomalies gives some possible explanations related to the evolution of the back arc region, large stress accumulations over the LSI region, a specific electrical characteristic of the crust of the Lombok Island region, and a structural discontinuity over this island. Based on the results, several possible advanced studies involving geomagnetic data and anomaly investigations over the Lombok Island region can be suggested for the future: i. Monitoring the subduction activity of the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) and the accumulated stress over the LSI, that could contribute to middle term hazard assessment with a special attention to the earthquake occurrence in this region. Continuous geomagnetic field measurements from a geomagnetic observatory which can be established in the northern part of the Lombok Island and systematic measurements at several repeat stations can be useful in this regards. ii. Investigating the specific electrical characteristic (high conductivity) of the crust, that is probably related to some aquifer layers or metal mineralization. It needs other complementary geophysical methods, such as magnetotelluric (MT) or preferably DC resistivity measurements. iii. Determining the existence of an active structural fault over the Lombok Island, that could be related to long term hazard assessment over the LSI region. This needs an extension of geomagnetic investigations over the neighbouring islands (the Bali Island in the West and the Sumbawa Island in the East; probably also the Sumba and the Flores islands). This seems possible because the regional magnetic lineations might be used to delineate some structural discontinuities, based on the modelling of contrasts in crustal magnetizations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Zakharova2015,
  author    = {Zakharova, Olga},
  title     = {Analysis and modeling of transient earthquake patterns and their dependence on local stress regimes},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-86455},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XVI, 94},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Investigations in the field of earthquake triggering and associated interactions, which includes aftershock triggering as well as induced seismicity, is important for seismic hazard assessment due to earthquakes destructive power. One of the approaches to study earthquake triggering and their interactions is the use of statistical earthquake models, which are based on knowledge of the basic seismicity properties, in particular, the magnitude distribution and spatiotemporal properties of the triggered events. In my PhD thesis I focus on some specific aspects of aftershock properties, namely, the relative seismic moment release of the aftershocks with respect to the mainshocks; the spatial correlation between aftershock occurrence and fault deformation; and on the influence of aseismic transients on the aftershock parameter estimation. For the analysis of aftershock sequences I choose a statistical approach, in particular, the well known Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which accounts for the input of background and triggered seismicity. For my specific purposes, I develop two ETAS model modifications in collaboration with Sebastian Hainzl. By means of this approach, I estimate the statistical aftershock parameters and performed simulations of aftershock sequences as well. In the case of seismic moment release of aftershocks, I focus on the ratio of cumulative seismic moment release with respect to the mainshocks. Specifically, I investigate the ratio with respect to the focal mechanism of the mainshock and estimate an effective magnitude, which represents the cumulative aftershock energy (similar to Bath's law, which defines the average difference between mainshock and the largest aftershock magnitudes). Furthermore, I compare the observed seismic moment ratios with the results of the ETAS simulations. In particular, I test a restricted ETAS (RETAS) model which is based on results of a clock advanced model and static stress triggering. To analyze spatial variations of triggering parameters I focus in my second approach on the aftershock occurrence triggered by large mainshocks and the study of the aftershock parameter distribution and their spatial correlation with the coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic locking. To invert the aftershock parameters I improve the modified ETAS (m-ETAS) model, which is able to take the extension of the mainshock rupture into account. I compare the results obtained by the classical approach with the output of the m-ETAS model. My third approach is concerned with the temporal clustering of seismicity, which might not only be related to earthquake-earthquake interactions, but also to a time-dependent background rate, potentially biasing the parameter estimations. Thus, my coauthors and I also applied a modification of the ETAS model, which is able to take into account time-dependent background activity. It can be applicable for two different cases: when an aftershock catalog has a temporal incompleteness or when the background seismicity rate changes with time, due to presence of aseismic forces. An essential part of any research is the testing of the developed models using observational data sets, which are appropriate for the particular study case. Therefore, in the case of seismic moment release I use the global seismicity catalog. For the spatial distribution of triggering parameters I exploit two aftershock sequences of the Mw8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) and Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku (Japan) mainshocks. In addition, I use published geodetic slip models of different authors. To test our ability to detect aseismic transients my coauthors and I use the data sets from Western Bohemia (Central Europe) and California. Our results indicate that: (1) the seismic moment of aftershocks with respect to mainshocks depends on the static stress changes and is maximal for the normal, intermediate for thrust and minimal for strike-slip stress regimes, where the RETAS model shows a good correspondence with the results; (2) The spatial distribution of aftershock parameters, obtained by the m-ETAS model, shows anomalous values in areas of reactivated crustal fault systems. In addition, the aftershock density is found to be correlated with coseismic slip gradient, afterslip, interseismic coupling and b-values. Aftershock seismic moment is positively correlated with the areas of maximum coseismic slip and interseismically locked areas. These correlations might be related to the stress level or to material properties variations in space; (3) Ignoring aseismic transient forcing or temporal catalog incompleteness can lead to the significant under- or overestimation of the underlying trigger parameters. In the case when a catalog is complete, this method helps to identify aseismic sources.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kieling2015,
  author    = {Kieling, Katrin},
  title     = {Quantification of ground motions by broadband simulations},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85989},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XIV, 118},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {In many procedures of seismic risk mitigation, ground motion simulations are needed to test systems or improve their effectiveness. For example they may be used to estimate the level of ground shaking caused by future earthquakes. Good physical models for ground motion simulation are also thought to be important for hazard assessment, as they could close gaps in the existing datasets. Since the observed ground motion in nature shows a certain variability, part of which cannot be explained by macroscopic parameters such as magnitude or position of an earthquake, it would be desirable that a good physical model is not only able to produce one single seismogram, but also to reveal this natural variability. In this thesis, I develop a method to model realistic ground motions in a way that is computationally simple to handle, permitting multiple scenario simulations. I focus on two aspects of ground motion modelling. First, I use deterministic wave propagation for the whole frequency range - from static deformation to approximately 10 Hz - but account for source variability by implementing self-similar slip distributions and rough fault interfaces. Second, I scale the source spectrum so that the modelled waveforms represent the correct radiated seismic energy. With this scaling I verify whether the energy magnitude is suitable as an explanatory variable, which characterises the amount of energy radiated at high frequencies - the advantage of the energy magnitude being that it can be deduced from observations, even in real-time. Applications of the developed method for the 2008 Wenchuan (China) earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake and the 1994 Northridge (California, USA) earthquake show that the fine source discretisations combined with the small scale source variability ensure that high frequencies are satisfactorily introduced, justifying the deterministic wave propagation approach even at high frequencies. I demonstrate that the energy magnitude can be used to calibrate the high-frequency content in ground motion simulations. Because deterministic wave propagation is applied to the whole frequency range, the simulation method permits the quantification of the variability in ground motion due to parametric uncertainties in the source description. A large number of scenario simulations for an M=6 earthquake show that the roughness of the source as well as the distribution of fault dislocations have a minor effect on the simulated variability by diminishing directivity effects, while hypocenter location and rupture velocity more strongly influence the variability. The uncertainty in energy magnitude, however, leads to the largest differences of ground motion amplitude between different events, resulting in a variability which is larger than the one observed. For the presented approach, this dissertation shows (i) the verification of the computational correctness of the code, (ii) the ability to reproduce observed ground motions and (iii) the validation of the simulated ground motion variability. Those three steps are essential to evaluate the suitability of the method for means of seismic risk mitigation.},
  language  = {en}
}