@techreport{Schoeler2011, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Sch{\"o}ler, Klaus}, title = {Stadtstruktur und Umwelt}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52608}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Inhalt 1. Einf{\"u}hrung 2. Suburbanisierung und Natur 3. Arbeiten und Wohnen 4. Verkehr und Klima 5. Klima und Politik 6. Fazit}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Boehme2011, author = {B{\"o}hme, Dimo}, title = {EU-Russia energy relations: What chance for solutions? : A focus on the natural gas sector}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, isbn = {978-3-86956-120-2}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-50210}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xix, 322}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Public debate about energy relations between the EU and Russia is distorted. These distortions present considerable obstacles to the development of true partnership. At the core of the conflict is a struggle for resource rents between energy producing, energy consuming and transit countries. Supposed secondary aspects, however, are also of great importance. They comprise of geopolitics, market access, economic development and state sovereignty. The European Union, having engaged in energy market liberalisation, faces a widening gap between declining domestic resources and continuously growing energy demand. Diverse interests inside the EU prevent the definition of a coherent and respected energy policy. Russia, for its part, is no longer willing to subsidise its neighbouring economies by cheap energy exports. The Russian government engages in assertive policies pursuing Russian interests. In so far, it opts for a different globalisation approach, refusing the role of mere energy exporter. In view of the intensifying struggle for global resources, Russia, with its large energy potential, appears to be a very favourable option for European energy supplies, if not the best one. However, several outcomes of the strategic game between the two partners can be imagined. Engaging in non-cooperative strategies will in the end leave all stakeholders worse-off. The European Union should therefore concentrate on securing its partnership with Russia instead of damaging it. Stable cooperation would need the acceptance that the partner may pursue his own goals, which might be different from one's own interests. The question is, how can a sustainable compromise be found? This thesis finds that a mix of continued dialogue, a tit for tat approach bolstered by an international institutional framework and increased integration efforts appears as a preferable solution.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Reusser2011, author = {Reusser, Dominik Edwin}, title = {Combining smart model diagnostics and effective data collection for snow catchments}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52574}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Complete protection against flood risks by structural measures is impossible. Therefore flood prediction is important for flood risk management. Good explanatory power of flood models requires a meaningful representation of bio-physical processes. Therefore great interest exists to improve the process representation. Progress in hydrological process understanding is achieved through a learning cycle including critical assessment of an existing model for a given catchment as a first step. The assessment will highlight deficiencies of the model, from which useful additional data requirements are derived, giving a guideline for new measurements. These new measurements may in turn lead to improved process concepts. The improved process concepts are finally summarized in an updated hydrological model. In this thesis I demonstrate such a learning cycle, focusing on the advancement of model evaluation methods and more cost effective measurements. For a successful model evaluation, I propose that three questions should be answered: 1) when is a model reproducing observations in a satisfactory way? 2) If model results deviate, of what nature is the difference? And 3) what are most likely the relevant model components affecting these differences? To answer the first two questions, I developed a new method to assess the temporal dynamics of model performance (or TIGER - TIme series of Grouped Errors). This method is powerful in highlighting recurrent patterns of insufficient model behaviour for long simulation periods. I answered the third question with the analysis of the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity (TEDPAS). For calculating TEDPAS, an efficient method for sensitivity analysis is necessary. I used such an efficient method called Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, which has a smart sampling scheme. Combining the two methods TIGER and TEDPAS provided a powerful tool for model assessment. With WaSiM-ETH applied to the Weisseritz catchment as a case study, I found insufficient process descriptions for the snow dynamics and for the recession during dry periods in late summer and fall. Focusing on snow dynamics, reasons for poor model performance can either be a poor representation of snow processes in the model, or poor data on snow cover, or both. To obtain an improved data set on snow cover, time series of snow height and temperatures were collected with a cost efficient method based on temperature measurements on multiple levels at each location. An algorithm was developed to simultaneously estimate snow height and cold content from these measurements. Both, snow height and cold content are relevant quantities for spring flood forecasting. Spatial variability was observed at the local and the catchment scale with an adjusted sampling design. At the local scale, samples were collected on two perpendicular transects of 60 m length and analysed with geostatistical methods. The range determined from fitted theoretical variograms was within the range of the sampling design for 80\% of the plots. No patterns were found, that would explain the random variability and spatial correlation at the local scale. At the watershed scale, locations of the extensive field campaign were selected according to a stratified sample design to capture the combined effects of elevation, aspect and land use. The snow height is mainly affected by the plot elevation. The expected influence of aspect and land use was not observed. To better understand the deficiencies of the snow module in WaSiM-ETH, the same approach, a simple degree day model was checked for its capability to reproduce the data. The degree day model was capable to explain the temporal variability for plots with a continuous snow pack over the entire snow season, if parameters were estimated for single plots. However, processes described in the simple model are not sufficient to represent multiple accumulation-melt-cycles, as observed for the lower catchment. Thus, the combined spatio-temporal variability at the watershed scale is not captured by the model. Further tests on improved concepts for the representation of snow dynamics at the Weißeritz are required. From the data I suggest to include at least rain on snow and redistribution by wind as additional processes to better describe spatio-temporal variability. Alternatively an energy balance snow model could be tested. Overall, the proposed learning cycle is a useful framework for targeted model improvement. The advanced model diagnostics is valuable to identify model deficiencies and to guide field measurements. The additional data collected throughout this work helps to get a deepened understanding of the processes in the Weisseritz catchment.}, language = {en} } @book{KossackSchramm2011, author = {Kossack, Peter and Schramm, Christin}, title = {Fallbasierte Lernberatung : Hinweise zur Beratung des Lernens in der Lehre}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52552}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2011}, abstract = {In diesem Beitrag wird "fallbasierte Lernberatung" als ein zentrales Moment der Weiterentwicklung der Studierf{\"a}higkeit der Studierenden vor- und dargestellt. Fallbasierte Lernberatung wird darin als reflexive Praktik verstanden, die in Lehrveranstaltungen oder begleitend zu Lehrveranstaltungen angeboten werden kann. Mit der Bereitstellung eines solchen Lernberatungsangebots wird zweierlei erreicht. Studierende erhalten die professionell begleitete Gelegenheit, ihre Lernf{\"a}higkeiten weiter zu entwickeln und Lehrende Aufschluss {\"u}ber die konkreten Lernprobleme der Studierenden. Dieser kann wiederum auf das Lehrangebot r{\"u}ckwirken und so die Qualit{\"a}t der Lehre verbessern helfen.}, language = {de} } @misc{OPUS4-5057, title = {Polen regiert Europa}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52514}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Am 1. Juli {\"u}bernimmt Polen die EU-Ratspr{\"a}sidentschaft. Es ist eine Chance, sich als europapolitischer Akteur zu profilieren. Im Thema werden Priorit{\"a}ten und Herausforderungen der polnischen Ratspr{\"a}sidentschaft - das k{\"u}nftige EU-Budget, die {\"O}stliche Partnerschaft und die Beziehungen zu Russland - klar benannt und analysiert. Japan nach der Atomkatastrophe, die panarabische Revolution und die Lage in Israel sind weitere Schwerpunkte dieser Ausgabe.}, language = {de} } @misc{Kiraly2011, author = {Kiraly, Attila}, title = {Suez 2.0?}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52537}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Kaum hatte die deutsche Bundesregierung den Beschluss gefasst, den Beschluss im UN-Sicherheitsrat {\"u}ber eine Flugverbotszone {\"u}ber Libyen nicht zu fassen, ging eine Welle des Geschimpfes durch die politische Kaste dieses Landes. Diejenigen, die sich wahlweise so sch{\"o}n eingeschaukelt haben in das Bett der transatlantischen Subordination oder sich bereitwillig hinter Großspr{\"u}che franz{\"o}sischer Ambition ducken, wenn sie gerade mal nicht den Vorgaben aus den USA folgen wollen, waren aufgeschreckt.}, language = {de} } @misc{Sakson2011, author = {Sakson, Andrzej}, title = {Neues deutsches Gedenken?}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52523}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Bedarf es eines neuen Gedenktages der Vertriebenen in Deutschland? Die deutsche Regierung meint Ja. Auf ihre Initiative hin wurde die Entschließung "60 Jahre Charta der deutschen Heimatvertriebenen - Auss{\"o}hnung vollenden" im Februar 2011 angenommen. Dieser Gedenktag soll der 5. August sein, also jener Tag, an dem 1950 die "Charta der deutschen Heimatvertriebenen" in Stuttgart angenommen wurde. Der Entschluss traf im Bundestag auf den Widerstand der Opposition - aber auch auf scharfe Kritik in Polen.}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Polanski2011, author = {Polanski, Stefan}, title = {Simulation der indischen Monsunzirkulation mit dem Regionalen Klimamodell HIRHAM}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52508}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2011}, abstract = {In dieser Arbeit wird das regionale Klimamodell HIRHAM mit einer horizontalen Aufl{\"o}sung von 50 km und 19 vertikalen Schichten erstmals auf den asiatischen Kontinent angewendet, um die indische Monsunzirkulation unter rezenten und pal{\"a}oklimatischen Bedingungen zu simulieren. Das Integrationsgebiet des Modells erstreckt sich von etwa 0ºN - 50ºN und 42ºE - 110ºE und bedeckt dabei sowohl die hohe Topographie des Himalajas und Tibet Plateaus als auch den n{\"o}rdlichen Indischen Ozean. Das Ziel besteht in der Beschreibung der regionalen Kopplung zwischen der Monsunzirkulation und den orographischen sowie diabatischen Antriebsmechanismen. Eine 44-j{\"a}hrige Modellsimulation von 1958-2001, die am seitlichen und unteren Rand von ECMWF Reanalysen (ERA40) angetrieben wird, bildet die Grundlage f{\"u}r die Validierung der Modellergebnisse mit Beobachtungen auf der Basis von Stations- und Gitterdatens{\"a}tzen. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der atmosph{\"a}rischen Zirkulation, der Temperatur und dem Niederschlag im Sommer- und Wintermonsun, wobei die Qualit{\"a}t des Modells sowohl in Bezug zur langfristigen und dekadischen Klimatologie als auch zur interannuellen Variabilit{\"a}t evaluiert wird. Im Zusammenhang mit einer realistischen Reproduktion der Modelltopographie kann f{\"u}r die Muster der Zirkulation und Temperatur eine gute {\"U}bereinstimmung zwischen Modell und Daten nachgewiesen werden. Der simulierte Niederschlag zeigt eine bessere {\"U}bereinstimmung mit einem hoch aufgel{\"o}sten Gitterdatensatz {\"u}ber der Landoberfl{\"a}che Zentralindiens und in den Hochgebirgsregionen, der den Vorteil des Regionalmodells gegen{\"u}ber der antreibenden Reanalyse hervorhebt. In verschiedenen Fall- und Sensitivit{\"a}tsstudien werden die wesentlichen Antriebsfaktoren des indischen Monsuns (Meeresoberfl{\"a}chentemperaturen, St{\"a}rke des winterlichen Sibirischen Hochs und Anomalien der Bodenfeuchte) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass die Simulation dieser Mechanismen auch mit einem Regionalmodell sehr schwierig ist, da die Komplexit{\"a}t des Monsunsystems hochgradig nichtlinear ist und die vor allem subgridskalig wirkenden Prozesse im Modell noch nicht ausreichend parametrisiert und verstanden sind. Ein pal{\"a}oklimatisches Experiment f{\"u}r eine 44-j{\"a}hrige Zeitscheibe im mittleren Holoz{\"a}n (etwa 6000 Jahre vor heute), die am Rand von einer globalen ECHAM5 Simulation angetrieben wird, zeigt markante Ver{\"a}nderungen in der Intensit{\"a}t des Monsuns durch die unterschiedliche solare Einstrahlung, die wiederum Einfl{\"u}sse auf die SST, die Zirkulation und damit auf die Niederschlagsmuster hat.}, language = {de} } @book{OPUS4-5053, title = {Proceedings of the 5th Ph.D. Retreat of the HPI Research School on Service-oriented Systems Engineering}, editor = {Meinel, Christoph and Plattner, Hasso and D{\"o}llner, J{\"u}rgen Roland Friedrich and Weske, Mathias and Polze, Andreas and Hirschfeld, Robert and Naumann, Felix and Giese, Holger}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, isbn = {978-3-86956-129-5}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-51472}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {II, 228}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Naaf2011, author = {Naaf, Tobias}, title = {Floristic homogenization and impoverishment : herb layer changes over two decades in deciduous forest patches of the Weser-Elbe region (NW Germany)}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52446}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Human-induced alterations of the environment are causing biotic changes worldwide, including the extinction of species and a mixing of once disparate floras and faunas. One type of biological communities that is expected to be particularly affected by environmental alterations are herb layer plant communities of fragmented forests such as those in the west European lowlands. However, our knowledge about current changes in species diversity and composition in these communities is limited due to a lack of adequate long-term studies. In this thesis, I resurveyed the herb layer communities of ancient forest patches in the Weser-Elbe region (NW Germany) after two decades using 175 semi-permanent plots. The general objectives were (i) to quantify changes in plant species diversity considering also between-community (β) and functional diversity, (ii) to determine shifts in species composition in terms of species' niche breadth and functional traits and (iii) to find indications on the most likely environmental drivers for the observed changes. These objectives were pursued with four independent research papers (Chapters 1-4) whose results were brought together in a General Discussion. Alpha diversity (species richness) increased by almost four species on average, whereas β diversity tended to decrease (Chapter 1). The latter is interpreted as a beginning floristic homogenization. The observed changes were primarily the result of a spread of native habitat generalists that are able to tolerate broad pH and moisture ranges. The changes in α and β diversity were only significant when species abundances were neglected (Chapters 1 and 2), demonstrating that the diversity changes resulted mainly from gains and losses of low-abundance species. This study is one of the first studies in temperate Europe that demonstrates floristic homogenization of forest plant communities at a larger than local scale. The diversity changes found at the taxonomic level did not result in similar changes at the functional level (Chapter 2). The likely reason is that these communities are functionally "buffered". Single communities involve most of the functional diversity of the regional pool, i.e., they are already functionally rich, while they are functionally redundant among each other, i.e., they are already homogeneous. Independent of taxonomic homogenization, the abundance of 30 species decreased significantly (Chapter 4). These species included 12 ancient forest species (i.e., species closely tied to forest patches with a habitat continuity > 200 years) and seven species listed on the Red List of endangered plant species in NW Germany. If these decreases continue over the next decades, local extinctions may result. This biotic impoverishment would seriously conflict with regional conservation goals. Community assembly mechanisms changed at the local level particularly at sites that experienced disturbance by forest management activities between the sampling periods (Chapter 3). Disturbance altered community assembly mechanisms in two ways: (i) it relaxed environmental filters and allowed the coexistence of different reproduction strategies, as reflected by a higher diversity of reproductive traits at the time of the resurvey, and (ii) it enhanced light availability and tightened competitive filters. These limited the functional diversity with respect to canopy height and selected for taller species. Thirty-one winner and 30 loser species, which had significantly increased or decreased in abundance, respectively, were characterized by various functional traits and ecological performances to find indications on the most likely environmental drivers for the observed floristic changes (Chapter 4). Winner species had higher seed longevity, flowered later in the season and had more often an oceanic distribution compared to loser species. Loser species tended to have a higher specific leaf area, to be more susceptible to deer browsing and to have a performance optimum at higher soil pH values compared to winner species. Multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that disturbances due to forest management interventions were the primary cause of the species shifts. As one of the first European resurvey studies, this study provides indications that an enhanced browsing pressure due to increased deer densities and increasingly warmer winters are important drivers. The study failed to demonstrate that eutrophication and acidification due to atmospheric deposition substantially drive herb layer changes. The restriction of the sample to the most base-rich sites in the region is discussed as a likely reason. Furthermore, the decline of several ancient forest species is discussed as an indication that the forest patches are still paying off their "extinction debt", i.e., exhibit a delayed response to forest fragmentation.}, language = {en} }