@phdthesis{Vlasov2015,
  author    = {Vlasov, Vladimir},
  title     = {Synchronization of oscillatory networks in terms of global variables},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-78182},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {82},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Synchronization of large ensembles of oscillators is an omnipresent phenomenon observed in different fields of science like physics, engineering, life sciences, etc. The most simple setup is that of globally coupled phase oscillators, where all the oscillators contribute to a global field which acts on all oscillators. This formulation of the problem was pioneered by Winfree and Kuramoto. Such a setup gives a possibility for the analysis of these systems in terms of global variables. In this work we describe nontrivial collective dynamics in oscillator populations coupled via mean fields in terms of global variables. We consider problems which cannot be directly reduced to standard Kuramoto and Winfree models. In the first part of the thesis we adopt a method introduced by Watanabe and Strogatz. The main idea is that the system of identical oscillators of particular type can be described by a low-dimensional system of global equations. This approach enables us to perform a complete analytical analysis for a special but vast set of initial conditions. Furthermore, we show how the approach can be expanded for some nonidentical systems. We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz approach to arrays of Josephson junctions and systems of identical phase oscillators with leader-type coupling. In the next parts of the thesis we consider the self-consistent mean-field theory method that can be applied to general nonidentical globally coupled systems of oscillators both with or without noise. For considered systems a regime, where the global field rotates uniformly, is the most important one. With the help of this approach such solutions of the self-consistency equation for an arbitrary distribution of frequencies and coupling parameters can be found analytically in the parametric form, both for noise-free and noisy cases. We apply this method to deterministic Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of spatially distributed oscillators with leader-type coupling. Furthermore, with the proposed self-consistent approach we fully characterize rotating wave solutions of noisy Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of noisy oscillators with bi-harmonic coupling. Whenever possible, a complete analysis of global dynamics is performed and compared with direct numerical simulations of large populations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Niedl2015,
  author    = {Niedl, Robert Raimund},
  title     = {Nichtlineare Kinetik und responsive Hydrogele f{\"u}r papierbasierte Schnelltestanwendungen},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77735},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {iv, 128},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Viele klinische Schnelltestsysteme ben{\"o}tigen vorpr{\"a}parierte oder aufgereinigte Analyte mit frisch hergestellten L{\"o}sungen. Fernab standardisierter Laborbedingungen wie z.B. in Entwicklungsl{\"a}ndern oder Krisengebieten sind solche Voraussetzungen oft nur unter einem hohen Aufwand herstellbar. Zus{\"a}tzlich stellt die erforderliche Sensitivit{\"a}t die Entwicklung einfach zu handhabender Testsysteme vor große Herausforderungen. Autokatalytische Reaktionen, die sich mit Hilfe sehr geringer Initiatorkonzentrationen ausl{\"o}sen lassen, k{\"o}nnen hier eine Perspektive f{\"u}r Signalverst{\"a}rkungsprozesse bieten. Aus diesem Grund wird im ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit das Verhalten der autokatalytischen Arsenit-Jodat-Reaktion in einem mikrofluidischen Kanal untersucht. Dabei werden insbesondere die diffusiven und konvektiven Einfl{\"u}sse auf die Reaktionskinetik im Vergleich zu makroskopischen Volumenmengen betrachtet. Im zweiten Teil werden thermoresponsive Hydrogele mit einem kanalstrukturierten Papiernetzwerk zu einem neuartigen, kapillargetriebenen, extern steuerbaren Mikrofluidik-System kombiniert. Das hier vorgestellte Konzept durch Hydrogele ein papierbasiertes LOC-System zu steuern, erm{\"o}glicht zuk{\"u}nftig die Herstellung von komplexeren, steuerbaren Point-Of-Care Testsystemen (POCT). Durch z.B. einen thermischen Stimulus, wird das L{\"o}sungsverhalten eines Hydrogels so ver{\"a}ndert, dass die gespeicherte Fl{\"u}ssigkeit freigesetzt und durch die Kapillarkraft des Papierkanals ins System transportiert wird. Die Eigenschaften dieses Gelnetzwerks k{\"o}nnen dabei so eingestellt werden, dass eine Freisetzung von Fl{\"u}ssigkeiten sogar bei K{\"o}rpertemperatur m{\"o}glich w{\"a}re und damit eine Anwendung g{\"a}nzlich ohne weitere Hilfsmittel denkbar ist. F{\"u}r die Anwendung notwendige Chemikalien oder Enzyme lassen sich hierbei bequem in getrocknetem Zustand im Papiersubstrat vorlagern und bei Bedarf in L{\"o}sung bringen. Im abschließenden dritten Teil der Arbeit wird ein durch Hydrogele betriebener, Antik{\"o}rper-basierter Mikroorganismenschnelltest f{\"u}r Escherichia coli pr{\"a}sentiert. Dar{\"u}ber hinaus wird weiterf{\"u}hrend eine einfache Methode zur Funktionalisierung eines Hydrogels mit Biomolek{\"u}len {\"u}ber EDC/NHS-Kopplung vorgestellt.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Metzner2015,
  author    = {Metzner, Paul-Philipp},
  title     = {Eye movements and brain responses in natural reading},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-82806},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xv, 160},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Intuitively, it is clear that neural processes and eye movements in reading are closely connected, but only few studies have investigated both signals simultaneously. Instead, the usual approach is to record them in separate experiments and to subsequently consolidate the results. However, studies using this approach have shown that it is feasible to coregister eye movements and EEG in natural reading and contributed greatly to the understanding of oculomotor processes in reading. The present thesis builds upon that work, assessing to what extent coregistration can be helpful for sentence processing research. In the first study, we explore how well coregistration is suited to study subtle effects common to psycholinguistic experiments by investigating the effect of distance on dependency resolution. The results demonstrate that researchers must improve the signal-to-noise ratio to uncover more subdued effects in coregistration. In the second study, we compare oscillatory responses in different presentation modes. Using robust effects from world knowledge violations, we show that the generation and retrieval of memory traces may differ between natural reading and word-by-word presentation. In the third study, we bridge the gap between our knowledge of behavioral and neural responses to integration difficulties in reading by analyzing the EEG in the context of regressive saccades. We find the P600, a neural indicator of recovery processes, when readers make a regressive saccade in response to integration difficulties. The results in the present thesis demonstrate that coregistration can be a useful tool for the study of sentence processing. However, they also show that it may not be suitable for some questions, especially if they involve subtle effects.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kulikova2015,
  author    = {Kulikova, Galina},
  title     = {Source parameters of the major historical earthquakes in the Tien-Shan region from the late 19th to the early 20th century},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-88370},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiv, 164},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The Tien-Shan and the neighboring Pamir region are two of the largest mountain belts in the world. Their deformation is dominated by intermontane basins bounded by active thrust and reverse faulting. The Tien-Shan mountain belt is characterized by a very high rate of seismicity along its margins as well as within the Tien-Shan interior. The study area of the here presented thesis, the western part of the Tien-Shan region, is currently seismically active with small and moderate sized earthquakes. However, at the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century, this region was struck by a remarkable series of large magnitude (M>7) earthquakes, two of them reached magnitude 8. Those large earthquakes occurred prior to the installation of the global digital seismic network and therefore were recorded only by analog seismic instruments. The processing of the analog data brings several difficulties, for example, not always the true parameters of the recording system are known. Another complicated task is the digitization of those records - a very time-consuming and delicate part. Therefore a special set of techniques is developed and modern methods are adapted for the digitized instrumental data analysis. The main goal of the presented thesis is to evaluate the impact of large magnitude M≥7.0 earthquakes, which occurred at the turn of 19th to 20th century in the Tien-Shan region, on the overall regional tectonics. A further objective is to investigate the accuracy of previously estimated source parameters for those earthquakes, which were mainly based on macroseismic observations, and re-estimate them based on the instrumental data. An additional aim of this study is to develop the tools and methods for faster and more productive usage of analog seismic data in modern seismology. In this thesis, the ten strongest and most interesting historical earthquakes in Tien-Shan region are analyzed. The methods and tool for digitizing and processing the analog seismic data are presented. The source parameters of the two major M≥8.0 earthquakes in the Northern Tien-Shan are re-estimated in individual case studies. Those studies are published as peer-reviewed scientific articles in reputed journals. Additionally, the Sarez-Pamir earthquake and its connection with one of the largest landslides in the world, Usoy landslide, is investigated by seismic modeling. These results are also published as a research paper. With the developed techniques, the source parameters of seven more major earthquakes in the region are determined and their impact on the regional tectonics was investigated. The large magnitudes of those earthquakes are confirmed by instrumental data. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes were determined providing evidence for responsible faults or fault systems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Schroeder2015,
  author    = {Schr{\"o}der, Christine},
  title     = {Identifizierung und Charakterisierung der Isoflavon-umsetzenden Enzyme aus dem humanen Darmbakterium Slackia isoflavoniconvertens},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-80065},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {X, 129},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Aufgrund ihrer potenziell gesundheitsf{\"o}rdernden Wirkung sind die polyphenolischen Isoflavone f{\"u}r die menschliche Ern{\"a}hrung von großem Interesse. Eine Vielzahl an experimentellen und epidemiologischen Studien zeigen f{\"u}r die in Soja enthaltenen Isoflavone Daidzein und Genistein eine pr{\"a}ventive Wirkung bez{\"u}glich hormon-abh{\"a}ngiger und altersbedingter Erkrankungen, wie Brust- und Prostatakrebs, Osteoporose, Herz-Kreislauf-Erkrankungen sowie des menopausalen Syndroms. Die Metabolisierung und Bioaktivierung dieser sekund{\"a}ren Pflanzenstoffe durch die humane intestinale Darmmikrobiota ist individuell unterschiedlich. Nur in einem geringen Teil der westlichen Bev{\"o}lkerung wird der Daidzein-Metabolit Equol durch spezifische Darmbakterien gebildet. Ein isoliertes Equol-produzierendes Bakterium des menschlichen Darmtrakts ist Slackia isoflavoniconvertens. Anhand dieser Spezies sollten die bislang unbekannten, an der Umsetzung von Daidzein und Genistein beteiligten Enzyme identifiziert und charakterisiert werden. Fermentationsexperimente mit S. isoflavoniconvertens zeigten, dass die Gene der Daidzein und Genistein-umsetzenden Enzyme nicht konstitutiv exprimiert werden, sondern induziert werden m{\"u}ssen. Mit Hilfe der zweidimensionalen differentiellen Gelelektrophorese wurden sechs Proteine detektiert, welche in einer S. isoflavoniconvertens-Kultur in Anwesenheit von Daidzein induziert wurden. Auf Grundlage einzelner Peptidsequenzen erfolgte die Sequenzierung eines Genkomplexes mit den in gleicher Orientierung angeordneten Genen der durch Daidzein induzierten Proteine. Sequenzvergleiche identifizierten zudem {\"a}quivalente Genprodukte zu den Proteinen von S. isoflavoniconvertens in anderen Equolproduzierenden Bakterien. Nach der heterologen Expression in Escherichia coli wurden drei dieser Gene durch enzymatische Aktivit{\"a}tstests als Daidzein-Reduktase (DZNR), Dihydrodaidzein-Reduktase (DHDR) und Tetrahydrodaidzein-Reduktase (THDR) identifiziert. Die Kombination der E. coli-Zellextrakte f{\"u}hrte zur vollst{\"a}ndigen Umsetzung von Daidzein {\"u}ber Dihydrodaidzein zu Equol. Neben Daidzein setzte die DZNR auch Genistein zu Dihydrogenistein um. Dies erfolgte mit einer gr{\"o}ßeren Umsatzgeschwindigkeit im Vergleich zur Reduktion von Daidzein zu Dihydrodaidzein. Enzymatische Aktivit{\"a}tstests mit dem Zellextrakt von S. isoflavoniconvertens zeigten ebenfalls eine schnellere Umsetzung von Genistein. Die Kombination der rekombinanten DHDR und THDR f{\"u}hrte zur Umsetzung von Dihydrodaidzein zu Equol. Der korrespondierende Metabolit 5-Hydroxyequol konnte als Endprodukt des Genistein-Metabolismus nicht detektiert werden. Zur Reinigung der drei identifizierten Reduktasen wurden diese genetisch an ein Strep-tag fusioniert und mittels Affinit{\"a}tschromatographie gereinigt. Die {\"u}brigen durch Daidzein induzierten Proteine IfcA, IfcBC und IfcE wurden ebenfalls in E. coli exprimiert und als Strep-Fusionsproteine gereinigt. Vergleichende Aktivit{\"a}tstests identifizierten das induzierte Protein IfcA als Dihydrodaidzein-Racemase. Diese katalysierte die Umsetzung des (R)- und (S)-Enantiomers von Dihydrodaidzein und Dihydrogenistein zum korrespondierenden Racemat. Neben dem Elektronentransfer-Flavoprotein IfcBC wurden auch die THDR, DZNR und IfcE als FAD-haltige Flavoproteine identifiziert. Zudem handelte es sich bei IfcE um ein Eisen-Schwefel-Protein. Nach Induktion der f{\"u}r die Daidzein-Umsetzung kodierenden Gene wurden mehrere verschieden lange mRNA-Transkripte gebildet. Dies zeigte, dass die Transkription des durch Daidzein induzierten Genkomplexes in S. isoflavoniconvertens nicht in Form eines einzelnen Operonsystems erfolgte. Auf Grundlage der identifizierten Daidzein-umsetzenden Enzyme kann der Mechanismus der bakteriellen Umsetzung von Isoflavonen durch S. isoflavoniconvertens eingehend erforscht werden. Die ermittelten Gensequenzen der durch Daidzein induzierten Proteine sowie die korrespondierenden Gene weiterer Equol-produzierender Bakterien bieten zudem die M{\"o}glichkeit der mikrobiellen Metagenomanalyse im humanen Darmtrakt.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Jaeger2015,
  author    = {J{\"a}ger, Lena Ann},
  title     = {Working memory and prediction in human sentence parsing},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-82517},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xi, 144},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {This dissertation investigates the working memory mechanism subserving human sentence processing and its relative contribution to processing difficulty as compared to syntactic prediction. Within the last decades, evidence for a content-addressable memory system underlying human cognition in general has accumulated (e.g., Anderson et al., 2004). In sentence processing research, it has been proposed that this general content-addressable architecture is also used for language processing (e.g., McElree, 2000). Although there is a growing body of evidence from various kinds of linguistic dependencies that is consistent with a general content-addressable memory subserving sentence processing (e.g., McElree et al., 2003; VanDyke2006), the case of reflexive-antecedent dependencies has challenged this view. It has been proposed that in the processing of reflexive-antecedent dependencies, a syntactic-structure based memory access is used rather than cue-based retrieval within a content-addressable framework (e.g., Sturt, 2003). Two eye-tracking experiments on Chinese reflexives were designed to tease apart accounts assuming a syntactic-structure based memory access mechanism from cue-based retrieval (implemented in ACT-R as proposed by Lewis and Vasishth (2005). In both experiments, interference effects were observed from noun phrases which syntactically do not qualify as the reflexive's antecedent but match the animacy requirement the reflexive imposes on its antecedent. These results are interpreted as evidence against a purely syntactic-structure based memory access. However, the exact pattern of effects observed in the data is only partially compatible with the Lewis and Vasishth cue-based parsing model. Therefore, an extension of the Lewis and Vasishth model is proposed. Two principles are added to the original model, namely 'cue confusion' and 'distractor prominence'. Although interference effects are generally interpreted in favor of a content-addressable memory architecture, an alternative explanation for interference effects in reflexive processing has been proposed which, crucially, might reconcile interference effects with a structure-based account. It has been argued that interference effects do not necessarily reflect cue-based retrieval interference in a content-addressable memory but might equally well be accounted for by interference effects which have already occurred at the moment of encoding the antecedent in memory (Dillon, 2011). Three experiments (eye-tracking and self-paced reading) on German reflexives and Swedish possessives were designed to tease apart cue-based retrieval interference from encoding interference. The results of all three experiments suggest that there is no evidence that encoding interference affects the retrieval of a reflexive's antecedent. Taken together, these findings suggest that the processing of reflexives can be explained with the same cue-based retrieval mechanism that has been invoked to explain syntactic dependency resolution in a range of other structures. This supports the view that the language processing system is located within a general cognitive architecture, with a general-purpose content-addressable working memory system operating on linguistic expressions. Finally, two experiments (self-paced reading and eye-tracking) using Chinese relative clauses were conducted to determine the relative contribution to sentence processing difficulty of working-memory processes as compared to syntactic prediction during incremental parsing. Chinese has the cross-linguistically rare property of being a language with subject-verb-object word order and pre-nominal relative clauses. This property leads to opposing predictions of expectation-based accounts and memory-based accounts with respect to the relative processing difficulty of subject vs. object relatives. Previous studies showed contradictory results, which has been attributed to different kinds local ambiguities confounding the materials (Lin and Bever, 2011). The two experiments presented are the first to compare Chinese relatives clauses in syntactically unambiguous contexts. The results of both experiments were consistent with the predictions of the expectation-based account of sentence processing but not with the memory-based account. From these findings, I conclude that any theory of human sentence processing needs to take into account the power of predictive processes unfolding in the human mind.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Gerth2015,
  author    = {Gerth, Sabrina},
  title     = {Memory limitations in sentence comprehension},
  isbn      = {978-3-86956-321-3},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-71554},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xviii, 157},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {This dissertation addresses the question of how linguistic structures can be represented in working memory. We propose a memory-based computational model that derives offline and online complexity profiles in terms of a top-down parser for minimalist grammars (Stabler, 2011). The complexity metric reflects the amount of time an item is stored in memory. The presented architecture links grammatical representations stored in memory directly to the cognitive behavior by deriving predictions about sentence processing difficulty. Results from five different sentence comprehension experiments were used to evaluate the model's assumptions about memory limitations. The predictions of the complexity metric were compared to the locality (integration and storage) cost metric of Dependency Locality Theory (Gibson, 2000). Both metrics make comparable offline and online predictions for four of the five phenomena. The key difference between the two metrics is that the proposed complexity metric accounts for the structural complexity of intervening material. In contrast, DLT's integration cost metric considers the number of discourse referents, not the syntactic structural complexity. We conclude that the syntactic analysis plays a significant role in memory requirements of parsing. An incremental top-down parser based on a grammar formalism easily computes offline and online complexity profiles, which can be used to derive predictions about sentence processing difficulty.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Reimer2015,
  author    = {Reimer, Anna Maria},
  title     = {The poetics of the real and aesthetics of the reel},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-95660},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {298},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The dissertation proposes that the spread of photography and popular cinema in 19th- and 20th-century-India have shaped an aesthetic and affective code integral to the reading and interpretation of Indian English novels, particularly when they address photography and/or cinema film, as in the case of the four corpus texts. In analyzing the nexus between 'real' and 'reel', the dissertation shows how the texts address the reader as media consumer and virtual image projector. Furthermore, the study discusses the Indian English novel against the backdrop of the cultural and medial transformations of the 20th century to elaborate how these influenced the novel's aesthetics. Drawing upon reception aesthetics, the author devises the concept of the 'implied spectator' to analyze the aesthetic impact of the novels' images as visual textures. No God in Sight (2005) by Altaf Tyrewala comprises of a string of 41 interior monologues, loosely connected through their narrators' random encounters in Mumbai in the year 2000. Although marked by continuous perspective shifts, the text creates a sensation of acute immediacy. Here, the reader is addressed as implied spectator and is sutured into the narrated world like a film spectator ― an effect created through the use of continuity editing as a narrative technique. Similarly, Ruchir Joshi's The Last Jet Engine Laugh (2002) coll(oc)ates disparate narrative perspectives and explores photography as an artistic practice, historiographic recorder and epistemological tool. The narrative appears guided by the random viewing of old photographs by the protagonist and primary narrator, the photographer Paresh Bhatt. However, it is the photographic negative and the practice of superimposition that render this string of episodes and different perspectives narratively consequential and cosmologically meaningful. Photography thus marks the perfect symbiosis of autobiography and historiography. Tabish Khair's Filming. A Love Story (2007) immerses readers in the cine-aesthetic of 1930s and 40s Bombay film, the era in which the embedded plot is set. Plotline, central scenes and characters evoke the key films of Indian cinema history such as Satyajit Ray's "Pather Panchali" or Raj Kapoor's "Awara". Ultimately, the text written as film dissolves the boundary between fiction and (narrated) reality, reel and real, thereby showing that the images of individual memory are inextricably intertwined with and shaped by collective memory. Ultimately, the reconstruction of the past as and through film(s) conquers trauma and endows the Partition of India as a historic experience of brutal contingency with meaning. The Bioscope Man (Indrajit Hazra, 2008) is a picaresque narrative set in Calcutta - India's cultural capital and birthplace of Indian cinema at the beginning of the 20th century. The autodiegetic narrator Abani Chatterjee relates his rise and fall as silent film star, alternating between the modes of tell and show. He is both autodiegetic narrator and spectator or perceiving consciousness, seeing himself in his manifold screen roles. Beyond his film roles however, the narrator remains a void. The marked psychoanalytical symbolism of the text is accentuated by repeated invocations of dark caves and the laterna magica. Here too, 'reel life' mirrors and foreshadows real life as Indian and Bengali history again interlace with private history. Abani Chatterjee thus emerges as a quintessentially modern man of no qualities who assumes definitive shape only in the lost reels of the films he starred in. The final chapter argues that the static images and visual frames forwarded in the texts observe an integral psychological function: Premised upon linear perspective they imply a singular, static subjectivity appealing to the postmodern subject. In the corpus texts, the rise of digital technology in the 1990s thus appears not so much to have displaced older image repertories, practices and media techniques, than it has lent them greater visibility and appeal. Moreover, bricolage and pastiche emerge as cultural techniques which marked modernity from its inception. What the novels thus perpetuate is a media archeology not entirely servant to the poetics of the real. The permeable subject and the notion of the gaze as an active exchange as encapsulated in the concept of darshan - ideas informing all four texts - bespeak the resilience of a mythical universe continually re-instantiated in new technologies and uses. Eventually, the novels convey a sense of subalternity to a substantially Hindu nationalist history and historiography, the centrifugal force of which developed in the twentieth century and continues into the present.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Boettle2015,
  author    = {B{\"o}ttle, Markus},
  title     = {Coastal floods in view of sea level rise},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-91074},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiii, 111},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage. Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities. The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Pradhan2015,
  author    = {Pradhan, Prajal},
  title     = {Food demand and supply under global change},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77849},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xvi, 141},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40\% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5 by 22-46\%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4\% to 16\%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.},
  language  = {en}
}