@article{KoussoroplisPincebourdeWacker2017,
  author    = {Koussoroplis, Apostolos-Manuel and Pincebourde, Sylvain and Wacker, Alexander},
  title     = {Understanding and predicting physiological performance of organisms in fluctuating and multifactorial environments},
  series = {Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.},
  volume    = {87},
  journal   = {Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0012-9615},
  doi       = {10.1002/ecm.1247},
  pages     = {178 -- 197},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Understanding how variance in environmental factors affects physiological performance, population growth, and persistence is central in ecology. Despite recent interest in the effects of variance in single biological drivers, such as temperature, we have lacked a comprehensive framework for predicting how the variances and covariances between multiple environmental factors will affect physiological rates. Here, we integrate current theory on variance effects with co-limitation theory into a single unified conceptual framework that has general applicability. We show how the framework can be applied (1) to generate mathematically tractable predictions of the physiological effects of multiple fluctuating co-limiting factors, (2) to understand how each co-limiting factor contributes to these effects, and (3) to detect mechanisms such as acclimation or physiological stress when they are at play. We show that the statistical covariance of co-limiting factors, which has not been considered before, can be a strong driver of physiological performance in various ecological contexts. Our framework can provide powerful insights on how the global change-induced shifts in multiple environmental factors affect the physiological performance of organisms.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BecherGrimmThorbeketal.2014,
  author    = {Becher, Matthias A. and Grimm, Volker and Thorbek, Pernille and Horn, Juliane and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L.},
  title     = {BEEHAVE: a systems model of honeybee colony dynamics and foraging to explore multifactorial causes of colony failure},
  series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  volume    = {51},
  journal   = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0021-8901},
  doi       = {10.1111/1365-2664.12222},
  pages     = {470 -- 482},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {BEEHAVE offers a valuable tool for researchers to design and focus field experiments, for regulators to explore the relative importance of stressors to devise management and policy advice and for beekeepers to understand and predict varroa dynamics and effects of management interventions. We expect that scientists and stakeholders will find a variety of applications for BEEHAVE, stimulating further model development and the possible inclusion of other stressors of potential importance to honeybee colony dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BecherOsborneThorbeketal.2013,
  author    = {Becher, Matthias A. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Thorbek, Pernille and Kennedy, Peter J. and Grimm, Volker},
  title     = {Towards a systems approach for understanding honeybee decline - a stocktaking and synthesis of existing models},
  series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  volume    = {50},
  journal   = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0021-8901},
  doi       = {10.1111/1365-2664.12112},
  pages     = {868 -- 880},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {1. The health of managed and wild honeybee colonies appears to have declined substantially in Europe and the United States over the last decade. Sustainability of honeybee colonies is important not only for honey production, but also for pollination of crops and wild plants alongside other insect pollinators. A combination of causal factors, including parasites, pathogens, land use changes and pesticide usage, are cited as responsible for the increased colony mortality. 2. However, despite detailed knowledge of the behaviour of honeybees and their colonies, there are no suitable tools to explore the resilience mechanisms of this complex system under stress. Empirically testing all combinations of stressors in a systematic fashion is not feasible. We therefore suggest a cross-level systems approach, based on mechanistic modelling, to investigate the impacts of (and interactions between) colony and land management. 3. We review existing honeybee models that are relevant to examining the effects of different stressors on colony growth and survival. Most of these models describe honeybee colony dynamics, foraging behaviour or honeybee - varroa mite - virus interactions. 4. We found that many, but not all, processes within honeybee colonies, epidemiology and foraging are well understood and described in the models, but there is no model that couples in-hive dynamics and pathology with foraging dynamics in realistic landscapes. 5. Synthesis and applications. We describe how a new integrated model could be built to simulate multifactorial impacts on the honeybee colony system, using building blocks from the reviewed models. The development of such a tool would not only highlight empirical research priorities but also provide an important forecasting tool for policy makers and beekeepers, and we list examples of relevant applications to bee disease and landscape management decisions.},
  language  = {en}
}