@article{SudibyoEiblHainzletal.2022, author = {Sudibyo, Maria R. P. and Eibl, Eva P. S. and Hainzl, Sebastian and Hersir, Gylfi P{\´a}ll}, title = {Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {127}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {10}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2022JB024840}, pages = {15}, year = {2022}, abstract = {A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute-long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions.}, language = {en} } @article{GassmannNunkooTiberiusetal.2021, author = {Gassmann, Shari-Estelle and Nunkoo, Robin and Tiberius, Victor and Kraus, Sascha}, title = {My home is your castle}, series = {International journal of contemporary hospitality management}, volume = {33}, journal = {International journal of contemporary hospitality management}, number = {2}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Bingley}, issn = {0959-6119}, doi = {10.1108/IJCHM-06-2020-0596}, pages = {467 -- 489}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Purpose This paper aims to formulate the most probable future scenario for the accommodation sharing sector within the next five to ten years. It addresses the following six thematic aspects: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies the most likely holistic future scenario by conducting a two-stage Delphi study involving 59 expert panelists. It addresses 33 projections for six thematic sections of the accommodation sharing industry: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Findings The results indicate that the number of shared accommodations and users of home-sharing will increase. Moreover, the cost advantage is the predominant driver for users to engage in the accommodation sharing segment, and for the hosts, the generation of an extra income is the primary incentive. Finally, the regulation within this industry is expected to be more effective in the foreseeable future. Practical implications The results are critical, not only to advance our theoretical understanding and stimulate critical discussions on the long-term development of accommodation sharing but also to assist governments and policymakers who have an interest in developing and regulating this sector and developers seeking business opportunities. Originality/value While there is ample knowledge about the past and current development of accommodation sharing in tourism, little is understood about its potential future development and implications for consumers, the economy, and society. To date, no scientific research is available that develops scenarios about the future of accommodation sharing.}, language = {en} } @article{PrommerTiberiusKraus2020, author = {Prommer, Lisa and Tiberius, Victor and Kraus, Sascha}, title = {Exploring the future of startup leadership development}, series = {Journal of Business Venturing Insights}, volume = {14}, journal = {Journal of Business Venturing Insights}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2352-6734}, doi = {10.1016/j.jbvi.2020.e00200}, pages = {10}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Leadership development (LD) is a crucial success factor for startups to increase their human capital, survival rate, and overall performance. However, only a minority of young ventures actively engage in LD, and research rather focuses on large corporations and SMEs, which do not share the typical startup characteristics such as a rather young workforce, flat hierarchies, resource scarcity, and high time pressure. To overcome this practical and theoretical lack of knowledge, we engage in foresight and explore which leadership development techniques will be most relevant for startups within the next five to ten years. To formulate the most probable scenario, we conduct an international, two-stage Delphi study with 27 projections among industry experts. According to the expert panel, the majority of startups will engage in leadership development over the next decade. Most startups will aim to develop the leadership capabilities of their workforce as a whole and use external support. The most prominent prospective LD measures in startups include experiential learning methods, such as action learning, developmental job assignments, multi-rater feedback, as well as digital experiential learning programs, and developmental relationships such as coaching in digital one-to-one sessions. Self-managed learning will play a more important role than formal training.}, language = {en} } @article{PennekampIlesGarlandetal.2019, author = {Pennekamp, Frank and Iles, Alison C. and Garland, Joshua and Brennan, Georgina and Brose, Ulrich and Gaedke, Ursula and Jacob, Ute and Kratina, Pavel and Matthews, Blake and Munch, Stephan and Novak, Mark and Palamara, Gian Marco and Rall, Bjorn C. and Rosenbaum, Benjamin and Tabi, Andrea and Ward, Colette and Williams, Richard and Ye, Hao and Petchey, Owen L.}, title = {The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting}, series = {Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.}, volume = {89}, journal = {Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0012-9615}, doi = {10.1002/ecm.1359}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @article{AyzelVarentsovaErinaetal.2019, author = {Ayzel, Georgy and Varentsova, Natalia and Erina, Oxana and Sokolov, Dmitriy and Kurochkina, Liubov and Moreydo, Vsevolod}, title = {OpenForecast}, series = {Water : Molecular Diversity Preservation International}, volume = {11}, journal = {Water : Molecular Diversity Preservation International}, number = {8}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2073-4441}, doi = {10.3390/w11081546}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.}, language = {en} } @article{LeungLeutbecherReichetal.2019, author = {Leung, Tsz Yan and Leutbecher, Martin and Reich, Sebastian and Shepherd, Theodore G.}, title = {Atmospheric Predictability: Revisiting the Inherent Finite-Time Barrier}, series = {Journal of the atmospheric sciences}, volume = {76}, journal = {Journal of the atmospheric sciences}, number = {12}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0022-4928}, doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-19-0057.1}, pages = {3883 -- 3892}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The accepted idea that there exists an inherent finite-time barrier in deterministically predicting atmospheric flows originates from Edward N. Lorenz's 1969 work based on two-dimensional (2D) turbulence. Yet, known analytic results on the 2D Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations suggest that one can skillfully predict the 2D N-S system indefinitely far ahead should the initial-condition error become sufficiently small, thereby presenting a potential conflict with Lorenz's theory. Aided by numerical simulations, the present work reexamines Lorenz's model and reviews both sides of the argument, paying particular attention to the roles played by the slope of the kinetic energy spectrum. It is found that when this slope is shallower than -3, the Lipschitz continuity of analytic solutions (with respect to initial conditions) breaks down as the model resolution increases, unless the viscous range of the real system is resolved—which remains practically impossible. This breakdown leads to the inherent finite-time limit. If, on the other hand, the spectral slope is steeper than -3, then the breakdown does not occur. In this way, the apparent contradiction between the analytic results and Lorenz's theory is reconciled.}, language = {en} } @article{SemkeTiberius2020, author = {Semke, Lisa-Marie and Tiberius, Victor}, title = {Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities}, series = {Forecasting}, volume = {2}, journal = {Forecasting}, number = {2}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2571-9394}, doi = {10.3390/forecast2020010}, pages = {180 -- 293}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm's competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance.}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzdeMesquitaKallbekkenetal.2016, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Kallbekken, Steffen and Stokman, Frans and Saelen, Hakon and Thomson, Robert}, title = {Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations}, series = {Politics and Governance}, volume = {4}, journal = {Politics and Governance}, publisher = {Cogitatio Press}, address = {Lisbon}, issn = {2183-2463}, doi = {10.17645/pag.v4i3.654}, pages = {172 -- 187}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world's leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer's Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.}, language = {en} } @article{ZoellerBenZion2014, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Ben-Zion, Yehuda}, title = {Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data}, series = {Pure and applied geophysics}, volume = {171}, journal = {Pure and applied geophysics}, number = {11}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Basel}, issn = {0033-4553}, doi = {10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1}, pages = {2955 -- 2965}, year = {2014}, abstract = {We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.}, language = {en} } @misc{NathanHorvitzHeetal.2011, author = {Nathan, Ran and Horvitz, Nir and He, Yanping and Kuparinen, Anna and Schurr, Frank Martin and Katul, Gabriel G.}, title = {Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments}, series = {Ecology letters}, volume = {14}, journal = {Ecology letters}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {1461-023X}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x}, pages = {211 -- 219}, year = {2011}, abstract = {P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.}, language = {en} }