@article{KamprathMietzner2015,
  author    = {Kamprath, Martin and Mietzner, Dana},
  title     = {The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reflective scenario-based approach in the creative industries},
  series = {Technological forecasting \& social change},
  volume    = {95},
  journal   = {Technological forecasting \& social change},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {0040-1625},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011},
  pages     = {252 -- 275},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational level. However, often these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how competences are important to the sector shift or need to be enhanced in the future. We use primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today's situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in particular for the creative industries case. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{vanderDuinHegerSchlesinger2014,
  author    = {van der Duin, Patrick and Heger, Tobias and Schlesinger, Maximilian D.},
  title     = {Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks},
  series = {Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies},
  volume    = {59},
  journal   = {Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0016-3287},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.008},
  pages     = {62 -- 78},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Along with the rise of the now popular 'open' paradigm in innovation management, networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks. This article seeks to investigate how innovation networks and foresight are related, to what extent networked foresight activities exist and how they are practiced. For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework and applied to three cases. The foresight activities are analyzed in terms of type, scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size. 'Networked foresight' is clearly observable in all three cases. Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight. However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that 'networked foresight' entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e.g., the broad resource base and the large pool of people with diverse backgrounds that are available. Furthermore, effective instruments for the reintegration of knowledge into the networks' partner organizations are needed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}