@article{ThiekenApelMerz2015, author = {Thieken, Annegret and Apel, Heiko and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Assessing the probability of large-scale flood loss events: a case study for the river Rhine, Germany}, series = {Journal of flood risk management}, volume = {8}, journal = {Journal of flood risk management}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1753-318X}, doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12091}, pages = {247 -- 262}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Flood risk analyses are often estimated assuming the same flood intensity along the river reach under study, i.e. discharges are calculated for a number of return periods T, e.g. 10 or 100 years, at several streamflow gauges. T-year discharges are regionalised and then transferred into T-year water levels, inundated areas and impacts. This approach assumes that (1) flood scenarios are homogeneous throughout a river basin, and (2) the T-year damage corresponds to the T-year discharge. Using a reach at the river Rhine, this homogeneous approach is compared with an approach that is based on four flood types with different spatial discharge patterns. For each type, a regression model was created and used in a Monte-Carlo framework to derive heterogeneous scenarios. Per scenario, four cumulative impact indicators were calculated: (1) the total inundated area, (2) the exposed settlement and industrial areas, (3) the exposed population and 4) the potential building loss. Their frequency curves were used to establish a ranking of eight past flood events according to their severity. The investigation revealed that the two assumptions of the homogeneous approach do not hold. It tends to overestimate event probabilities in large areas. Therefore, the generation of heterogeneous scenarios should receive more attention.}, language = {en} } @article{LiRybskiKropp2021, author = {Li, Yunfei and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Singularity cities}, series = {Environment and planning. B, Urban analytics and city science}, volume = {48}, journal = {Environment and planning. B, Urban analytics and city science}, number = {1}, publisher = {Sage Publ.}, address = {London}, issn = {2399-8083}, doi = {10.1177/2399808319843534}, pages = {43 -- 59}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We propose an upgraded gravitational model which provides population counts beyond the binary (urban/non-urban) city simulations. Numerically studying the model output, we find that the radial population density gradients follow power-laws where the exponent is related to the preset gravity exponent gamma. Similarly, the urban fraction decays exponentially, again determined by gamma. The population density gradient can be related to radial fractality and it turns out that the typical exponents imply that cities are basically zero-dimensional. Increasing the gravity exponent leads to extreme compactness and the loss of radial symmetry. We study the shape of the major central cluster by means of another three fractal dimensions and find that overall its fractality is dominated by the size and the influence of gamma is minor. The fundamental allometry, between population and area of the major central cluster, is related to the gravity exponent but restricted to the case of higher densities in large cities. We argue that cities are shaped by power-law proximity. We complement the numerical analysis by economics arguments employing travel costs as well as housing rent determined by supply and demand. Our work contributes to the understanding of gravitational effects, radial gradients, and urban morphology. The model allows to generate and investigate city structures under laboratory conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{RybakBentsKruegeretal.2020, author = {Rybak, Alexander and Bents, Dominik and Kr{\"u}ger, Johanna and Groth, Detlef}, title = {The end of the secular trend in Norway}, series = {Journal of biological and clinical anthropology : Anthropologischer Anzeiger ; Mitteilungsorgan der Gesellschaft f{\"u}r Anthropologie}, volume = {77}, journal = {Journal of biological and clinical anthropology : Anthropologischer Anzeiger ; Mitteilungsorgan der Gesellschaft f{\"u}r Anthropologie}, number = {5}, publisher = {Schweizerbart}, address = {Stuttgart}, issn = {0003-5548}, doi = {10.1127/anthranz/2020/1254}, pages = {415 -- 421}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Aim: We aimed to examine the distribution and secular changes of conscript body height in the geographic network of Norway since 1878 and to study its association with the degree of urbanization, and population density. Material and methods: Data on body height of Norwegian military conscripts were provided by the Statistics Norway Department (SSB). The sample comprised eight cohorts with the following measurement years: 1st 1877, 1878 and 1880, 2nd 18951897, 3rd 1915-1917, 4th 1935-1937, 5th 1955-1957, 6th 1975-1977, 7th 1995-1997, and 8th 2009-2011. For determining neighborhood correlations, a network was created consisting of neighboring counties, sharing a common border. Results: Average body height of Norwegian men increased by 10.9 cm between 1878 and 2010, but this trend was heterogeneous. Some counties increased by more than 1 cm per decade (Finmark) others by only 7 mm per decade (Sor-Trondelag). Urban counties and counties with higher population density showed stronger height trends than rural counties. The largest spread in body height between the various counties was observed in 1936 when for the first time people living in the more urban counties got taller than rural people. The height advantage of urban counties however, disappeared after 1996. At this time, also the secular trend in height had come to a halt. The secular trend in height had become obvious after the dissolution of the union between Norway and Sweden in 1905 and World War I, and was strongest between 1936 and 1956. During this period maximum between-county heterogeneity in height existed with body height differences of more than 6 cm between the tallest and the shortest county. The end of this period was characterized by social democratic reforms that flattened the income distribution, eliminated poverty, and ensured social services after World War II. Conclusion: The temporal coincidence between the trends in height, the degree of urbanization and the onset of the political transition of Norway from a Swedish province into an independent democratic wealthy modern European state after World War I and particularly after World War II, and the abatement of this trend after this period of transition had stabilized, suggest social and political components interfering with the regulation of physical growth in humans.}, language = {en} }