@article{HuggelClagueKorup2012,
  author    = {Huggel, Christian and Clague, John J. and Korup, Oliver},
  title     = {Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?},
  series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group},
  volume    = {37},
  journal   = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0197-9337},
  doi       = {10.1002/esp.2223},
  pages     = {77 -- 91},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de-glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non-linear response of firn and ice to warming; three-dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de-glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short-term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag-time effects.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KorupGoeruemHayakawa2012,
  author    = {Korup, Oliver and G{\"o}r{\"u}m, Tolga and Hayakawa, Yuichi},
  title     = {Without power? - Landslide inventories in the face of climate change},
  series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group},
  volume    = {37},
  journal   = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0197-9337},
  doi       = {10.1002/esp.2248},
  pages     = {92 -- 99},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Projected scenarios of climate change involve general predictions about the likely changes to the magnitude and frequency of landslides, particularly as a consequence of altered precipitation and temperature regimes. Whether such landslide response to contemporary or past climate change may be captured in differing scaling statistics of landslide size distributions and the erosion rates derived thereof remains debated. We test this notion with simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations of statistical models commonly used to characterize empirical landslide size distributions. Our results show that significant changes to total volumes contained in such inventories may be masked by statistically indistinguishable scaling parameters, critically depending on, among others, the size of the largest of landslides recorded. Conversely, comparable model parameter values may obscure significant, i.e. more than twofold, changes to landslide occurrence, and thus inferred rates of hillslope denudation and sediment delivery to drainage networks. A time series of some of Earth's largest mass movements reveals clustering near and partly before the last glacial-interglacial transition and a distinct step-over from white noise to temporal clustering around this period. However, elucidating whether this is a distinct signal of first-order climate-change impact on slope stability or simply coincides with a transition from short-term statistical noise to long-term steady-state conditions remains an important research challenge.},
  language  = {en}
}