@misc{Zoeller2017, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert}, title = {Comment on "Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation of Uncertainty of Earthquake-Occurrence Model" by Andrzej Kijko, Ansie Smit, and Markvard A. Sellevoll}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {107}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120160193}, pages = {1975 -- 1978}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Kijko et al. (2016) present various methods to estimate parameters that are relevant for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. One of these parameters, although not the most influential, is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). I show that the proposed estimation of m(max) is based on an erroneous equation related to a misuse of the estimator in Cooke (1979) and leads to unstable results. So far, reported finite estimations of m(max) arise from data selection, because the estimator in Kijko et al. (2016) diverges with finite probability. This finding is independent of the assumed distribution of earthquake magnitudes. For the specific choice of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, I illustrate the problems by deriving explicit equations. Finally, I conclude that point estimators are generally not a suitable approach to constrain m(max).}, language = {en} } @article{HoffmannWirthBessleretal.2017, author = {Hoffmann, Mathias and Wirth, Stephan J. and Bessler, Holger and Engels, Christof and Jochheim, Hubert and Sommer, Michael and Augustin, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Combining a root exclusion technique with continuous chamber and porous tube measurements for a pin-point separation of ecosystem respiration in croplands}, series = {Journal of plant nutrition and soil science = Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Pflanzenern{\"a}hrung und Bodenkunde}, volume = {181}, journal = {Journal of plant nutrition and soil science = Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Pflanzenern{\"a}hrung und Bodenkunde}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-VCH}, address = {Weinheim}, issn = {1436-8730}, doi = {10.1002/jpln.201600489}, pages = {41 -- 50}, year = {2017}, abstract = {To better assess ecosystem C budgets of croplands and understand their potential response to climate and management changes, detailed information on the mechanisms and environmental controls driving the individual C flux components are needed. This accounts in particular for the ecosystem respiration (R-eco) and its components, the autotrophic (R-a) and heterotrophic respiration (R-h) which vary tremendously in time and space. This study presents a method to separate R-eco into R-a [as the sum of R-a (shoot) and R-a (root)] and R-h in order to detect temporal and small-scale spatial dynamics within their relative contribution to overall R-eco. Thus, predominant environmental drivers and underlying mechanisms can be revealed. R-eco was derived during nighttime by automatic chamber CO2 flux measurements on plant covered plots. R-h was derived from CO2 efflux measurements, which were performed in parallel to R-eco measurements on a fallow plot using CO2 sampling tubes in 10 cm soil depth. R-a (root) was calculated as the difference between sampling tube CO2 efflux measurements on a plant covered plot and R-h. R-a (shoot) was calculated as R-eco - R-a (root) - R-h. Measurements were carried out for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) during the crop season 2015 at an experimental plot located in the hummocky ground moraine landscape of NE Germany. R-eco varied seasonally from < 1 to 9.5 g C m(-2) d(-1), and was higher in adult (a) and reproductive (r) than juvenile (j) stands (gC m(-2) d(-1): j = 1.2, a = 4.6, r = 5.3). Observed R-a and R-h were in general smaller compared to the independently measured R-eco, contributing in average 58\% and 42\% to R-eco. However, both varied strongly regarding their environmental drivers and particular contribution throughout the study period, following the seasonal development of soil temperature and moisture (R-h) as well as crop development (R-a). Thus, our results consistently revealed temporal dynamics regarding the relative contribution of R-a (root) and R-a (shoot) to R-a, as well as of R-a and R-h to R-eco. Based on the observed results, implications for partitioning of R-eco in croplands are given.}, language = {en} } @article{EmbersonGalyHovius2017, author = {Emberson, Robert and Galy, Albert and Hovius, Niels}, title = {Combined effect of carbonate and biotite dissolution in landslides biases silicate weathering proxies}, series = {Geochimica et cosmochimica acta : journal of the Geochemical Society and the Meteoritical Society}, volume = {213}, journal = {Geochimica et cosmochimica acta : journal of the Geochemical Society and the Meteoritical Society}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0016-7037}, doi = {10.1016/j.gca.2017.07.014}, pages = {418 -- 434}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Long-term estimates of the dissolution of silicate rock are generally derived from a range of isotopic proxies, such as the radiogenic strontium isotope ratio (Sr-87/Sr-86), which are preserved in sediment archives. For these systems to fairly represent silicate weathering, the changes in isotopic ratios in terrestrial surface waters should correspond to changes in the overall silicate dissolution. This assumes that the silicate mineral phases that act as sources of a given isotope dissolve at a rate that is proportional to the overall silicate weathering. Bedrock landsliding exhumes large quantities of fresh rock for weathering in transient storage, and rapid weathering in these deposits is controlled primarily by dissolution of the most reactive phases. In this study, we test the hypothesis that preferential weathering of these labile minerals can decouple the dissolution of strontium sources from the actual silicate weathering rates in the rapidly eroding Western Southern Alps (WSA) of New Zealand. We find that rapid dissolution of relatively radiogenic calcite and biotite in landslides leads to high local fluxes in strontium with isotopic ratios that offer no clear discrimination between sources. These higher fluxes of radiogenic strontium are in contrast to silicate weathering rates in landslides that are not systematically elevated. On a mountain belt scale, radiogenic strontium fluxes are not coupled to volumes of recent landslides in large (>100 km(2)) catchments, but silicate weathering fluxes are. Such decoupling is likely due first to the broad variability in the strontium content of carbonate minerals, and second to the combination of radiogenic strontium released from both biotite and carbonate in recent landslides. This study supports previous work suggesting the limited utility of strontium isotopes as a system to study silicate weathering in the WSA. Crucially however, in settings where bedrock landsliding is a dominant erosive process there is potential for both random and systematic bias in isotope proxies if the most reactive phases exposed for dissolution by landslides disproportionately contribute to the proxy of choice. This clearly suggests that the isotopic composition of marine Sr is a proxy for periods of rapid mountain uplift and erosion rather than for the associated enhanced silicate weathering. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{GhasemizadeBaroniAbbaspouretal.2017, author = {Ghasemizade, Mehdi and Baroni, Gabriele and Abbaspour, Karim and Schirmer, Mario}, title = {Combined analysis of time-varying sensitivity and identifiability indices to diagnose the response of a complex environmental model}, series = {Environmental modelling \& software with environment data news}, volume = {88}, journal = {Environmental modelling \& software with environment data news}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1364-8152}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.011}, pages = {22 -- 34}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Sensitivity and identifiability analyses are common diagnostic tools to address over-parametrization in complex environmental models, but a combined application of the two analyses is rarely conducted. In this study, we performed a temporal global sensitivity analysis using the variance-based method of Sobol' and a temporal identifiability analysis of model parameters using the dynamic identifiability method (DYNIA). We discuss the relationship between the two analyses with a focus on parameter identification and output uncertainty reduction. The hydrological model HydroGeoSphere was used to simulate daily evapotranspiration, water content, and seepage at the lysimeter scale. We found that identifiability of a parameter does not necessarily reduce output uncertainty. It was also found that the information from the main and total effects (main Sobol' sensitivity indices) is required to allow uncertainty reduction in the model output. Overall, the study highlights the role of combined temporal diagnostic tools for improving our understanding of model behavior.}, language = {en} } @article{WangBekeschusHandorfetal.2017, author = {Wang, Yongbo and Bekeschus, Benjamin and Handorf, D{\"o}rthe and Liu, Xingqi and Dallmeyer, Anne and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Coherent tropical-subtropical Holocene see-saw moisture patterns in the Eastern Hemisphere monsoon systems}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {169}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.06.006}, pages = {231 -- 242}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The concept of a Global Monsoon (GM) has been proposed based on modern precipitation observations, but its application over a wide range of temporal scales is still under debate. Here, we present a synthesis of 268 continental paleo-moisture records collected from monsoonal systems in the Eastern Hemisphere, including the East Asian Monsoon (EAsM), the Indian Monsoon (IM), the East African Monsoon (EAfM), and the Australian Monsoon (AuM) covering the last 18,000 years. The overall pattern of late Glacial to Holocene moisture change is consistent with those inferred from ice cores and marine records. With respect to the last 10,000 years (10 ka), i.e. a period that has high spatial coverage, a Fuzzy c-Means clustering analysis of the moisture index records together with "Xie-Beni" index reveals four clusters of our data set. The paleoclimatic meaning of each cluster is interpreted considering the temporal evolution and spatial distribution patterns. The major trend in the tropical AuM, EAfM, and IM regions is a gradual decrease in moisture conditions since the early Holocene. Moisture changes in the EAsM regions show maximum index values between 8 and 6 ka. However, records located in nearby subtropical areas, i.e. in regions not influenced by the intertropical convergence zone, show an opposite trend compared to the tropical monsoon regions (AuM, EAfM and IM), i.e. a gradual increase. Analyses of modern meteorological data reveal the same spatial patterns as in the paleoclimate records such that, in times of overall monsoon strengthening, lower precipitation rates are observed in the nearby subtropical areas. We explain this pattern as the effect of a strong monsoon circulation suppressing air uplift in nearby subtropical areas, and hence hindering precipitation. By analogy to the modern system, this would mean that during the early Holocene strong monsoon period, the intensified ascending airflows within the monsoon domains led to relatively weaker ascending or even descending airflows in the adjacent subtropical regions, resulting in a precipitation deficit compared to the late Holocene. Our conceptual model therefore integrates regionally contrasting moisture changes into the Global Monsoon hypothesis. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{HeineckeMischkeAdleretal.2017, author = {Heinecke, Liv and Mischke, Steffen and Adler, Karsten and Barth, Anja and Biskaborn, Boris and Plessen, Birgit and Nitze, Ingmar and Kuhn, Gerhard and Rajabov, Ilhomjon and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Climatic and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Tajikistan) during the last similar to 29 cal ka}, series = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, volume = {58}, journal = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-2728}, doi = {10.1007/s10933-017-9980-0}, pages = {317 -- 334}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last similar to 29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO2 (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOCBr), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, delta(18) OCarb) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.}, language = {en} } @article{LechleitnerBreitenbachChengetal.2017, author = {Lechleitner, Franziska A. and Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Cheng, Hai and Plessen, Birgit and Rehfeld, Kira and Goswami, Bedartha and Marwan, Norbert and Eroglu, Deniz and Adkins, Jess F. and Haug, Gerald}, title = {Climatic and in-cave influences on delta O-18 and delta C-13 in a stalagmite from northeastern India through the last deglaciation}, series = {Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {88}, journal = {Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal}, publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press}, address = {New York}, issn = {0033-5894}, doi = {10.1017/qua.2017.72}, pages = {458 -- 471}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Northeastern (NE) India experiences extraordinarily pronounced seasonal climate, governed by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The vulnerability of this region to floods and droughts calls for detailed and highly resolved paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the recurrence rate and driving factors of ISM changes. We use stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta C-13) from stalagmite MAW-6 from Mawmluh Cave to infer climate and environmental conditions in NE India over the last deglaciation (16-6ka). We interpret stalagmite delta O-18 as reflecting ISM strength, whereas delta C-13 appears to be driven by local hydroclimate conditions. Pronounced shifts in ISM strength over the deglaciation are apparent from the delta O-18 record, similarly to other records from monsoonal Asia. The ISM is weaker during the late glacial (LG) period and the Younger Dryas, and stronger during the BOlling-Allerod and Holocene. Local conditions inferred from the delta C-13 record appear to have changed less substantially over time, possibly related to the masking effect of changing precipitation seasonality. Time series analysis of the delta O-18 record reveals more chaotic conditions during the late glacial and higher predictability during the Holocene, likely related to the strengthening of the seasonal recurrence of the ISM with the onset of the Holocene.}, language = {en} } @article{NazarovaBleibtreuHoffetal.2017, author = {Nazarova, Larisa B. and Bleibtreu, Annette and Hoff, Ulrike and Dirksen, Veronika and Diekmann, Bernhard}, title = {Changes in temperature and water depth of a small mountain lake during the past 3000 years in Central Kamchatka reflected by a chironomid record}, series = {Quaternary international : the journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research}, volume = {447}, journal = {Quaternary international : the journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1040-6182}, doi = {10.1016/j.quaint.2016.10.008}, pages = {46 -- 58}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We investigated chironomid assemblages of a well-dated sediment core from a small seepage lake situated at the eastern slope of the Central Kamchatka Mountain Chain, Far East Russia. The chironomid fauna of the investigated Sigrid Lake is dominated by littoral taxa that are sensitive to fluctuations of the water level. Two groups of taxa interchangeably dominate the record responding to the changes in the lake environment during the past 2800 years. The first group of littoral phytophilic taxa includes Psectrocladius sordidellus-type, Corynoneura arctica-type and Dicrotendipes nervosus-type. The abundances of the taxa from this group have the strongest influence on the variations of PCA 1, and these taxa mostly correspond to low water levels, moderate temperatures and slightly acidified conditions. The second group of taxa includes Microtendipes pedellus-type, Tanytarsus lugens-type, and Tanytarsus pallidicornistype. The variations in the abundances of these taxa, and especially of M. pedellus-type, are in accordance with PCA 2 and correspond to the higher water level in the lake, more oligotrophic and neutral pH conditions. Water depths (WD) were reconstructed, using a modern chironomid-based temperature and water depth calibration data set (training set) and inference model from East Siberia (Nazarova et al., 2011). Mean July air temperatures (T July) were inferred using a chironomid-based temperature inference model based on a modern calibration data set for the Far East (Nazarova et al., 2015). The application of transfer functions resulted in reconstructed T July fluctuations of approximately 3 degrees C over the last 2800 years. Low temperatures (11.0-12.0 degrees C) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 1700 and 1500 cal yr BP (corresponding to the Kofun cold stage) and between ca 1200 and 150 cal yr BP (partly corresponding to the Little Ice Age [LIA]). Warm periods (modern T July or higher) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 2700 and 1800 cal yr BP, 1500 and 1300 cal yr BP and after 150 cal yr BP. WD reconstruction revealed that the lake level was lower than its present level at the beginning of the record between ca 2600 and 2300 cal yr BP and ca 550 cal yr BP. Between ca 2300 and 700 cal yr BP as well as between 450 and 150 cal yr BP, the lake level was higher than it is today, most probably reflecting more humid conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @misc{SernoWincklerAndersonetal.2017, author = {Serno, Sascha and Winckler, Gisela and Anderson, Robert F. and Jaccard, Samuel L. and Kienast, Stephanie S. and Haug, Gerald H.}, title = {Change in dust seasonality as the primary driver for orbital-scale dust storm variability in East Asia}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2016GL072345}, pages = {3796 -- 3805}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Glacial periods are recognized to be dustier than interglacials, but the conditions leading to greater dust mobilization are poorly defined. Here we present a new high-resolution dust record based on Th-230-normalized He-4 flux from Ocean Drilling Program site 882 in the Subarctic North Pacific covering the last 170,000years. By analogy with modern relationships, we infer the mechanisms controlling orbital-scale dust storm variability in East Asia. We propose that orbital-scale dust flux variability is the result of an expansion of the dust season into summer, in addition to more intense dust storms during spring and fall. The primary drivers influencing dust flux include summer insolation at subarctic latitudes and variable Siberian alpine glaciation, which together control the cold air reservoir in Siberia. Changes in the extent of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets may be a secondary control.}, language = {en} } @article{CookHoviusWittmannOelzeetal.2017, author = {Cook, Kristen L. and Hovius, Niels and Wittmann-Oelze, Hella and Heimsath, Arjun M. and Lee, Yuan-Hsi}, title = {Causes of rapid uplift and exceptional topography of Gongga Shan on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {481}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.043}, pages = {328 -- 337}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Erosion and tectonic uplift are widely thought to be coupled through feedbacks involving orographic precipitation, relief development, and crustal weakening. In many orogenic systems, it can be difficult to distinguish whether true feedbacks exist, or whether observed features are a consequence of tectonic forcing. To help elucidate these interactions, we examine Gongga Shan, a 7556 m peak on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau where cosmogenic Be-10 basin-wide erosion rates reach >5 mm/yr, defining a region of localized rapid erosion associated with a restraining bend in the left-lateral Xianshuihe Fault. Erosion rates are consistent with topography, thermochronometry, and geodetic data, suggesting a stable pattern of uplift and exhumation over at least the past 2-3 My. Transpression along the Xianshuihe Fault, orographically enhanced precipitation, thermally weakened crust, and substantial local relief all developed independently in the Gongga region and existed there prior to the uplift of Gongga Shan. However, only where all of these conditions are present do the observed topographic and erosional extremes exist, and their relative timing indicates that these conditions are not a consequence of rapid uplift. We conclude that their collocation at 3-4 Ma set into motion a series of feedbacks between erosion and uplift that has resulted in the exceptionally high topography and rapid erosion rates observed today.}, language = {en} }