@article{vonSpechtOeztuerkVehetal.2019,
  author    = {von Specht, Sebastian and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Veh, Georg and Cotton, Fabrice and Korup, Oliver},
  title     = {Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering},
  series = {Solid earth},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Solid earth},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1869-9510},
  doi       = {10.5194/se-10-463-2019},
  pages     = {463 -- 486},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019,
  author    = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane},
  title     = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {9},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5},
  pages     = {379 -- 383},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.},
  language  = {en}
}