@article{ZurellvonWehrdenRoticsetal.2018, author = {Zurell, Damaris and von Wehrden, Henrik and Rotics, Shay and Kaatz, Michael and Gross, Helge and Schlag, Lena and Sch{\"a}fer, Merlin and Sapir, Nir and Turjeman, Sondra and Wikelski, Martin and Nathan, Ran and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Home range size and resource use of breeding and non-breeding white storks along a land use gradient}, series = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {6}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, publisher = {Frontiers Research Foundation}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-701X}, doi = {10.3389/fevo.2018.00079}, pages = {11}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Biotelemetry is increasingly used to study animal movement at high spatial and temporal resolution and guide conservation and resource management. Yet, limited sample sizes and variation in space and habitat use across regions and life stages may compromise robustness of behavioral analyses and subsequent conservation plans. Here, we assessed variation in (i) home range sizes, (ii) home range selection, and (iii) fine-scale resource selection of white storks across breeding status and regions and test model transferability. Three study areas were chosen within the Central German breeding grounds ranging from agricultural to fluvial and marshland. We monitored GPS-locations of 62 adult white storks equipped with solar-charged GPS/3D-acceleration (ACC) transmitters in 2013-2014. Home range sizes were estimated using minimum convex polygons. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess home range selection and fine-scale resource selection by relating the home ranges and foraging sites to Corine habitat variables and normalized difference vegetation index in a presence/pseudo-absence design. We found strong variation in home range sizes across breeding stages with significantly larger home ranges in non-breeding compared to breeding white storks, but no variation between regions. Home range selection models had high explanatory power and well predicted overall density of Central German white stork breeding pairs. Also, they showed good transferability across regions and breeding status although variable importance varied considerably. Fine-scale resource selection models showed low explanatory power. Resource preferences differed both across breeding status and across regions, and model transferability was poor. Our results indicate that habitat selection of wild animals may vary considerably within and between populations, and is highly scale dependent. Thereby, home range scale analyses show higher robustness whereas fine-scale resource selection is not easily predictable and not transferable across life stages and regions. Such variation may compromise management decisions when based on data of limited sample size or limited regional coverage. We thus recommend home range scale analyses and sampling designs that cover diverse regional landscapes and ensure robust estimates of habitat suitability to conserve wild animal populations.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellJeltschDormannetal.2009, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Dormann, Carsten F. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems : how good can predictions really be?}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far- dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short- dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellEggersKaatzetal.2015, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Eggers, Ute and Kaatz, Michael and Rotics, Shay and Sapir, Nir and Wikelski, Martin and Nathan, Ran and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Individual-based modelling of resource competition to predict density-dependent population dynamics: a case study with white storks}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {124}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.01294}, pages = {319 -- 330}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Density regulation influences population dynamics through its effects on demographic rates and consequently constitutes a key mechanism explaining the response of organisms to environmental changes. Yet, it is difficult to establish the exact form of density dependence from empirical data. Here, we developed an individual-based model to explore how resource limitation and behavioural processes determine the spatial structure of white stork Ciconia ciconia populations and regulate reproductive rates. We found that the form of density dependence differed considerably between landscapes with the same overall resource availability and between home range selection strategies, highlighting the importance of fine-scale resource distribution in interaction with behaviour. In accordance with theories of density dependence, breeding output generally decreased with density but this effect was highly variable and strongly affected by optimal foraging strategy, resource detection probability and colonial behaviour. Moreover, our results uncovered an overlooked consequence of density dependence by showing that high early nestling mortality in storks, assumed to be the outcome of harsh weather, may actually result from density dependent effects on food provision. Our findings emphasize that accounting for interactive effects of individual behaviour and local environmental factors is crucial for understanding density-dependent processes within spatially structured populations. Enhanced understanding of the ways animal populations are regulated in general, and how habitat conditions and behaviour may dictate spatial population structure and demographic rates is critically needed for predicting the dynamics of populations, communities and ecosystems under changing environmental conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltsch2000, author = {Wiegand, T. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Long-term dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems : synthesis of a workshop}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandWardThulkeetal.2000, author = {Wiegand, K. and Ward, D. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {From snap-shot information to long-term population dynamics of Acacias by a simulation model}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandSchmidtJeltschetal.2000, author = {Wiegand, K. and Schmidt, H. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Linking a spatially-explicit model of acacias to GIS and remotely-sensed data}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltschWard2004, author = {Wiegand, K. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Minimum recruitment frequency in plants with episodic recruitment}, year = {2004}, abstract = {There is concern about the lack of recruitment of Acacia trees in the Negev desert of Israel. We have developed three models to estimate the frequency of recruitment necessary for long-term population survival (i.e. positive average population growth for 1,000 years and <10\% probability of extinction). Two models assume purely episodic recruitment based on the general notion that recruitment in and environments is highly episodic. They differ in that the deterministic model investigates average dynamics while the stochastic model does not. Studies indicating that recruitment episodes in and environments have been overemphasized motivated the development of the third model. This semi-stochastic model simulates a mixture of continuous and episodic recruitment. Model analysis was done analytically for the deterministic model and via running model simulations for the stochastic and semi-stochastic models. The deterministic and stochastic models predict that, on average, 2.2 and 3.7 recruitment events per century, respectively, are necessary to sustain the population. According to the semi-stochastic model, 1.6 large recruitment events per century and an annual probability of 50\% that a small recruitment event occurs are needed. A consequence of purely episodic recruitment is that all recruitment episodes produce extremely large numbers of recruits (i.e. at odds with field observations), an evaluation that holds even when considering that rare events must be large. Thus, the semi- stochastic model appears to be the most realistic model. Comparing the prediction of the semi-stochastic model to field observations in the Negev desert shows that the absence of observations of extremely large recruitment events is no reason for concern. However, the almost complete absence of small recruitment events is a serious reason for concern. The lack of recruitment may be due to decreased densities of large mammalian herbivores and might be further exacerbated by possible changes in climate, both in terms of average precipitation and the temporal distribution of rain}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltschWard2000, author = {Wiegand, K. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Do spatial effects play a role in the spatial distribution of desert dwelling Acacias?}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WieczorekKruseEppetal.2017, author = {Wieczorek, Mareike and Kruse, Stefan and Epp, Laura Saskia and Kolmogorov, Alexei and Nikolaev, Anatoly N. and Heinrich, Ingo and Jeltsch, Florian and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Zibulski, Romy and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures-a field and simulation based study}, series = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {98}, journal = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0012-9658}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1887}, pages = {2343 -- 2355}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field-and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least similar to 240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning similar to 130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future.}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannJeltschDeanetal.2002, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Jeltsch, Florian and Dean, Richard and Moloney, Kirk A. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {Does climate change in arid savanna affect the population persistence of raptors?}, year = {2002}, language = {en} }