@article{CammererThieken2013,
  author    = {Cammerer, Holger and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Historical development and future outlook of the flood damage potential of residential areas in the Alpine Lech Valley (Austria) between 1971 and 2030},
  series = {Regional environmental change},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Regional environmental change},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1436-3798},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10113-013-0407-9},
  pages     = {999 -- 1012},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {In the recent past, the Alpine Lech valley (Austria) experienced three damaging flood events within 6 years despite the various structural flood protection measures in place. For an improved flood risk management, the analysis of flood damage potentials is a crucial component. Since the expansion of built-up areas and their associated values is seen as one of the main drivers of rising flood losses, the goal of this study is to analyze the spatial development of the assets at risk, particularly of residential areas, due to land use changes over a historic period (since 1971) and up to possible shifts in future (until 2030). The analysis revealed that the alpine study area was faced to remarkable land use changes like urbanization and the decline of agriculturally used grassland areas. Although the major agglomeration of residential areas inside the flood plains took place before 1971, a steady growth of values at risk can still be observed until now. Even for the future, the trend is ongoing, but depends very much on the assumed land use scenario and the underlying land use policy. Between 1971 and 2006, the annual growth rate of the damage potential of residential areas amounted to 1.1 \% ('constant values,' i.e., asset values at constant prices of reference year 2006) or 3.0 \% ('adjusted values,' i.e., asset values adjusted by GDP increase at constant prices of reference year 2006) for three flood scenarios. For the projected time span between 2006 and 2030, a further annual increase by 1.0 \% ('constant values') or even 4.2 \% ('adjusted values') may be possible when the most extreme urbanization scenario 'Overall Growth' is considered. Although socio-economic development is regarded as the main driver for increasing flood losses, our analysis shows that settlement development does not preferably take place within flood prone areas.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CammererThiekenVerburg2013,
  author    = {Cammerer, Holger and Thieken, Annegret and Verburg, Peter H.},
  title     = {Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)},
  series = {Natural hazards : journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards},
  volume    = {68},
  journal   = {Natural hazards : journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {0921-030X},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11069-012-0280-8},
  pages     = {1243 -- 1270},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario 'Overall Risk' to 119 \% increase in the most extreme scenario 'Overall Growth' (under current spatial policy) and 159 \% increase when disregarding current building restrictions.},
  language  = {en}
}