@article{LevermannClarkMarzeionetal.2013,
  author    = {Levermann, Anders and Clark, Peter U. and Marzeion, Ben and Milne, Glenn A. and Pollard, David and Radic, Valentina and Robinson, Alexander},
  title     = {The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {110},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {34},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1219414110},
  pages     = {13745 -- 13750},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m degrees C-1 and 1.2 m degrees C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m degrees C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{StraussKulpLevermann2015,
  author    = {Strauss, Benjamin H. and Kulp, Scott and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {112},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {44},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1511186112},
  pages     = {13508 -- 13513},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KalkuhlWenz2020,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Wenz, Leonie},
  title     = {The impact of climate conditions on economic production},
  series = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  volume    = {103},
  journal   = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0095-0696},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7-14\% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73-142\$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92-181\$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchultesPiontekSoergeletal.2021,
  author    = {Schultes, Anselm and Piontek, Franziska and Soergel, Bjoern and Rogelj, Joeri and Baumstark, Lavinia and Kriegler, Elmar and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Luderer, Gunnar},
  title     = {Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {IOP Publishing},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of \$115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only.},
  language  = {en}
}