@article{StraderSchneiderSchorlemmer2017,
  author    = {Strader, Anne and Schneider, Max and Schorlemmer, Danijel},
  title     = {Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California},
  series = {Geophysical journal international},
  volume    = {211},
  journal   = {Geophysical journal international},
  publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0956-540X},
  doi       = {10.1093/gji/ggx268},
  pages     = {239 -- 251},
  year      = {2017},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ShebalinNarteauZecharetal.2014,
  author    = {Shebalin, Peter N. and Narteau, Clement and Zechar, Jeremy Douglas and Holschneider, Matthias},
  title     = {Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains},
  series = {Earth, planets and space},
  volume    = {66},
  journal   = {Earth, planets and space},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1880-5981},
  doi       = {10.1186/1880-5981-66-37},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance - in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood - than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZoellerBenZion2014,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Ben-Zion, Yehuda},
  title     = {Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data},
  series = {Pure and applied geophysics},
  volume    = {171},
  journal   = {Pure and applied geophysics},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {0033-4553},
  doi       = {10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1},
  pages     = {2955 -- 2965},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HainzlZoellerBrietzkeetal.2013,
  author    = {Hainzl, Sebastian and Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Brietzke, Gilbert B. and Hinzen, Klaus-G.},
  title     = {Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany},
  series = {Geophysical journal international},
  volume    = {195},
  journal   = {Geophysical journal international},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0956-540X},
  doi       = {10.1093/gji/ggt271},
  pages     = {684 -- 694},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results.},
  language  = {en}
}