@article{KotzWenzStechemesseretal.2021,
  author    = {Kotz, Maximilian and Wenz, Leonie and Stechemesser, Annika and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5},
  pages     = {319 -- 325},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate-economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{OttoPiontekKalkuhletal.2020,
  author    = {Otto, Christian and Piontek, Franziska and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Frieler, Katja},
  title     = {Event-based models to understand the scale of the impact of extremes},
  series = {Nature energy},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Nature energy},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2058-7546},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41560-020-0562-4},
  pages     = {111 -- 114},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Climate change entails an intensification of extreme weather events that can potentially trigger socioeconomic and energy system disruptions. As we approach 1 degrees C of global warming we should start learning from historical extremes and explicitly incorporate such events in integrated climate-economy and energy systems models.},
  language  = {en}
}