@article{EngbertRabeKliegletal.2021,
  author    = {Engbert, Ralf and Rabe, Maximilian Michael and Kliegl, Reinhold and Reich, Sebastian},
  title     = {Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics},
  series = {Bulletin of mathematical biology : official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology},
  volume    = {83},
  journal   = {Bulletin of mathematical biology : official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {0092-8240},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11538-020-00834-8},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Newly emerging pandemics like COVID-19 call for predictive models to implement precisely tuned responses to limit their deep impact on society. Standard epidemic models provide a theoretically well-founded dynamical description of disease incidence. For COVID-19 with infectiousness peaking before and at symptom onset, the SEIR model explains the hidden build-up of exposed individuals which creates challenges for containment strategies. However, spatial heterogeneity raises questions about the adequacy of modeling epidemic outbreaks on the level of a whole country. Here, we show that by applying sequential data assimilation to the stochastic SEIR epidemic model, we can capture the dynamic behavior of outbreaks on a regional level. Regional modeling, with relatively low numbers of infected and demographic noise, accounts for both spatial heterogeneity and stochasticity. Based on adapted models, short-term predictions can be achieved. Thus, with the help of these sequential data assimilation methods, more realistic epidemic models are within reach.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WiljesTong2020,
  author    = {Wiljes, Jana de and Tong, Xin T.},
  title     = {Analysis of a localised nonlinear ensemble Kalman Bucy filter with complete and accurate observations},
  series = {Nonlinearity},
  volume    = {33},
  journal   = {Nonlinearity},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {IOP Publ.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {0951-7715},
  doi       = {10.1088/1361-6544/ab8d14},
  pages     = {4752 -- 4782},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Concurrent observation technologies have made high-precision real-time data available in large quantities. Data assimilation (DA) is concerned with how to combine this data with physical models to produce accurate predictions. For spatial-temporal models, the ensemble Kalman filter with proper localisation techniques is considered to be a state-of-the-art DA methodology. This article proposes and investigates a localised ensemble Kalman Bucy filter for nonlinear models with short-range interactions. We derive dimension-independent and component-wise error bounds and show the long time path-wise error only has logarithmic dependence on the time range. The theoretical results are verified through some simple numerical tests.},
  language  = {en}
}