@article{BlaserOhrnbergerKruegeretal.2012,
  author    = {Blaser, Lilian and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Scherbaum, Frank},
  title     = {Probabilistic tsunami threat assessment of 10 recent earthquakes offshore Sumatra},
  series = {Geophysical journal international},
  volume    = {188},
  journal   = {Geophysical journal international},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Malden},
  issn      = {0956-540X},
  doi       = {10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05324.x},
  pages     = {1273 -- 1284},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Tsunami early warning (TEW) is a challenging task as a decision has to be made within few minutes on the basis of incomplete and error-prone data. Deterministic warning systems have difficulties in integrating and quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. In contrast, probabilistic approaches provide a framework that handles uncertainties in a natural way. Recently, we have proposed a method using Bayesian networks (BNs) that takes into account the uncertainties of seismic source parameter estimates in TEW. In this follow-up study, the method is applied to 10 recent large earthquakes offshore Sumatra and tested for its performance. We have evaluated both the general model performance given the best knowledge we have today about the source parameters of the 10 events and the corresponding response on seismic source information evaluated in real-time. We find that the resulting site-specific warning level probabilities represent well the available tsunami wave measurements and observations. Difficulties occur in the real-time tsunami assessment if the moment magnitude estimate is severely over- or underestimated. In general, the probabilistic analysis reveals a considerably large range of uncertainties in the near-field TEW. By quantifying the uncertainties the BN analysis provides important additional information to a decision maker in a warning centre to deal with the complexity in TEW and to reason under uncertainty.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JosephVarino2021,
  author    = {Joseph, May and Varino, Sofia},
  title     = {Multidirectional Thalassology},
  series = {Shima : the international journal of research into Island cultures / Island Cultures Research Centre (ICRC)},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Shima : the international journal of research into Island cultures / Island Cultures Research Centre (ICRC)},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {ICRC},
  address   = {Sydney},
  issn      = {1834-6049},
  doi       = {10.21463/shima.118},
  pages     = {256 -- 272},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {This article merges discourses from Indian Ocean studies, Island Studies, performance art and decolonial methodologies to offer interdisciplinary ways of thinking about La Serenissima and its navigational histories. It is a transdisciplinary speculative entry, part empirical, part analytical, part applied phenomenology. We write this as a collaboration between two members of the Harmattan Theater company, a New York City based environmental performance ensemble applying environmental theory to site-specific performances engaging oceans and islands. The article is driven by the following research questions: What are the historic relationalities between the Venice lagoon and the Indian Ocean? How has the acqua alto flooding of Venice, accompanied by the mnemonic histories of the Venetian lagoon, impacted understandings of lagoon cultures in the global South, particularly the Malabar Coast of South Asia? This question has propelled the artistic and academic research of May Joseph and Sofia Varino across environmental history, island studies and performance. Drawing on histories of Venetian navigation and lagoon culture, Joseph and Varino propose a comparative lagoon aesthetics, one that would link two archipelagic regions, the Venetian Lagoon and the extended archipelagic region of the Laccadive Sea of India. While we believe a contemporary archipelagic study connecting these two regions does not currently exist, the historical archives suggest otherwise. We draw on the Venetian Camaldolese monk and cartographer Fra Mauro's Mappa Mundi from the 15th Century to initiate this comparative dialogue between North/Southisland ecologies, seafaring histories and ocean futures affected by climate change and rising sea levels. This research is part of a book that Joseph and Varino are co-writing on islands, archipelagos, coastal regions and climate change, drawing on a ten-year collaboration working with large-scale site-specific environmental performance as research, activism and embodied phenomenology.},
  language  = {en}
}