@article{ZurellKoenigMalchowetal.2022,
  author    = {Zurell, Damaris and K{\"o}nig, Christian and Malchow, Anne-Kathleen and Kapitza, Simon and Bocedi, Greta and Travis, Justin M. J. and Fandos, Guillermo},
  title     = {Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration},
  series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos},
  journal   = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {1600-0587},
  doi       = {10.1111/ecog.05787},
  pages     = {1 -- 16},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79\%), towards the species and population level (80\%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71\%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10\% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KoenigWeigeltTayloretal.2020,
  author    = {K{\"o}nig, Christian and Weigelt, Patrick and Taylor, Amanda and Stein, Anke and Dawson, Wayne and Essl, Franz and Pergl, Jan and Pyšek, Petr and Kleunen, Mark van and Winter, Marten and Chatelain, Cyrille and Wieringa, Jan J. and Krestov, Pavel and Kreft, Holger},
  title     = {Source pools and disharmony of the world's island floras},
  series = {Ecography},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Ecography},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Oxford},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Island disharmony refers to the biased representation of higher taxa on islands compared to their mainland source regions and represents a central concept in island biology. Here, we develop a generalizable framework for approximating these source regions and conduct the first global assessment of island disharmony and its underlying drivers. We compiled vascular plant species lists for 178 oceanic islands and 735 mainland regions. Using mainland data only, we modelled species turnover as a function of environmental and geographic distance and predicted the proportion of shared species between each island and mainland region. We then quantified the over- or under-representation of families on individual islands (representational disharmony) by contrasting the observed number of species against a null model of random colonization from the mainland source pool, and analysed the effects of six family-level functional traits on the resulting measure. Furthermore, we aggregated the values of representational disharmony per island to characterize overall taxonomic bias of a given flora (compositional disharmony), and analysed this second measure as a function of four island biogeographical variables. Our results indicate considerable variation in representational disharmony both within and among plant families. Examples of generally over-represented families include Urticaceae, Convolvulaceae and almost all pteridophyte families. Other families such as Asteraceae and Orchidaceae were generally under-represented, with local peaks of over-representation in known radiation hotspots. Abiotic pollination and a lack of dispersal specialization were most strongly associated with an insular over-representation of families, whereas other family-level traits showed minor effects. With respect to compositional disharmony, large, high-elevation islands tended to have the most disharmonic floras. Our results provide important insights into the taxon- and island-specific drivers of disharmony. The proposed framework allows overcoming the limitations of previous approaches and provides a quantitative basis for incorporating functional and phylogenetic approaches into future studies of island disharmony.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LenznerMagallonDawsonetal.2020,
  author    = {Lenzner, Bernd and Magallon, Susana and Dawson, Wayne and Kreft, Holger and K{\"o}nig, Christian and Pergl, Jan and Pysek, Petr and Weigelt, Patrick and van Kleunen, Mark and Winter, Marten and Dullinger, Stefan and Essl, Franz},
  title     = {Role of diversification rates and evolutionary history as a driver of plant naturalization success},
  series = {New phytologist : international journal of plant science},
  volume    = {229},
  journal   = {New phytologist : international journal of plant science},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0028-646X},
  doi       = {10.1111/nph.17014},
  pages     = {2998 -- 3008},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Human introductions of species beyond their natural ranges and their subsequent establishment are defining features of global environmental change. However, naturalized plants are not uniformly distributed across phylogenetic lineages, with some families contributing disproportionately more to the global alien species pool than others. Additionally, lineages differ in diversification rates, and high diversification rates have been associated with characteristics that increase species naturalization success. Here, we investigate the role of diversification rates in explaining the naturalization success of angiosperm plant families. We use five global data sets that include native and alien plant species distribution, horticultural use of plants, and a time-calibrated angiosperm phylogeny. Using phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models, we analysed the effect of diversification rate, different geographical range measures, and horticultural use on the naturalization success of plant families. We show that a family's naturalization success is positively associated with its evolutionary history, native range size, and economic use. Investigating interactive effects of these predictors shows that native range size and geographic distribution additionally affect naturalization success. High diversification rates and large ranges increase naturalization success, especially of temperate families. We suggest this may result from lower ecological specialization in temperate families with large ranges, compared with tropical families with smaller ranges.},
  language  = {en}
}