@article{MtilatilaBronstertVormoor2022, author = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Vormoor, Klaus Josef}, title = {Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa}, series = {Frontiers in water}, volume = {4}, journal = {Frontiers in water}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2624-9375}, doi = {10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452}, pages = {16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50\% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388\% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.}, language = {en} } @article{AgarwalMarwanMaheswaranetal.2020, author = {Agarwal, Ankit and Marwan, Norbert and Maheswaran, Rathinasamy and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Optimal design of hydrometric station networks based on complex network analysis}, series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {24}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020}, pages = {2235 -- 2251}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure - the weighted degree-betweenness (WDB) measure - to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail.}, language = {en} } @article{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020, author = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016}, series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {24}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020}, pages = {1721 -- 1740}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.}, language = {en} } @article{WittenbergSnedeker2014, author = {Wittenberg, Eva and Snedeker, Jesse}, title = {It takes two to kiss, but does it take three to give a kiss? Categorization based on thematic roles}, series = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, volume = {29}, journal = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, number = {5}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2327-3798}, doi = {10.1080/01690965.2013.831918}, pages = {635 -- 641}, year = {2014}, language = {en} }