@article{DelgadoVossBuergeretal.2018, author = {Delgado, Jos{\´e} Miguel Martins and Voss, Sebastian and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Vormoor, Klaus Josef and Murawski, Aline and Rodrigues Pereira, Jos{\´e} Marcelo and Martins, Eduardo and Vasconcelos J{\´u}nior, Francisco and Francke, Till}, title = {Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil}, series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {22}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018}, pages = {5041 -- 5056}, year = {2018}, abstract = {A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Cear{\´a}'s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil.}, language = {en} } @article{SiegSchinkoVogeletal.2019, author = {Sieg, Tobias and Schinko, Thomas and Vogel, Kristin and Mechler, Reinhard and Merz, Bruno and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification}, series = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {14}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, number = {4}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, address = {San Francisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0212932}, pages = {21}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.}, language = {en} } @article{MaierHartungdeWiljesetal.2020, author = {Maier, Corinna and Hartung, Niklas and de Wiljes, Jana and Kloft, Charlotte and Huisinga, Wilhelm}, title = {Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy}, series = {CPT: Pharmacometrics \& Systems Pharmacology}, volume = {XX}, journal = {CPT: Pharmacometrics \& Systems Pharmacology}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2163-8306}, doi = {10.1002/psp4.12492}, pages = {12}, year = {2020}, abstract = {An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computationally efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas.}, language = {en} } @article{WestphalLazaridesVock2021, author = {Westphal, Andrea and Lazarides, Rebecca and Vock, Miriam}, title = {Are some students graded more appropriately than others?}, series = {British journal of educational psychology}, volume = {91}, journal = {British journal of educational psychology}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0007-0998}, doi = {10.1111/bjep.12397}, pages = {865 -- 881}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Background Building on the Realistic Accuracy Model, this paper explores whether it is easier for teachers to assess the achievement of some students than others. Accordingly, we suggest that certain individual characteristics of students, such as extraversion, academic self-efficacy, and conscientiousness, may guide teachers' evaluations of student achievement, resulting in more appropriate judgements and a stronger alignment of assigned grades with students' actual achievement level (as measured using standardized tests). Aims We examine whether extraversion, academic self-efficacy, and conscientiousness moderate the relations between teacher-assigned grades and students' standardized test scores in mathematics. Sample This study uses a representative sample of N = 5,919 seventh-grade students in Germany (48.8\% girls; mean age: M = 12.5, SD = 0.62) who participated in a national, large-scale assessment focusing on students' academic development. Methods We specified structural equation models to examine the inter-relations of teacher-assigned grades with students' standardized test scores in mathematics, Big Five personality traits, and academic self-efficacy, while controlling for students' socioeconomic status, gender, and age. Results The correlation between teacher-assigned grades and standardized test scores in mathematics was r = .40. Teacher-assigned grades more closely related to standardized test scores when students reported higher levels of conscientiousness (beta = .05, p = .002). Students' extraversion and academic self-efficacy did not moderate the relationship between teacher-assigned grades and standardized test scores. Conclusions Our findings indicate that students' conscientiousness is a personality trait that seems to be important when it comes to how closely mathematics teachers align their grades to standardized test scores.}, language = {en} }