@article{GengAndreevKruseetal.2022, author = {Geng, Rongwei and Andreev, Andrei and Kruse, Stefan and Heim, Birgit and van Geffen, Femke and Pestryakova, Luidmila and Zakharov, Evgenii and Troeva, Elena I. and Shevtsova, Iuliia and Li, Furong and Zhao, Yan and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Modern pollen assemblages from lake sediments and soil in East Siberia and relative pollen productivity estimates for Major Taxa}, series = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {10}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-701X}, doi = {10.3389/fevo.2022.837857}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Modern pollen-vegetation-climate relationships underpin palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate reconstructions from fossil pollen records. East Siberia is an ideal area for investigating the relationships between modern pollen assemblages and near natural vegetation under cold continental climate conditions. Reliable pollen-based quantitative vegetation and climate reconstructions are still scarce due to the limited number of modern pollen datasets. Furthermore, differences in pollen representation of samples from lake sediments and soils are not well understood. Here, we present a new pollen dataset of 48 moss/soil and 24 lake surface-sediment samples collected in Chukotka and central Yakutia in East Siberia. The pollen-vegetation-climate relationships were investigated by ordination analyses. Generally, tundra and taiga vegetation types can be well distinguished in the surface pollen assemblages. Moss/soil and lake samples contain generally similar pollen assemblages as revealed by a Procrustes comparison with some exceptions. Overall, modern pollen assemblages reflect the temperature and precipitation gradients in the study areas as revealed by constrained ordination analysis. We estimate the relative pollen productivity (RPP) of major taxa and the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) for moss/soil samples from Chukotka and central Yakutia using Extended R-Value (ERV) analysis. The RSAP of the tundra-forest transition area in Chukotka and taiga area in central Yakutia are ca. 1300 and 360 m, respectively. For Chukotka, RPPs relative to both Poaceae and Ericaceae were estimated while RPPs for central Yakutia were relative only to Ericaceae. Relative to Ericaceae (reference taxon, RPP = 1), Larix, Betula, Picea, and Pinus are overrepresented while Alnus, Cyperaceae, Poaceae, and Salix are underrepresented in the pollen spectra. Our estimates are in general agreement with previously published values and provide the basis for reliable quantitative reconstructions of East Siberian vegetation.}, language = {en} } @article{LiTianRudayaetal.2022, author = {Li, Wenjia and Tian, Fang and Rudaya, Natalya A. and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Cao, Xianyong}, title = {Pollen-based holocene thawing-history of permafrost in Northern Asia and its potential impacts on climate change}, series = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {10}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-701X}, doi = {10.3389/fevo.2022.894471}, pages = {13}, year = {2022}, abstract = {As the recent permafrost thawing of northern Asia proceeds due to anthropogenic climate change, precise and detailed palaeoecological records from past warm periods are essential to anticipate the extent of future permafrost variations. Here, based on the modern relationship between permafrost and vegetation (represented by pollen assemblages), we trained a Random Forest model using pollen and permafrost data and verified its reliability to reconstruct the history of permafrost in northern Asia during the Holocene. An early Holocene (12-8 cal ka BP) strong thawing trend, a middle-to-late Holocene (8-2 cal ka BP) relatively slow thawing trend, and a late Holocene freezing trend of permafrost in northern Asia are consistent with climatic proxies such as summer solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. The extensive distribution of permafrost in northern Asia inhibited the spread of evergreen coniferous trees during the early Holocene warming and might have decelerated the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by altering hydrological processes and albedo. Based on these findings, we suggest that studies of the EASM should consider more the state of permafrost and vegetation in northern Asia, which are often overlooked and may have a profound impact on climate change in this region.}, language = {en} } @article{OeztuerkBozzolanHolcombeetal.2022, author = {{\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Bozzolan, Elisa and Holcombe, Elizabeth A. and Shukla, Roopam and Pianosi, Francesca and Wagener, Thorsten}, title = {How climate change and unplanned urban sprawl bring more landslides}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {608}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7922}, publisher = {Nature portfolio}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-02141-9}, pages = {262 -- 265}, year = {2022}, abstract = {More settlements will suffer as heavy rains and unregulated construction destabilize slopes in the tropics, models show.}, language = {en} } @article{SongJieGaoetal.2022, author = {Song, Lina and Jie, Dongmei and Gao, Guizai and Liu, Lidan and Liu, Hongyan and Li, Dehui and Liu, Ying}, title = {Application of a topsoil phytolith dataset to quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction in Northeast China}, series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, volume = {601}, journal = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0031-0182}, doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2022.111108}, pages = {12}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Although phytoliths are recognized as an important proxy for paleoenvironmental reconstruction, the quantitative relationship between phytoliths and climate is still debated. In order to provide an improved basis for phytolith-based paleoclimate reconstructions, a representative modern phytolith dataset is essential. Here, we synthesize a modern topsoil phytolith dataset for Northeast China, analyze its climatic significance, and apply it to a fossil phytolith series from the Hani peat core in Northeast China. The dataset comprises 660 topsoil phytolith assemblages from 289 sample sites. We compiled modern meteorological data to assess the quantitative relationship between the phytolith assemblages and climatic variables. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and Redundancy analysis (RDA) were used to determine the dominant climatic variable influencing the phytolith distributions. The results showed that mean annual temperature (MAT) is the dominant variable controlling the spatial distribution of phytoliths, accounting for 8.91\% of the total variance. Transfer function based on inverse deshrinking locally-weighted weighted averaging (LWWA_Inv) was developed for MAT (R-_boot(2) = 0.86, RMSEP = 1.02 degrees C). Applying the LWWA_Inv transfer function to fossil phytolith records from the Hani peat core enables quantitative inferences to be made about Holocene climate changes in Northeast China. Overall, combined with the LWWA_Inv method, the topsoil phytolith dataset of Northeast China can be used for reliable quantitative MAT reconstruction.}, language = {en} } @article{SteirouGerlitzSunetal.2022, author = {Steirou, Eva and Gerlitz, Lars and Sun, Xun and Apel, Heiko and Agarwal, Ankit and Totz, Sonja Juliana and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, journal = {Scientific reports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Nature portfolio}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1}, pages = {10}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead.}, language = {en} } @article{AstudilloSotomayorJaraMunozMelnicketal.2021, author = {Astudillo-Sotomayor, Luis and Jara Mu{\~n}oz, Julius and Melnick, Daniel and Cort{\´e}s-Aranda, Joaqu{\´i}n and Tassara, Andr{\´e}s and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Fast Holocene slip and localized strain along the Liqui{\~n}e-Ofqui strike-slip fault system, Chile}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, journal = {Scientific reports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-021-85036-5}, pages = {10}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In active tectonic settings dominated by strike-slip kinematics, slip partitioning across subparallel faults is a common feature; therefore, assessing the degree of partitioning and strain localization is paramount for seismic hazard assessments. Here, we estimate a slip rate of 18.8 +/- 2.0 mm/year over the past 9.0 +/- 0.1 ka for a single strand of the Liquirie-Ofqui Fault System, which straddles the Main Cordillera in Southern Chile. This Holocene rate accounts for similar to 82\% of the trench-parallel component of oblique plate convergence and is similar to million-year estimates integrated over the entire fault system. Our results imply that strain localizes on a single fault at millennial time scale but over longer time scales strain localization is not sustained. The fast millennial slip rate in the absence of historical Mw> 6.5 earthquakes along the Liquine-Ofqui Fault System implies either a component of aseismic slip or Mw similar to 7 earthquakes involving multi-trace ruptures and > 150-year repeat times. Our results have implications for the understanding of strike-slip fault system dynamics within volcanic arcs and seismic hazard assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{VehLuetzowKharlamovaetal.2022, author = {Veh, Georg and L{\"u}tzow, Natalie and Kharlamova, Varvara and Petrakov, Dmitry and Hugonnet, Romain and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Trends, breaks, and biases in the frequency of reported glacier lake outburst floods}, series = {Earth's future}, volume = {10}, journal = {Earth's future}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2021EF002426}, pages = {14}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains following glacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sediment with disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production, or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largest global catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We find that the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s, coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual number of field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glacier surveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone can thus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lake formation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysis emphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to four out of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend that such biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs to atmospheric warming.}, language = {en} } @article{LopezCominoCescaNiemzetal.2021, author = {L{\´o}pez-Comino, Jos{\´e} {\´A}ngel and Cesca, Simone and Niemz, Peter and Dahm, Torsten and Zang, Arno}, title = {Rupture directivity in 3D inferred from acoustic emissions events in a mine-scale hydraulic fracturing experiment}, series = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {9}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2021.670757}, pages = {9}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Rupture directivity, implying a predominant earthquake rupture propagation direction, is typically inferred upon the identification of 2D azimuthal patterns of seismic observations for weak to large earthquakes using surface-monitoring networks. However, the recent increase of 3D monitoring networks deployed in the shallow subsurface and underground laboratories toward the monitoring of microseismicity allows to extend the directivity analysis to 3D modeling, beyond the usual range of magnitudes. The high-quality full waveforms recorded for the largest, decimeter-scale acoustic emission (AE) events during a meter-scale hydraulic fracturing experiment in granites at similar to 410 m depth allow us to resolve the apparent durations observed at each AE sensor to analyze 3D-directivity effects. Unilateral and (asymmetric) bilateral ruptures are then characterized by the introduction of a parameter kappa, representing the angle between the directivity vector and the station vector. While the cloud of AE activity indicates the planes of the hydrofractures, the resolved directivity vectors show off-plane orientations, indicating that rupture planes of microfractures on a scale of centimeters have different geometries. Our results reveal a general alignment of the rupture directivity with the orientation of the minimum horizontal stress, implying that not only the slip direction but also the fracture growth produced by the fluid injections is controlled by the local stress conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{EsfahaniGholamiOhrnberger2020, author = {Esfahani, Reza Dokht Dolatabadi and Gholami, Ali and Ohrnberger, Matthias}, title = {An inexact augmented Lagrangian method for nonlinear dispersion-curve inversion using Dix-type global linear approximation}, series = {Geophysics : a journal of general and applied geophysics}, volume = {85}, journal = {Geophysics : a journal of general and applied geophysics}, number = {3}, publisher = {GeoScienceWorld}, address = {Tulsa, Okla.}, issn = {0016-8033}, doi = {10.1190/geo2019-0717.1}, pages = {EN77 -- EN85}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Dispersion-curve inversion of Rayleigh waves to infer subsurface shear-wave velocity is a long-standing problem in seismology. Due to nonlinearity and ill-posedness, sophisticated regularization techniques are required to solve the problem for a stable velocity model. We have formulated the problem as a minimization problem with nonlinear operator constraint and then solve it by using an inexact augmented Lagrangian method, taking advantage of the Haney-Tsai Dix-type relation (a global linear approximation of the nonlinear forward operator). This replaces the original regularized nonlinear problem with iterative minimization of a more tractable regularized linear problem followed by a nonlinear update of the phase velocity (data) in which the update can be performed accurately with any forward modeling engine, for example, the finite-element method. The algorithm allows discretizing the medium with thin layers (for the finite-element method) and thus omitting the layer thicknesses from the unknowns and also allows incorporating arbitrary regularizations to shape the desired velocity model. In this research, we use total variation regularization to retrieve the shear-wave velocity model. We use two synthetic and two real data examples to illustrate the performance of the inversion algorithm with total variation regularization. We find that the method is fast and stable, and it converges to the solution of the original nonlinear problem.}, language = {en} } @article{SpallanzaniKogaCichyetal.2022, author = {Spallanzani, Roberta and Koga, Kenneth T. and Cichy, Sarah B. and Wiedenbeck, Michael and Schmidt, Burkhard C. and Oelze, Marcus and Wilke, Max}, title = {Lithium and boron diffusivity and isotopic fractionation in hydrated rhyolitic melts}, series = {Contributions to mineralogy and petrology}, volume = {177}, journal = {Contributions to mineralogy and petrology}, number = {8}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0010-7999}, doi = {10.1007/s00410-022-01937-2}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Lithium and boron are trace components of magmas, released during exsolution of a gas phase during volcanic activity. In this study, we determine the diffusivity and isotopic fractionation of Li and B in hydrous silicate melts. Two glasses were synthesized with the same rhyolitic composition (4.2 wt\% water), having different Li and B contents; these were studied in diffusion-couple experiments that were performed using an internally heated pressure vessel, operated at 300 MPa in the temperature range 700-1250 degrees C for durations from 0 s to 24 h. From this we determined activation energies for Li and B diffusion of 57 +/- 4 kJ/mol and 152 +/- 15 kJ/mol with pre-exponential factors of 1.53 x 10(-7) m(2)/s and 3.80 x 10(-8) m(2)/s, respectively. Lithium isotopic fractionation during diffusion gave beta values between 0.15 and 0.20, whereas B showed no clear isotopic fractionation. Our Li diffusivities and isotopic fractionation results differ somewhat from earlier published values, but overall confirm that Li diffusivity increases with water content. Our results on B diffusion show that similarly to Li, B mobility increases in the presence of water. By applying the Eyring relation, we confirm that B diffusivity is limited by viscous flow in silicate melts. Our results on Li and B diffusion present a new tool for understanding degassing-related processes, offering a potential geospeedometer to measure volcanic ascent rates.}, language = {en} }