@article{vonSpechtOeztuerkVehetal.2019, author = {von Specht, Sebastian and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Veh, Georg and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {10}, journal = {Solid earth}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-10-463-2019}, pages = {463 -- 486}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.}, language = {en} } @article{VehLuetzowKharlamovaetal.2022, author = {Veh, Georg and L{\"u}tzow, Natalie and Kharlamova, Varvara and Petrakov, Dmitry and Hugonnet, Romain and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods}, series = {Earth's Future}, volume = {10}, journal = {Earth's Future}, edition = {3}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken, New Jersey, United States}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2021EF002426}, pages = {1 -- 14}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains following glacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sediment with disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production, or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largest global catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We find that the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s, coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual number of field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glacier surveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone can thus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lake formation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysis emphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to four out of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend that such biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs to atmospheric warming.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupWalz2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, volume = {117}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, number = {2}, publisher = {National Academy of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914898117}, pages = {907 -- 912}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95\% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {5}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5}, pages = {379 -- 383}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupRoessneretal.2018, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Roessner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Detecting Himalayan glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat time series}, series = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {207}, journal = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {New York}, issn = {0034-4257}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025}, pages = {84 -- 97}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91\%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10\% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades.}, language = {en} } @article{FischerKorupVehetal.2021, author = {Fischer, Melanie and Korup, Oliver and Veh, Georg and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region}, series = {The Cryosphere}, volume = {15}, journal = {The Cryosphere}, publisher = {Copernicus Publications}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021}, pages = {19}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.}, language = {en} } @article{DietzeSlowinskiZawiskaetal.2016, author = {Dietze, Elisabeth and Slowinski, Michal and Zawiska, Izabela and Veh, Georg and Brauer, Achim}, title = {Multiple drivers of Holocene lake level changes at a lowland lake in northeastern Germany}, series = {Boreas}, volume = {45}, journal = {Boreas}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0300-9483}, doi = {10.1111/bor.12190}, pages = {828 -- 845}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Many German lakes experienced significant water level declines in recent decades that are not fully understood due to the short observation period. At a typical northeastern German groundwater-fed lake with a complex basin morphology, an acoustic sub-bottom profile was analysed together with a transect of five sediment cores, which were correlated using multiple proxies (sediment facies, -XRF, macrofossils, subfossil Cladocera). Shifts in the boundary between sand and mud deposition were controlled by lake level changes, and hence, allowed the quantification of an absolute lake level amplitude of similar to 8m for the Holocene. This clearly exceeded observed modern fluctuations of 1.3m (AD 1973-2010). Past lake level changes were traced continuously using the calcium-record. During high lake levels, massive organic muds were deposited in the deepest lake basin, whereas lower lake levels isolated the sub-basins and allowed carbonate deposition. During the beginning of the Holocene (>9700cal. a BP), lake levels were high, probably due to final melting of permafrost and dead-ice remains. The establishment of water-use intensive Pinus forests caused generally low (3-4m below modern) but fluctuating lake levels (9700-6400cal. a BP). Afterwards, the lake showed an increasing trend and reached a short-term highstand at c.5000cal. a BP (4m above modern). At the transition towards a cooler and wetter late Holocene, forests dominated by Quercus and Fagus and initial human impact probably contributed more positively to groundwater recharge. Lake levels remained high between 3800 and 800cal. a BP, but the lake system was not sensitive enough to record short-term fluctuations during this period. Lake level changes were recorded again when humans profoundly affected the drainage system, land cover and lake trophy. Hence, local Holocene water level changes reflect feedbacks between catchment and vegetation characteristics and human impact superimposed by climate change at multiple temporal scales.}, language = {en} }