@article{DuethmannBolchFarinottietal.2015,
  author    = {Duethmann, Doris and Bolch, Tobias and Farinotti, Daniel and Kriegel, David and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno and Pieczonka, Tino and Jiang, Tong and Su, Buda and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas},
  title     = {Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia},
  series = {Water resources research},
  volume    = {51},
  journal   = {Water resources research},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0043-1397},
  doi       = {10.1002/2014WR016716},
  pages     = {4727 -- 4750},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30\% over the period 1957-2004. This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Duethmann2015,
  author    = {D{\"u}thmann, Doris},
  title     = {Hydrological modeling of mountain catchments in Central Asia},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-80071},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XVI, 95},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Water resources from Central Asia's mountain regions have a high relevance for the water supply of the water scarce lowlands. A good understanding of the water cycle in these mountain regions is therefore needed to develop water management strategies. Hydrological modeling helps to improve our knowledge of the regional water cycle, and it can be used to gain a better understanding of past changes or estimate future hydrologic changes in view of projected changes in climate. However, due to the scarcity of hydrometeorological data, hydrological modeling for mountain regions in Central Asia involves large uncertainties. Addressing this problem, the first aim of this thesis was to develop hydrological modeling approaches that can increase the credibility of hydrological models in data sparse mountain regions. This was achieved by using additional data from remote sensing and atmospheric modeling. It was investigated whether spatial patterns from downscaled reanalysis data can be used for the interpolation of station-based precipitation data. This approach was compared to other precipitation estimates using a hydrologic evaluation based on hydrological modeling and a comparison of simulated and observed discharge, which demonstrated a generally good performance of this method. The study further investigated the value of satellite-derived snow cover data for model calibration. Trade-offs of good model performance in terms of discharge and snow cover were explicitly evaluated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm, and the results were contrasted with single-objective calibration and Monte Carlo simulations. The study clearly shows that the additional use of snow cover data improved the internal consistency of the hydrological model. In this context, it was further investigated for the first time how many snow cover scenes were required for hydrological model calibration. The second aim of this thesis was the application of the hydrological model in order to investigate the causes of observed streamflow increases in two headwater catchments of the Tarim River over the recent decades. This simulation-based approach for trend attribution was complemented by a data-based approach. The hydrological model was calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance data and considered changes in glacier geometry over time. The results show that in the catchment with a lower glacierization, increasing precipitation and temperature both contributed to the streamflow increases, while in the catchment with a stronger glacierization, increasing temperatures were identified as the dominant driver.},
  language  = {en}
}