@article{BubeckBotzenLaudanetal.2018,
  author    = {Bubeck, Philip and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Laudan, Jonas and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory},
  series = {Risk analysis},
  volume    = {38},
  journal   = {Risk analysis},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0272-4332},
  doi       = {10.1111/risa.12938},
  pages     = {1239 -- 1257},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals' coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{ThiekenDierckDunstetal.2018,
  author    = {Thieken, Annegret and Dierck, Julia and Dunst, Lea and G{\"o}pfert, Christian and Heidenreich, Anna and Hetz, Karen and Kern, Julia and Kern, Kristine and Lipp, Torsten and Lippert, Cordine and Meves, Monika and Niederhafner, Stefan and Otto, Antje and Rohrbacher, Christian and Schmidt, Katja and Strate, Leander and Stumpp, Inga and Walz, Ariane},
  title     = {Urbane Resilienz gegen{\"u}ber extremen Wetterereignissen - Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großst{\"a}dten und Mittelst{\"a}dten (ExTrass)},
  organization    = {Leibniz-Institut f{\"u}r Raumbezogene Sozialforschung, adelphi research gGmbH},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416067},
  pages     = {102},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Weltweit verursachen St{\"a}dte etwa 70 \% der Treibhausgasemissionen und sind daher wichtige Akteure im Klimaschutz bzw. eine wichtige Zielgruppe von Klimapolitiken. Gleichzeitig sind St{\"a}dte besonders stark von m{\"o}glichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels betroffen: Insbesondere extreme Wetterereignisse wie Hitzewellen oder Starkregenereignisse mit {\"U}berflutungen verursachen in St{\"a}dten hohe Sachsch{\"a}den und wirken sich negativ auf die Gesundheit der st{\"a}dtischen Bev{\"o}lkerung aus. Daher verfolgt das Projekt ExTrass das Ziel, die st{\"a}dtische Resilienz gegen{\"u}ber extremen Wetterereignissen in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Stadtverwaltungen, Strukturen des Bev{\"o}lkerungsschutzes und der Zivilgesellschaft zu st{\"a}rken. Im Fokus stehen dabei (kreisfreie) Groß- und Mittelst{\"a}dte mit 50.000 bis 500.000 Einwohnern, insbesondere die Fallstudienst{\"a}dte Potsdam, Remscheid und W{\"u}rzburg. Der vorliegende Bericht beinhaltet die Ergebnisse der 14-monatigen Definitionsphase von ExTrass, in der vor allem die Abstimmung eines Arbeitsprogramms im Mittelpunkt stand, das in einem nachfolgenden dreij{\"a}hrigen Forschungsprojekt (F+E-Phase) gemeinsam von Wissenschaft und Praxispartnern umgesetzt werden soll. Begleitend wurde eine Bestandsaufnahme von Klimaanpassungs- und Klimaschutzstrategien/-pl{\"a}nen in 99 deutschen Groß- und Mittelst{\"a}dten vorgenommen. Zudem wurden f{\"u}r Potsdam und W{\"u}rzburg Pfadanalysen f{\"u}r die Klimapolitik durchgef{\"u}hrt. Darin wird insbesondere die Bedeutung von Schl{\"u}sselakteuren deutlich. Weiterhin wurden im Rahmen von Stakeholder-Workshops Anpassungsherausforderungen und aktuelle Handlungsbedarfe in den Fallstudienst{\"a}dten identifiziert und L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze erarbeitet, die in der F+E-Phase entwickelt und getestet werden sollen. Neben Maßnahmen auf gesamtst{\"a}dtischer Ebene und auf Stadtteilebene wurden Maßnahmen angestrebt, die die Risikowahrnehmung, Vorsorge und Selbsthilfef{\"a}higkeit von Unternehmen und Bev{\"o}lkerung st{\"a}rken k{\"o}nnen. Daher wurde der Stand der Risikokommunikation in Deutschland f{\"u}r das Projekt aufgearbeitet und eine erste Evaluation von Risikokommunikationswerkzeugen durchgef{\"u}hrt. Der Bericht endet mit einer Kurzfassung des Arbeitsprogramms 2018-2021.},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{McDowellKause2021,
  author    = {McDowell, Michelle and Kause, Astrid},
  title     = {Communicating uncertainties about the effects of medical interventions using different display formats},
  series = {Risk analysis : an international journal},
  volume    = {41},
  journal   = {Risk analysis : an international journal},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0272-4332},
  doi       = {10.1111/risa.13739},
  pages     = {2220 -- 2239},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Communicating uncertainties in scientific evidence is important to accurately reflect scientific knowledge , increase public understanding of uncertainty, and to signal transparency and honesty in reporting. While techniques have been developed to facilitate the communication of uncertainty, many have not been empirically tested, compared for communicating different types of uncertainty, or their effects on different cognitive, trust, and behavioral outcomes have not been evaluated. The present study examined how a point estimate, imprecise estimate, conflicting estimates, or a statement about the lack of evidence about treatment effects, influenced participant's responses to communications about medical evidence. For each type of uncertainty, we adapted three display formats to communicate the information: tables, bar graphs, and icon arrays. We compared participant's best estimates of treatment effects, as well as effects on recall, subjective evaluations (understandability and usefuleness), certainty perceptions, perceptions of trustworthiness of the information, and behavioral intentions. We did not find any detrimental effects from communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to a point estimate across any outcome. Furthermore, there were more favorable responses to communicating imprecision or conflicting estimates relative to lack of evidence, where participants estimated the treatment would improve outcomes by 30-50\% relative to a placebo. There were no differences across display formats, suggesting that, if well-designed, it may not matter which format is used. Future research on specific display formats or uncertainty types and with larger sample sizes would be needed to detect small effects. Implications for the communication of uncertainty are discussed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{ThiekenOttoHauptetal.2022,
  author    = {Thieken, Annegret and Otto, Antje and Haupt, Wolfgang and Eckersley, Peter and Kern, Kristine and Ullrich, Susann and Hautz, Timo and Rocker, Philipp and Schulz, Rabea and Sausen, Hannah and Dillenardt, Lisa and Rose, Claudia and Schmidt, Katja and Huber, Bettina and Sterzel, Till and Marken, Marieke and Miechielsen, Milena},
  title     = {Urbane Resilienz gegen{\"u}ber extremen Wetterereignissen},
  editor    = {Otto, Antje and Thieken, Annegret},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55542},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-555427},
  pages     = {IX, 99},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Aufgrund der hohen Konzentration von Bev{\"o}lkerung, {\"o}konomischen Werten und Infrastrukturen k{\"o}nnen St{\"a}dte stark von extremen Wetterereignissen getroffen werden. Insbesondere Hitzewellen und {\"U}berflutungen in Folge von Starkregen verursachen in St{\"a}dten immense gesundheitliche und finanzielle Sch{\"a}den. Um Sch{\"a}den zu verringern oder gar zu vermeiden, ist es notwendig, entsprechende Vorsorge- und Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen zu implementieren. Im Projekt „Urbane Resilienz gegen{\"u}ber extremen Wetterereignissen - Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großst{\"a}dten und Mittelst{\"a}dten" (ExTrass) lag der Fokus auf den beiden extremen Wetterereignissen Hitze und Starkregen sowie auf kleineren Großst{\"a}dten (100.000 bis 500.000 Einwohner:innen) und kreisfreien Mittelst{\"a}dten mit mehr als 50.000 Einwohner:innen. Im Projekt wurde die St{\"a}rkung der Klimaresilienz als Verbesserung der F{\"a}higkeiten von St{\"a}dten, aus vergangenen Ereignissen zu lernen sowie sich an antizipierte Gefahren anzupassen, verstanden. Klimaanpassung wurde demnach als ein Prozess aufgefasst, der durch die Umsetzung von potenziell schadensreduzierenden Maßnahmen beschreib- und operationalisierbar wird. Das Projekt hatte zwei Ziele: Erstens sollte die Klimaresilienz in den drei Fallstudienst{\"a}dten Potsdam, Remscheid und W{\"u}rzburg messbar gest{\"a}rkt werden. Zweitens sollten Transferpotenziale zwischen Groß- und Mittelst{\"a}dten in Deutschland identifiziert und besser nutzbar gemacht werden, damit die Wirkung von Pilotvorhaben {\"u}ber die direkt involvierten St{\"a}dte hinausgehen kann. Im Projekt standen folgende vier Leitfragen im Fokus: • Wie verbreitet sind Klimaanpassungsaktivit{\"a}ten in Großst{\"a}dten und gr{\"o}ßeren kreisfreien Mittelst{\"a}dten in Deutschland? • Welche hemmenden und beg{\"u}nstigenden Faktoren beeinflussen die Klimaanpassung? • Welche Maßnahmen der Klimaanpassung werden tats{\"a}chlich umgesetzt, und wie kann die Umsetzung verbessert werden? Was behindert? • Inwiefern lassen sich Beispiele guter Praxis auf andere St{\"a}dte {\"u}bertragen, adaptieren oder weiterentwickeln? Die Hauptergebnisse zu diesen Fragestellungen sind im vorliegenden Bericht zusammengefasst.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{GomezZapata2023,
  author    = {G{\´o}mez Zapata, Juan Camilo},
  title     = {Towards unifying approaches in exposure modelling for scenario-based multi-hazard risk assessments},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58614},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586140},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {iii, xiii, 155},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {This cumulative thesis presents a stepwise investigation of the exposure modelling process for risk assessment due to natural hazards while highlighting its, to date, not much-discussed importance and associated uncertainties. Although "exposure" refers to a very broad concept of everything (and everyone) that is susceptible to damage, in this thesis it is narrowed down to the modelling of large-area residential building stocks. Classical building exposure models for risk applications have been constructed fully relying on unverified expert elicitation over data sources (e.g., outdated census datasets), and hence have been implicitly assumed to be static in time and in space. Moreover, their spatial representation has also typically been simplified by geographically aggregating the inferred composition onto coarse administrative units whose boundaries do not always capture the spatial variability of the hazard intensities required for accurate risk assessments. These two shortcomings and the related epistemic uncertainties embedded within exposure models are tackled in the first three chapters of the thesis. The exposure composition of large-area residential building stocks is studied on the scope of scenario-based earthquake loss models. Then, the proposal of optimal spatial aggregation areas of exposure models for various hazard-related vulnerabilities is presented, focusing on ground-shaking and tsunami risks. Subsequently, once the experience is gained in the study of the composition and spatial aggregation of exposure for various hazards, this thesis moves towards a multi-hazard context while addressing cumulative damage and losses due to consecutive hazard scenarios. This is achieved by proposing a novel method to account for the pre-existing damage descriptions on building portfolios as a key input to account for scenario-based multi-risk assessment. Finally, this thesis shows how the integration of the aforementioned elements can be used in risk communication practices. This is done through a modular architecture based on the exploration of quantitative risk scenarios that are contrasted with social risk perceptions of the directly exposed communities to natural hazards. In Chapter 1, a Bayesian approach is proposed to update the prior assumptions on such composition (i.e., proportions per building typology). This is achieved by integrating high-quality real observations and then capturing the intrinsic probabilistic nature of the exposure model. Such observations are accounted as real evidence from both: field inspections (Chapter 2) and freely available data sources to update existing (but outdated) exposure models (Chapter 3). In these two chapters, earthquake scenarios with parametrised ground motion fields were transversally used to investigate the role of such epistemic uncertainties related to the exposure composition through sensitivity analyses. Parametrised scenarios of seismic ground shaking were the hazard input utilised to study the physical vulnerability of building portfolios. The second issue that was investigated, which refers to the spatial aggregation of building exposure models, was investigated within two decoupled vulnerability contexts: due to seismic ground shaking through the integration of remote sensing techniques (Chapter 3); and within a multi-hazard context by integrating the occurrence of associated tsunamis (Chapter 4). Therein, a careful selection of the spatial aggregation entities while pursuing computational efficiency and accuracy in the risk estimates due to such independent hazard scenarios (i.e., earthquake and tsunami) are discussed. Therefore, in this thesis, the physical vulnerability of large-area building portfolios due to tsunamis is considered through two main frames: considering and disregarding the interaction at the vulnerability level, through consecutive and decoupled hazard scenarios respectively, which were then contrasted. Contrary to Chapter 4, where no cumulative damages are addressed, in Chapter 5, data and approaches, which were already generated in former sections, are integrated with a novel modular method to ultimately study the likely interactions at the vulnerability level on building portfolios. This is tested by evaluating cumulative damages and losses after earthquakes with increasing magnitude followed by their respective tsunamis. Such a novel method is grounded on the possibility of re-using existing fragility models within a probabilistic framework. The same approach is followed in Chapter 6 to forecast the likely cumulative damages to be experienced by a building stock located in a volcanic multi-hazard setting (ash-fall and lahars). In that section, special focus was made on the manner the forecasted loss metrics are communicated to locally exposed communities. Co-existing quantitative scientific approaches (i.e., comprehensive exposure models; explorative risk scenarios involving single and multiple hazards) and semi-qualitative social risk perception (i.e., level of understanding that the exposed communities have about their own risk) were jointly considered. Such an integration ultimately allowed this thesis to also contribute to enhancing preparedness, science divulgation at the local level as well as technology transfer initiatives. Finally, a synthesis of this thesis along with some perspectives for improvement and future work are presented.},
  language  = {en}
}