@misc{MooijTrolleJeppesenetal.2010, author = {Mooij, Wolf M. and Trolle, Dennis and Jeppesen, Erik and Arhonditsis, George B. and Belolipetsky, Pavel V. and Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. and Degermendzhy, Andrey G. and DeAngelis, Donald L. and Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Fragoso Jr., Carlos Ruberto and Gaedke, Ursula and Genova, Svetlana N. and Gulati, Ramesh D. and H{\aa}kanson, Lars and Hamilton, David P. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and 't Hoen, Jochem and H{\"u}lsmann, Stephan and Los, F. Hans and Makler-Pick, Vardit and Petzoldt, Thomas and Prokopkin, Igor G. and Rinke, Karsten and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Tominaga, Koji and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Nes, Egbert H. and Wells, Scott A. and Janse, Jan H.}, title = {Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1326}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42983}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429839}, pages = {35}, year = {2010}, abstract = {A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.}, language = {en} } @article{MooijTrolleJeppesenetal.2010, author = {Mooij, Wolf M. and Trolle, Dennis and Jeppesen, Erik and Arhonditsis, George B. and Belolipetsky, Pavel V. and Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. and Degermendzhy, Andrey G. and DeAngelis, Donald L. and Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Fragoso Jr, Carlos Ruberto and Gaedke, Ursula and Genova, Svetlana N. and Gulati, Ramesh D. and H{\aa}kanson, Lars and Hamilton, David P. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and 't Hoen, Jochem and H{\"u}lsmann, Stephan and Los, F. Hans and Makler-Pick, Vardit and Petzoldt, Thomas and Prokopkin, Igor G. and Rinke, Karsten and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Tominaga, Koji and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Nes, Egbert H. and Wells, Scott A. and Janse, Jan H.}, title = {Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches}, series = {Aquatic ecology}, volume = {44}, journal = {Aquatic ecology}, publisher = {Springer Science + Business Media B.V.}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1573-5125}, doi = {10.1007/s10452-010-9339-3}, pages = {633 -- 667}, year = {2010}, abstract = {A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.}, language = {en} } @misc{Frauenstein2017, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Frauenstein, Andrea}, title = {Erarbeitung einer P-Bilanz im Rahmen eines Konzeptes zur Sanierung und Restaurierung des Rangsdorfer Sees}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42876}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-428760}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {XIV, 152}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Der Rangsdorfer See (A = 2,44 km² , z(max) = 6 m, z(mean) = 1,930 m) im Landkreis Teltow Fl{\"a}ming ist einer von vielen Gew{\"a}ssern in Brandenburg, die derzeit den nach EU-Wasserrahmenrichtlinie geforderten guten Zustand nicht erreichen. Bekanntlich gilt Phosphor f{\"u}r viele Gew{\"a}sser als der bedeutendste produktionslimitierende N{\"a}hrstoff und ist somit aussichtsreicher Steuerfaktor f{\"u}r eine erfolgreiche Seentherapie. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, die Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te des Rangsdorfer Sees nach trophischen Aspekten zu bewerten, Phosphor-Eintragspfade zu identifizieren, welche die h{\"o}chsten Frachten verursachen sowie Therapiemaßnahmen zu finden, die eine langfristige Zustandsverbesserung erm{\"o}glichen. In einer Szenarioanalyse wurde das modifizierte Einbox Modell angewendet, um die Wirksamkeit externer und interner Therapiemaßnahmen abzusch{\"a}tzen. Nach Abschluss der Studienarbeiten k{\"o}nnen folgende Schl{\"u}sse gezogen werden: Der Rangsdorfer See ist aufgrund seiner Morphometrie ein naturgegebenes n{\"a}hrstoffreiches Gew{\"a}sser und war das auch schon, bevor anthropogene Einfl{\"u}sse auf ihn einwirkten. Langj{\"a}hrige N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}ge verschiedener Herkunft (Abwassereinleitungen, Fischintensivhaltung, Rieselfelder) f{\"u}hrten jedoch zu einer {\"u}berm{\"a}ßigen Produktivit{\"a}t. Viele Belastungsquellen wurden ausgeschaltet, es findet jedoch immer noch ein relevanter N{\"a}hrstoffaustrag aus dem Einzugsgebiet statt. Unter Verwendung von Phosphor-Bilanzmodellen und seetypspezifischen kritischen Phosphor-Seekonzentrationen zeigt sich, dass die aktuell stattfindende externe Phosphor-Belastung den kritischen Phosphor-Eintrag zur mutmaßlichen Erreichung des guten {\"o}kologischen Zustandes {\"u}berschreitet. Anteilig die gr{\"o}ßte Fracht wird {\"u}ber den nat{\"u}rlichen Hauptzufluss in den Rangsdorfer See transportiert. Sanierungsmaßnahmen in dessen Einzugsgebiet stellen ein effektives Mittel dar. Eine technische L{\"o}sung zur N{\"a}hrstoffminderung im Zufluss (Eliminierungsanlage) kann unterst{\"u}tzend eingesetzt werden, muss aber dann bei unver{\"a}nderter hoher Phosphor-Konzentration im Zufluss dauerhaft betrieben werden. Das Einbox Modell stellte sich als hilfreiches Instrument zur Vorauswahl geeigneter Therapiemaßnahmen heraus.}, language = {de} } @article{CoelhoHeimFoersteretal.2017, author = {Coelho, Christine and Heim, Birgit and F{\"o}rster, Saskia and Brosinsky, Arlena and de Araujo, Jose Carlos}, title = {In Situ and Satellite Observation of CDOM and Chlorophyll-a Dynamics in Small Water Surface Reservoirs in the Brazilian Semiarid Region}, series = {Water}, volume = {9}, journal = {Water}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2073-4441}, doi = {10.3390/w9120913}, pages = {22}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We analyzed chlorophyll-a and Colored Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) dynamics from field measurements and assessed the potential of multispectral satellite data for retrieving water-quality parameters in three small surface reservoirs in the Brazilian semiarid region. More specifically, this work is comprised of: (i) analysis of Chl-a and trophic dynamics; (ii) characterization of CDOM; (iii) estimation of Chl-a and CDOM from OLI/Landsat-8 and RapidEye imagery. The monitoring lasted 20 months within a multi-year drought, which contributed to water-quality deterioration. Chl-a and trophic state analysis showed a highly eutrophic status for the perennial reservoir during the entire study period, while the non-perennial reservoirs ranged from oligotrophic to eutrophic, with changes associated with the first events of the rainy season. CDOM characterization suggests that the perennial reservoir is mostly influenced by autochthonous sources, while allochthonous sources dominate the non-perennial ones. Spectral-group classification assigned the perennial reservoir as a CDOM-moderate and highly eutrophic reservoir, whereas the non-perennial ones were assigned as CDOM-rich and oligotrophic-dystrophic reservoirs. The remote sensing initiative was partially successful: the Chl-a was best modelled using RapidEye for the perennial one; whereas CDOM performed best with Landsat-8 for non-perennial reservoirs. This investigation showed potential for retrieving water quality parameters in dry areas with small reservoirs.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Crawford2020, author = {Crawford, Michael Scott}, title = {Using individual-based modeling to understand grassland diversity and resilience in the Anthropocene}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47941}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-479414}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {174}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The world's grassland systems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic change. Susceptible to a variety of different stressors, from land-use intensification to climate change, understanding the mechanisms driving the maintenance of these systems' biodiversity and stability, and how these mechanisms may shift under human-mediated disturbance, is thus critical for successfully navigating the next century. Within this dissertation, I use an individual-based and spatially-explicit model of grassland community assembly (IBC-grass) to examine several processes, thought key to understanding their biodiversity and stability and how it changes under stress. In the first chapter of my thesis, I examine the conditions under which intraspecific trait variation influences the diversity of simulated grassland communities. In the second and third chapters of my thesis, I shift focus towards understanding how belowground herbivores influence the stability of these grassland systems to either a disturbance that results in increased, stochastic, plant mortality, or eutrophication. Intraspecific trait variation (ITV), or variation in trait values between individuals of the same species, is fundamental to the structure of ecological communities. However, because it has historically been difficult to incorporate into theoretical and statistical models, it has remained largely overlooked in community-level analyses. This reality is quickly shifting, however, as a consensus of research suggests that it may compose a sizeable proportion of the total variation within an ecological community and that it may play a critical role in determining if species coexist. Despite this increasing awareness that ITV matters, there is little consensus of the magnitude and direction of its influence. Therefore, to better understand how ITV changes the assembly of grassland communities, in the first chapter of my thesis, I incorporate it into an established, individual-based grassland community model, simulating both pairwise invasion experiments as well as the assembly of communities with varying initial diversities. By varying the amount of ITV in these species' functional traits, I examine the magnitude and direction of ITV's influence on pairwise invasibility and community coexistence. During pairwise invasion, ITV enables the weakest species to more frequently invade the competitively superior species, however, this influence does not generally scale to the community level. Indeed, unless the community has low alpha- and beta- diversity, there will be little effect of ITV in bolstering diversity. In these situations, since the trait axis is sparsely filled, the competitively inferior may suffer less competition and therefore ITV may buffer the persistence and abundance of these species for some time. In the second and third chapters of my thesis, I model how one of the most ubiquitous trophic interactions within grasslands, herbivory belowground, influences their diversity and stability. Until recently, the fundamental difficulty in studying a process within the soil has left belowground herbivory "out of sight, out of mind." This dilemma presents an opportunity for simulation models to explore how this understudied process may alter community dynamics. In the second chapter of my thesis, I implement belowground herbivory - represented by the weekly removal of plant biomass - into IBC-grass. Then, by introducing a pulse disturbance, modelled as the stochastic mortality of some percentage of the plant community, I observe how the presence of belowground herbivores influences the resistance and recovery of Shannon diversity in these communities. I find that high resource, low diversity, communities are significantly more destabilized by the presence of belowground herbivores after disturbance. Depending on the timing of the disturbance and whether the grassland's seed bank persists for more than one season, the impact of the disturbance - and subsequently the influence of the herbivores - can be greatly reduced. However, because human-mediated eutrophication increases the amount of resources in the soil, thus pressuring grassland systems, our results suggest that the influence of these herbivores may become more important over time. In the third chapter of my thesis, I delve further into understanding the mechanistic underpinnings of belowground herbivores on the diversity of grasslands by replicating an empirical mesocosm experiment that crosses the presence of herbivores above- and below-ground with eutrophication. I show that while aboveground herbivory, as predicted by theory and frequently observed in experiments, mitigates the impact of eutrophication on species diversity, belowground herbivores counterintuitively reduce biodiversity. Indeed, this influence positively interacts with the eutrophication process, amplifying its negative impact on diversity. I discovered the mechanism underlying this surprising pattern to be that, as the herbivores consume roots, they increase the proportion of root resources to root biomass. Because root competition is often symmetric, herbivory fails to mitigate any asymmetries in the plants' competitive dynamics. However, since the remaining roots have more abundant access to resources, the plants' competition shifts aboveground, towards asymmetric competition for light. This leads the community towards a low-diversity state, composed of mostly high-performance, large plant species. We further argue that this pattern will emerge unless the plants' root competition is asymmetric, in which case, like its counterpart aboveground, belowground herbivory may buffer diversity by reducing this asymmetry between the competitively superior and inferior plants. I conclude my dissertation by discussing the implications of my research on the state of the art in intraspecific trait variation and belowground herbivory, with emphasis on the necessity of more diverse theory development in the study of these fundamental interactions. My results suggest that the influence of these processes on the biodiversity and stability of grassland systems is underappreciated and multidimensional, and must be thoroughly explored if researchers wish to predict how the world's grasslands will respond to anthropogenic change. Further, should researchers myopically focus on understanding central ecological interactions through only mathematically tractable analyses, they may miss entire suites of potential coexistence mechanisms that can increase the coviability of species, potentially leading to coexistence over ecologically-significant timespans. Individual-based modelling, therefore, with its focus on individual interactions, will prove a critical tool in the coming decades for understanding how local interactions scale to larger contexts, and how these interactions shape ecological communities and further predicting how these systems will change under human-mediated stress.}, language = {en} } @article{GuentherSchmidtQuittetal.2021, author = {G{\"u}nther, Kerstin and Schmidt, Marcus and Quitt, Heinz and Heinken, Thilo}, title = {Ver{\"a}nderungen der Waldvegetation im Elbe-Havelwinkel von 1960 bis 2015}, series = {Tuexenia : Mitteilungen der Floristisch-Soziologischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft}, journal = {Tuexenia : Mitteilungen der Floristisch-Soziologischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft}, number = {41}, publisher = {Floristisch-Soziologische Arbeitsgemeinschaft}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {0722-494X}, doi = {10.14471/2021.41.005}, pages = {53 -- 85}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Forest ecosystems are subject to a variety of influences such as forest management, nitrogen deposition, changes in the groundwater level or the immigration of invasive species. The repetition of historical releves is an important means of documenting the resulting changes in plant communities and determining their main drivers. In 2015, we examined the vegetation change in 140 semi-permanent plots in managed forests in the Elbe valley in the NE German lowlands (Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg). The first survey took place from 1956 to 1963. The releves cover an almost uniquely broad spectrum of different site conditions, ranging from wet forests (alluvial, swamp and bog forests of Alnion incanae, Alnion glutinosae and Betulion pubescentis) to acidic mixed oak forests (Quercion roboris) up to acidic, mostly dry pine forests with different nutrient status (Dicrano-Pinion). We analyzed the changes in the vegetation with the help of forest stand data, winner and loser species, alpha- and beta-diversity as well as the Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen, reaction, moisture and light. In contrast to previous resurvey studies, areas were also taken into account on which a complete change of forest stand had taken place before the second survey. Particularly in the wet forests and acidic forests with a moderately good nutrient supply, changes in the main tree species have been recorded, and many pine stands have been newly established in the meantime. The species richness has decreased overall and in almost all forest types, but the beta-diversity has remained unchanged or has increased. The Ellenberg values indicate a decrease in soil moisture in the wet forests, while the acidic pine forests in particular have become darker, richer in nutrients and more humid. The number of loser species is more than twice as high as that of the winner species, but with different developments in the individual forest types. In particular, the wet forests, the acidic mixed oak forests and the lichen-pine forests have lost most of their characteristic species. The resurvey after more than 50 years shows a different development of the individual forest types. Vegetation changes in the wet forests are mainly due to local groundwater level drawdown and the resulting increased availability of nutrients. The alluvial forests were also strongly influenced by forest interventions. The reasons for the trend towards more humid and more nutrient-rich conditions in formerly dry acidic pine and oak forests are nitrogen depositions and a succession after the abandonment of historical forms of forest use (litter raking, forest pasture). Although the individual forest types have developed differently, eutrophication, falling groundwater levels and silviculture are the most important causes for the changes in vegetation. Silvicultural interventions such as clear cutting and stand conversion with a change of tree species are at the same time the main reason why the vegetation has not been homogenized despite the leveling of the site gradient as measured by the beta-diversity.}, language = {de} } @article{KongGhaffarDetermannetal.2022, author = {Kong, Xiangzhen and Ghaffar, Salman and Determann, Maria and Friese, Kurt and Jomaa, Seifeddine and Mi, Chenxi and Shatwell, Tom and Rinke, Karsten and Rode, Michael}, title = {Reservoir water quality deterioration due to deforestation emphasizes the indirect effects of global change}, series = {Water research : a journal of the International Association on Water Quality (IAWQ)}, volume = {221}, journal = {Water research : a journal of the International Association on Water Quality (IAWQ)}, publisher = {Elsevier Science}, address = {Amsterdam [u.a.]}, issn = {0043-1354}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.118721}, pages = {12}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Deforestation is currently a widespread phenomenon and a growing environmental concern in the era of rapid climate change. In temperate regions, it is challenging to quantify the impacts of deforestation on the catchment dynamics and downstream aquatic ecosystems such as reservoirs and disentangle these from direct climate change impacts, let alone project future changes to inform management. Here, we tackled this issue by investigating a unique catchment-reservoir system with two reservoirs in distinct trophic states (meso- and eutrophic), both of which drain into the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany. Due to the prolonged droughts in 2015-2018, the catchment of the mesotrophic reservoir lost an unprecedented area of forest (exponential increase since 2015 and ca. 17.1\% loss in 2020 alone). We coupled catchment nutrient exports (HYPE) and reservoir ecosystem dynamics (GOTM-WET) models using a process-based modeling approach. The coupled model was validated with datasets spanning periods of rapid deforestation, which makes our future projections highly robust. Results show that in a short-term time scale (by 2035), increasing nutrient flux from the catchment due to vast deforestation (80\% loss) can turn the mesotrophic reservoir into a eutrophic state as its counterpart. Our results emphasize the more prominent impacts of deforestation than the direct impact of climate warming in impairment of water quality and ecological services to downstream aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to evaluate the impact of climate change on temperate reservoirs by incorporating a time scale-dependent context, highlighting the indirect impact of deforestation in the short-term scale. In the long-term scale (e.g. to 2100), a guiding hypothesis for future research may be that indirect effects (e.g., as mediated by catchment dynamics) are as important as the direct effects of climate warming on aquatic ecosystems.}, language = {en} }