@misc{WinklerHeinken2007, author = {Winkler, Eckart and Heinken, Thilo}, title = {Spread of an ant-dispersed annual herb : an individual-based simulation study on population development of Melampyrum pratense L.}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-46491}, year = {2007}, abstract = {The paper presents a simulation and parameter-estimation approach for evaluating stochastic patterns of population growth and spread of an annual forest herb, Melampyrum pratense (Orobanchaceae). The survival of a species during large-scale changes in land use and climate will depend, to a considerable extent, on its dispersal and colonisation abilities. Predictions on species migration need a combination of field studies and modelling efforts. Our study on the ability of M. pratense to disperse into so far unoccupied areas was based on experiments in secondary woodland in NE Germany. Experiments started in 1997 at three sites where the species was not yet present, with 300 seeds sown within one square meter. Population development was then recorded until 2001 by mapping of individuals with a resolution of 5 cm. Additional observations considered density dependence of seed production. We designed a spatially explicit individual-based computer simulation model to explain the spatial patterns of population development and to predict future population spread. Besides primary drop of seeds (barochory) it assumed secondary seed transport by ants (myrmecochory) with an exponentially decreasing dispersal tail. An important feature of populationpattern explanation was the simultaneous estimation of both population-growth and dispersal parameters from consistent spatio-temporal data sets. As the simulation model produced stochastic time series and random spatially discrete distributions of individuals we estimated parameters by minimising the expectation of weighted sums of squares. These sums-ofsquares criteria considered population sizes, radial population distributions around the area of origin and distributions of individuals within squares of 25*25 cm, the range of density action. Optimal parameter values, together with the precision of the estimates, were obtained from calculating sums of squares in regular grids of parameter values. Our modelling results showed that transport of fractions of seeds by ants over distances of 1…2 m was indispensable for explaining the observed population spread that led to distances of at most 8 m from population origin within 3 years. Projections of population development over 4 additional years gave a diffusion-like increase of population area without any "outposts". This prediction generated by the simulation model gave a hypothesis which should be revised by additional field observations. Some structural deviations between observations and model output already indicated that for full understanding of population spread the set of dispersal mechanisms assumed in the model may have to be extended by additional features of plant-animal mutualism.}, language = {en} } @article{WangWhiteGrimmetal.2018, author = {Wang, Ming and White, Neil and Grimm, Volker and Hofman, Helen and Doley, David and Thorp, Grant and Cribb, Bronwen and Wherritt, Ella and Han, Liqi and Wilkie, John and Hanan, Jim}, title = {Pattern-oriented modelling as a novel way to verify and validate functional-structural plant models}, series = {Annals of botany}, volume = {121}, journal = {Annals of botany}, number = {5}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0305-7364}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcx187}, pages = {941 -- 959}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Background and Aims Functional-structural plant (FSP) models have been widely used to understand the complex interactions between plant architecture and underlying developmental mechanisms. However, to obtain evidence that a model captures these mechanisms correctly, a clear distinction must be made between model outputs used for calibration and thus verification, and outputs used for validation. In pattern-oriented modelling (POM), multiple verification patterns are used as filters for rejecting unrealistic model structures and parameter combinations, while a second, independent set of patterns is used for validation. Key Results After calibration, our model simultaneously reproduced multiple observed architectural patterns. The model then successfully predicted, without further calibration, the validation patterns. The model supports the hypothesis that carbon allocation can be modelled as being dependent on current organ biomass and sink strength of each organ type, and also predicted the observed developmental timing of the leaf sink-source transition stage.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{RomeroMujalli2019, author = {Romero Mujalli, Daniel}, title = {Ecological modeling of adaptive evolutionary responses to rapid climate change}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43062}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-430627}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {167}, year = {2019}, abstract = {A contemporary challenge in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology is to anticipate the fate of populations of organisms in the context of a changing world. Climate change and landscape changes due to anthropic activities have been of major concern in the contemporary history. Organisms facing these threats are expected to respond by local adaptation (i.e., genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity) or by shifting their distributional range (migration). However, there are limits to their responses. For example, isolated populations will have more difficulties in developing adaptive innovations by means of genetic changes than interconnected metapopulations. Similarly, the topography of the environment can limit dispersal opportunities for crawling organisms as compared to those that rely on wind. Thus, populations of species with different life history strategy may differ in their ability to cope with changing environmental conditions. However, depending on the taxon, empirical studies investigating organisms' responses to environmental change may become too complex, long and expensive; plus, complications arising from dealing with endangered species. In consequence, eco-evolutionary modeling offers an opportunity to overcome these limitations and complement empirical studies, understand the action and limitations of underlying mechanisms, and project into possible future scenarios. In this work I take a modeling approach and investigate the effect and relative importance of evolutionary mechanisms (including phenotypic plasticity) on the ability for local adaptation of populations with different life strategy experiencing climate change scenarios. For this, I performed a review on the state of the art of eco-evolutionary Individual-Based Models (IBMs) and identify gaps for future research. Then, I used the results from the review to develop an eco-evolutionary individual-based modeling tool to study the role of genetic and plastic mechanisms in promoting local adaption of populations of organisms with different life strategies experiencing scenarios of climate change and environmental stochasticity. The environment was simulated through a climate variable (e.g., temperature) defining a phenotypic optimum moving at a given rate of change. The rate of change was changed to simulate different scenarios of climate change (no change, slow, medium, rapid climate change). Several scenarios of stochastic noise color resembling different climatic conditions were explored. Results show that populations of sexual species will rely mainly on standing genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity for local adaptation. Population of species with relatively slow growth rate (e.g., large mammals) - especially those of small size - are the most vulnerable, particularly if their plasticity is limited (i.e., specialist species). In addition, whenever organisms from these populations are capable of adaptive plasticity, they can buffer fitness losses in reddish climatic conditions. Likewise, whenever they can adjust their plastic response (e.g., bed-hedging strategy) they will cope with bluish environmental conditions as well. In contrast, life strategies of high fecundity can rely on non-adaptive plasticity for their local adaptation to novel environmental conditions, unless the rate of change is too rapid. A recommended management measure is to guarantee interconnection of isolated populations into metapopulations, such that the supply of useful genetic variation can be increased, and, at the same time, provide them with movement opportunities to follow their preferred niche, when local adaptation becomes problematic. This is particularly important for bluish and reddish climatic conditions, when the rate of change is slow, or for any climatic condition when the level of stress (rate of change) is relatively high.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukDeLaenderCabraletal.2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and De Laender, Frederik and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Crawford, Michael Scott and Bohn, Friedrich and De Raedt, Jonathan and Scherer, Cedric and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Thonicke, Kirsten and Schurr, Frank M. and Grimm, Volker and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie}, title = {The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type}, series = {Ecology letters}, volume = {22}, journal = {Ecology letters}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1461-023X}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13226}, pages = {674 -- 684}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ecosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensional assessments are still to be recommended.}, language = {en} } @article{MillesDammhahnGrimm2020, author = {Milles, Alexander and Dammhahn, Melanie and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Intraspecific trait variation in personality-related movement behavior promotes coexistence}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {129}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.07431}, pages = {1441 -- 1454}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Movement behavior is an essential element of fundamental ecological processes such as competition and predation. Although intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in movement behaviors is pervasive, its consequences for ecological community dynamics are still not fully understood. Using a newly developed individual-based model, we analyzed how given and constant ITVs in foraging movement affect differences in foraging efficiencies between species competing for common resources under various resource distributions. Further, we analyzed how the effect of ITV on emerging differences in competitive abilities ultimately affects species coexistence. The model is generic but mimics observed patterns of among-individual covariation between personality, movement and space use in ground-dwelling rodents. Interacting species differed in their mean behavioral types along a slow-fast continuum, integrating consistent individual variation in average behavioral expression and responsiveness (i.e. behavioral reaction norms). We found that ITV reduced interspecific differences in competitive abilities by 5-35\% and thereby promoted coexistence via an equalizing mechanism. The emergent relationships between behavioral types and foraging efficiency are characteristic for specific environmental contexts of resource distribution and population density. As these relationships are asymmetric, species that were either 'too fast' or 'too slow' benefited differently from ITV. Thus, ITV in movement behavior has consequences for species coexistence but to predict its effect in a given system requires intimate knowledge on how variation in movement traits relates to fitness components along an environmental gradient.}, language = {en} } @article{MartinJagerNisbetetal.2013, author = {Martin, Benjamin T. and Jager, Tjalling and Nisbet, Roger M. and Preuss, Thomas G. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals - a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory}, series = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, volume = {181}, journal = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Univ. of Chicago Press}, address = {Chicago}, issn = {0003-0147}, doi = {10.1086/669904}, pages = {506 -- 519}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small-and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmBergerBastiansenetal.2006, author = {Grimm, Volker and Berger, Uta and Bastiansen, Finn and Eliassen, Sigrunn and Ginot, Vincent and Giske, Jarl and Goss-Custard, John and Grand, Tamara and Heinz, Simone K. and Huse, Geir and Huth, Andreas and Jepsen, Jane U. and Jorgensen, Christian and Mooij, Wolf M. and Mueller, Birgit and Piou, Cyril and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Robbins, Andrew M. and Robbins, Martha M. and Rossmanith, Eva and Rueger, Nadja and Strand, Espen and Souissi, Sami and Stillman, Richard A. and Vabo, Rune and Visser, Ute and DeAngelis, Donald L.}, title = {A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {198}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023}, pages = {115 -- 126}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Simulation models that describe autonomous individual organisms (individual based models, IBM) or agents (agent-based models, ABM) have become a widely used tool, not only in ecology, but also in many other disciplines dealing with complex systems made up of autonomous entities. However, there is no standard protocol for describing such simulation models, which can make them difficult to understand and to duplicate. This paper presents a proposed standard protocol, ODD, for describing IBMs and ABMs, developed and tested by 28 modellers who cover a wide range of fields within ecology. This protocol consists of three blocks (Overview, Design concepts, and Details), which are subdivided into seven elements: Purpose, State variables and scales, Process overview and scheduling, Design concepts, Initialization, Input, and Submodels. We explain which aspects of a model should be described in each element, and we present an example to illustrate the protocol in use. In addition, 19 examples are available in an Online Appendix. We consider ODD as a first step for establishing a more detailed common format of the description of IBMs and ABMs. Once initiated, the protocol will hopefully evolve as it becomes used by a sufficiently large proportion of modellers. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{DalleauKramerSchadtGangatetal.2019, author = {Dalleau, Mayeul and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Gangat, Yassine and Bourjea, Jerome and Lajoie, Gilles and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Modeling the emergence of migratory corridors and foraging hot spots of the green sea turtle}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {18}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5552}, pages = {10317 -- 10342}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Environmental factors shape the spatial distribution and dynamics of populations. Understanding how these factors interact with movement behavior is critical for efficient conservation, in particular for migratory species. Adult female green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, migrate between foraging and nesting sites that are generally separated by thousands of kilometers. As an emblematic endangered species, green turtles have been intensively studied, with a focus on nesting, migration, and foraging. Nevertheless, few attempts integrated these behaviors and their trade-offs by considering the spatial configurations of foraging and nesting grounds as well as environmental heterogeneity like oceanic currents and food distribution. We developed an individual-based model to investigate the impact of local environmental conditions on emerging migratory corridors and reproductive output and to thereby identify conservation priority sites. The model integrates movement, nesting, and foraging behavior. Despite being largely conceptual, the model captured realistic movement patterns which confirm field studies. The spatial distribution of migratory corridors and foraging hot spots was mostly constrained by features of the regional landscape, such as nesting site locations, distribution of feeding patches, and oceanic currents. These constraints also explained the mixing patterns in regional forager communities. By implementing alternative decision strategies of the turtles, we found that foraging site fidelity and nesting investment, two characteristics of green turtles' biology, are favorable strategies under unpredictable environmental conditions affecting their habitats. Based on our results, we propose specific guidelines for the regional conservation of green turtles as well as future research suggestions advancing spatial ecology of sea turtles. Being implemented in an easy to learn open-source software, our model can coevolve with the collection and analysis of new data on energy budget and movement into a generic tool for sea turtle research and conservation. Our modeling approach could also be useful for supporting the conservation of other migratory marine animals.}, language = {en} } @article{CrawfordJeltschMayetal.2018, author = {Crawford, Michael and Jeltsch, Florian and May, Felix and Grimm, Volker and Schl{\"a}gel, Ulrike E.}, title = {Intraspecific trait variation increases species diversity in a trait-based grassland model}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {128}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.05567}, pages = {441 -- 455}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Intraspecific trait variation (ITV) is thought to play a significant role in community assembly, but the magnitude and direction of its influence are not well understood. Although it may be critical to better explain population persistence, species interactions, and therefore biodiversity patterns, manipulating ITV in experiments is challenging. We therefore incorporated ITV into a trait- and individual-based model of grassland community assembly by adding variation to the plants' functional traits, which then drive life-history tradeoffs. Varying the amount of ITV in the simulation, we examine its influence on pairwise-coexistence and then on the species diversity in communities of different initial sizes. We find that ITV increases the ability of the weakest species to invade most, but that this effect does not scale to the community level, where the primary effect of ITV is to increase the persistence and abundance of the competitively-average species. Diversity of the initial community is also of critical importance in determining ITV's efficacy; above a threshold of interspecific diversity, ITV does not increase diversity further. For communities below this threshold, ITV mainly helps to increase diversity in those communities that would otherwise be low-diversity. These findings suggest that ITV actively maintains diversity by helping the species on the margins of persistence, but mostly in habitats of relatively low alpha and beta diversity.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Buchmann2012, author = {Buchmann, Carsten M.}, title = {Modelling the structuring of animal communities in heterogeneous landscapes : the role of individual home range formation, foraging movement, competition and habitat configuration}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-59031}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2012}, abstract = {This thesis aims at a better mechanistic understanding of animal communities. Therefore, an allometry- and individual-based model has been developed which was used to simulate mammal and bird communities in heterogeneous landscapes, and to to better understand their response to landscape changes (habitat loss and fragmentation).}, language = {en} }