@unpublished{Sprinz2012, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F.}, title = {Long-Term environmental policy challenges for research}, series = {The journal of environment \& development : a review of international policy}, volume = {21}, journal = {The journal of environment \& development : a review of international policy}, number = {1}, publisher = {Sage Publ.}, address = {Thousand Oaks}, issn = {1070-4965}, doi = {10.1177/1070496511435667}, pages = {67 -- 70}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Long-term policy issues are a particularly vexing class of environmental policy issues which merit increasing attention due to the long-time horizons involved, the incongruity with political cycles, and the challenges for collective action. Following the definition of long-term environmental policy challenges, I pose three questions as challenges for future research, namely 1. Are present democracies well suited to cope with long-term policy challenges? 2. Are top-down or bottom-up solutions to long-term environmental policy challenges advisable? 3. Will mitigation and adaptation of environmental challenges suffice? In concluding, the contribution raises the issue of credible commitment for long-term policy issues and potential design options.}, language = {en} } @article{Sprinz2000, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F.}, title = {Problems of cross-level inference in political science}, year = {2000}, abstract = {Political Science research encounters inferences across levels of analysis; however, they are fraught with challenges. After introducing voting examples of aggregation bias, problems posed by aggregation bias are summarized more generally. Subsequently, the article reviews the major methodological approaches to overcome aggregation bias and to solve the ecological inference (disaggregation) problem. The article highlights the possibility that aggregation bias may lead governments to accept (or reject) international climate agreements when negotiating as blocs of countries as compared to the distribution of the preferences of all countries involved in the negotiations.}, language = {en} } @article{Sprinz2014, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F.}, title = {Long-term policy problems: definition, origins, and redponses}, series = {Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics}, journal = {Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics}, publisher = {Elgar}, address = {Northampton}, isbn = {978-1-78347-186-7}, pages = {126 -- 143}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @misc{Sprinz2017, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F.}, title = {Long-term environmental policy}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403193}, pages = {4}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Long-term policy issues are a particularly vexing class of environmental policy issues which merit increasing attention due to the long-time horizons involved, the incongruity with political cycles, and the challenges for collective action. Following the definition of long-term environmental policy challenges, I pose three questions as challenges for future research, namely 1. Are present democracies well suited to cope with long-term policy challenges? 2. Are top-down or bottom-up solutions to long-term environmental policy challenges advisable? 3. Will mitigation and adaptation of environmental challenges suffice? In concluding, the contribution raises the issue of credible commitment for long-term policy issues and potential design options.}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzBangBrueckneretal.2018, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and Bang, Guri and Brueckner, Lars and Kameyama, Yasuko}, title = {Major Countries}, series = {Global climate policy: actors, concepts, and enduring challenges}, journal = {Global climate policy: actors, concepts, and enduring challenges}, editor = {Luterbacher, Urs and Sprinz, Detlef F.}, publisher = {MIT Press}, address = {Cambridge}, isbn = {978-0-262-53534-2}, pages = {171 -- 216}, year = {2018}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzdeMesquitaKallbekkenetal.2016, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Kallbekken, Steffen and Stokman, Frans and Saelen, Hakon and Thomson, Robert}, title = {Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations}, series = {Politics and Governance}, volume = {4}, journal = {Politics and Governance}, publisher = {Cogitatio Press}, address = {Lisbon}, issn = {2183-2463}, doi = {10.17645/pag.v4i3.654}, pages = {172 -- 187}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world's leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer's Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzShreejayaPrasad2020, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and Shreejaya, Shradha and Prasad, Devi K. V.}, title = {Predicting Climate Policy Choices}, series = {Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift f{\"u}r Harald Fuhr}, journal = {Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift f{\"u}r Harald Fuhr}, publisher = {Nomos}, address = {Baden-Baden}, pages = {207 -- 218}, year = {2020}, language = {de} } @article{SprinzvonBuenau2013, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and von Buenau, Steffen}, title = {The Compensation Fund for Climate Impacts}, series = {WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY}, volume = {5}, journal = {WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY}, number = {3}, publisher = {AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC}, address = {BOSTON}, issn = {1948-8327}, doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00010.1}, pages = {210 -- 220}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Climate change is very likely to lead to undesirable climate impacts. How to compensate for such negative impacts at the international level has, hitherto, received little attention. This article reviews the most frequently discussed grounds for legal obligations of states vis-a-vis climate impacts (damages) and concludes that no convincing mechanism has yet been found to compensate climate impacts. The authors outline an architecture for a voluntary, international compensation fund with specialized, independent climate courts. Subsequently, this article addresses three strategic considerations related to the fund, namely, the incentives for founding it, the merits of double proportionality with respect to contributions and payments, as well as the benefits of employing prediction markets to enhance trustworthiness.}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzWahl2000, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and Wahl, Andreas}, title = {Reversing (Inter)national policy : Germany{\"i}s response to transboundary air pollution}, year = {2000}, abstract = {Perhaps like no other country, Germany has radically changed its policies towards regulating air pollution in the European context. Acting originally as a dragger in the 1970s to regulate transboundary air pollutants due to pessimism about the relationship between causes and effects, Germany responded very decisively to its own damage assessment in the early 1980s. In particular the adverse effects to forests (Waldsterben" or forest decline) led to the formulation of strict air pollution regulations in the domestic context, efforts to spread the regulatory system within the European Union, and activities within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe to foster stronger, continent-wide emission reductions. Using three conceptual models (rational actor, domestic politics, and social learning), we show that Germany deviated strongly from the ideal policy cycle consisting of (i) domestic policy formulation, (ii) international negotiations, as well as (iii) implementation and compliance with the provisions of international environmental agreements. Both national policy-making as well as partial implementation have been well on the way towards compliance even before Germany entered international negotiations on substantive protocols. Therefore, one may conclude from this country study that push countries may use the results of their national policy processes to influence the policy of other countries.}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzWolinskyNahmias2004, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and Wolinsky-Nahmias, Yael}, title = {Introduction : Methodology in international relations research}, isbn = {0-472-06861-X}, year = {2004}, language = {en} }