@misc{BubeckAertsdeMoeletal.2016, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and de Moel, Hans and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Preface}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {609}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41238}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412387}, pages = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {kein abstract}, language = {en} } @misc{BubeckAertsdeMoeletal.2016, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and de Moel, Hans and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Preface: Flood-risk analysis and integrated management}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {16}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016}, pages = {1005 -- 1010}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckBerghaeuserHudsonetal.2020, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Bergh{\"a}user, Lisa and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Using panel data to understand the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding}, series = {Risk analysis : an international journal}, volume = {40}, journal = {Risk analysis : an international journal}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0272-4332}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13548}, pages = {2340 -- 2359}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents' perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckBotzenLaudanetal.2018, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Laudan, Jonas and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory}, series = {Risk analysis}, volume = {38}, journal = {Risk analysis}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0272-4332}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12938}, pages = {1239 -- 1257}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals' coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckDillenardtAlfierietal.2019, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Dillenardt, Lisa and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Feyen, Luc and Thieken, Annegret and Kellermann, Patric}, title = {Global warming to increase flood risk on European railways}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {155}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02434-5}, pages = {19 -- 36}, year = {2019}, abstract = {For effective disaster risk management and adaptation planning, a good understanding of current and projected flood risk is required. Recent advances in quantifying flood risk at the regional and global scale have largely neglected critical infrastructure, or addressed this important sector with insufficient detail. Here, we present the first European-wide assessment of current and future flood risk to railway tracks for different global warming scenarios using an infrastructure-specific damage model. We find that the present risk, measured as expected annual damage, to railway networks in Europe is approx. (sic)581 million per year, with the highest risk relative to the length of the network in North Macedonia, Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and Germany. Based on an ensemble of climate projections for RCP8.5, we show that current risk to railway networks is projected to increase by 255\% under a 1.5 degrees C, by 281\% under a 2 degrees C, and by 310\% under a 3 degrees C warming scenario. The largest increases in risk under a 3 degrees C scenario are projected for Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, and Belgium. Our advances in the projection of flood risk to railway infrastructure are important given their criticality, and because losses to public infrastructure are usually not insured or even uninsurable in the private market. To cover the risk increase due to climate change, European member states would need to increase expenditure in transport by (sic)1.22 billion annually under a 3 degrees C warming scenario without further adaptation. Limiting global warming to the 1.5 degrees C goal of the Paris Agreement would result in avoided losses of (sic)317 million annually.}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckKreibichPenningRowselletal.2017, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Kreibich, Heidi and Penning-Rowsell, E. C. and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and de Moel, H. and Klijn, F.}, title = {Explaining differences in flood management approaches in Europe and in the USA - a comparative analysis}, series = {Journal of flood risk management}, volume = {10}, journal = {Journal of flood risk management}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1753-318X}, doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12151}, pages = {436 -- 445}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Flood risk management in Europe and worldwide is not static but constantly in a state of flux. There has been a trend towards more integrated flood risk management in many countries. However, the initial situation and the pace and direction of change is very different in the various countries. In this paper, we will present a conceptual framework that seeks to explain why countries opt for different flood risk management portfolios. The developed framework utilises insights from a range of policy science concepts in an integrated way and considers, among others, factors such as geographical characteristics, the experience with flood disasters, as well as human behavioural aspects.}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckThieken2017, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {What helps people recover from floods?}, series = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {18}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1436-3798}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y}, pages = {287 -- 296}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods.}, language = {en} } @article{DiBaldassarreKreibichVorogushynetal.2018, author = {Di Baldassarre, Giuliano and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Aerts, Jeroen and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten and Barendrecht, Marlies and Bates, Paul and Borga, Marco and Botzen, Wouter and Bubeck, Philip and De Marchi, Bruna and Llasat, Carmen Maria and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Molinari, Daniela and Mondino, Elena and Mard, Johanna and Petrucci, Olga and Scolobig, Anna and Viglione, Alberto and Ward, Philip J.}, title = {Hess Opinions: An interdisciplinary research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, volume = {22}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, number = {11}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018}, pages = {5629 -- 5637}, year = {2018}, abstract = {One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as "levee effect", "safe development paradox" or "safety dilemma". In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk.}, language = {en} } @article{DoThiChinhBubeckNguyenVietDungetal.2016, author = {Do Thi Chinh, and Bubeck, Philip and Nguyen Viet Dung, and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses}, series = {Disasters : the journal of disaster studies, policy and management}, volume = {40}, journal = {Disasters : the journal of disaster studies, policy and management}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0361-3666}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12171}, pages = {753 -- 778}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face-to-face interviews among flood-prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses.}, language = {en} } @article{HagedoornBubeckHudsonetal.2021, author = {Hagedoorn, Liselotte and Bubeck, Philip and Hudson, Paul and Brander, Luke and Pham Thi Dieu, My and Lasage, Ralph}, title = {Preferences of vulnerable social groups for ecosystem-based adaptation to flood risk in Central Vietnam}, series = {World development : the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development}, volume = {148}, journal = {World development : the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0305-750X}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105650}, pages = {24}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Developing countries are increasingly impacted by floods, especially in Asia. Traditional flood risk man-agement, using structural measures such as levees, can have negative impacts on the livelihoods of social groups that are more vulnerable. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) provides a complementary approach that is potentially more inclusive of groups that are commonly described as more vulnerable, such as the poor and women. However, there is a lack of disaggregated and quantitative information on the potential of EbA to support vulnerable groups of society. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the differ-ences in vulnerability to flooding as well as preferences for EbA benefits across income groups and gen -der. We use data collected through a survey of households in urban and rural Central Vietnam which included a discrete choice experiment on preferences for ecosystem services. A total of 1,010 households was surveyed during 2017 through a random sampling approach. Preferences are measured in monetary and non-monetary terms to avoid issues that may arise from financial constraints faced by respondents and especially the more vulnerable groups. Our results reveal that lower income households and women are overall more vulnerable than their counterparts and have stronger preferences for the majority of the EbA benefits, including flood protection, seafood abundance, tourism, and recreation suitability. These findings strongly indicate that EbA is indeed a promising tool to support groups of society that are espe-cially vulnerable to floods. These results provide crucial insights for future implementation of EbA pro-jects and for the integration of EbA with goals targeted at complying with the Sendai Framework and Sustainable Development Goals. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).}, language = {en} }