@article{ZhelayskayaVasileShpritsetal.2019,
  author    = {Zhelayskaya, Irina S. and Vasile, Ruggero and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Stolle, Claudia and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Systematic Analysis of Machine Learning and Feature Selection Techniques for Prediction of the Kp Index},
  series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications},
  volume    = {17},
  journal   = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {1542-7390},
  doi       = {10.1029/2019SW002271},
  pages     = {1461 -- 1486},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The Kp index is a measure of the midlatitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short-term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hr. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals, and show how this selection can affect model performance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{KayhanWagnerMeyerO’Reillyetal.2019,
  author    = {Kayhan Wagner, Ezgi and Meyer, Marlene and O'Reilly, J.X. and Hunnius, Sabine and Bekkering, Harold},
  title     = {Nine-month-old infants update their predictive models of a changing environment},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {577},
  issn      = {1866-8364},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43784},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-437844},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Humans generate internal models of their environment to predict events in the world. As the environments change, our brains adjust to these changes by updating their internal models. Here, we investigated whether and how 9-month-old infants differentially update their models to represent a dynamic environment. Infants observed a predictable sequence of stimuli, which were interrupted by two types of cues. Following the update cue, the pattern was altered, thus, infants were expected to update their predictions for the upcoming stimuli. Because the pattern remained the same after the no-update cue, no subsequent updating was required. Infants showed an amplified negative central (Nc) response when the predictable sequence was interrupted. Late components such as the PSW were also evoked in response to unexpected stimuli; however, we found no evidence for a differential response to the informational value of surprising cues at later stages of processing. Infants rather learned that surprising cues always signal a change in the environment that requires updating. Interestingly, infants responded with an amplified neural response to the absence of an expected change, suggesting a top-down modulation of early sensory processing in infants. Our findings corroborate emerging evidence showing that infants build predictive models early in life.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KayhanWagnerMeyerO’Reillyetal.2019,
  author    = {Kayhan Wagner, Ezgi and Meyer, Marlene and O'Reilly, J.X. and Hunnius, Sabine and Bekkering, Harold},
  title     = {Nine-month-old infants update their predictive models of a changing environment},
  series = {Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience : a journal for cognitive, affective and social developmental neuroscience},
  volume    = {38},
  journal   = {Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience : a journal for cognitive, affective and social developmental neuroscience},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {1878-9293},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.dcn.2019.100680},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Humans generate internal models of their environment to predict events in the world. As the environments change, our brains adjust to these changes by updating their internal models. Here, we investigated whether and how 9-month-old infants differentially update their models to represent a dynamic environment. Infants observed a predictable sequence of stimuli, which were interrupted by two types of cues. Following the update cue, the pattern was altered, thus, infants were expected to update their predictions for the upcoming stimuli. Because the pattern remained the same after the no-update cue, no subsequent updating was required. Infants showed an amplified negative central (Nc) response when the predictable sequence was interrupted. Late components such as the PSW were also evoked in response to unexpected stimuli; however, we found no evidence for a differential response to the informational value of surprising cues at later stages of processing. Infants rather learned that surprising cues always signal a change in the environment that requires updating. Interestingly, infants responded with an amplified neural response to the absence of an expected change, suggesting a top-down modulation of early sensory processing in infants. Our findings corroborate emerging evidence showing that infants build predictive models early in life.},
  language  = {en}
}