@phdthesis{Krummenauer2022,
  author    = {Krummenauer, Linda},
  title     = {Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55929},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-559294},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xix, 161},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30\% to 40\% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80\% to 84\% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Schmitz2023,
  author    = {Schmitz, Se{\´a}n},
  title     = {Using low-cost sensors to gather high resolution measurements of air quality in urban environments and inform mobility policy},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-60105},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-601053},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {180},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Air pollution has been a persistent global problem in the past several hundred years. While some industrialized nations have shown improvements in their air quality through stricter regulation, others have experienced declines as they rapidly industrialize. The WHO's 2021 update of their recommended air pollution limit values reflects the substantial impacts on human health of pollutants such as NO2 and O3, as recent epidemiological evidence suggests substantial long-term health impacts of air pollution even at low concentrations. Alongside developments in our understanding of air pollution's health impacts, the new technology of low-cost sensors (LCS) has been taken up by both academia and industry as a new method for measuring air pollution. Due primarily to their lower cost and smaller size, they can be used in a variety of different applications, including in the development of higher resolution measurement networks, in source identification, and in measurements of air pollution exposure. While significant efforts have been made to accurately calibrate LCS with reference instrumentation and various statistical models, accuracy and precision remain limited by variable sensor sensitivity. Furthermore, standard procedures for calibration still do not exist and most proprietary calibration algorithms are black-box, inaccessible to the public. This work seeks to expand the knowledge base on LCS in several different ways: 1) by developing an open-source calibration methodology; 2) by deploying LCS at high spatial resolution in urban environments to test their capability in measuring microscale changes in urban air pollution; 3) by connecting LCS deployments with the implementation of local mobility policies to provide policy advice on resultant changes in air quality. In a first step, it was found that LCS can be consistently calibrated with good performance against reference instrumentation using seven general steps: 1) assessing raw data distribution, 2) cleaning data, 3) flagging data, 4) model selection and tuning, 5) model validation, 6) exporting final predictions, and 7) calculating associated uncertainty. By emphasizing the need for consistent reporting of details at each step, most crucially on model selection, validation, and performance, this work pushed forward with the effort towards standardization of calibration methodologies. In addition, with the open-source publication of code and data for the seven-step methodology, advances were made towards reforming the largely black-box nature of LCS calibrations. With a transparent and reliable calibration methodology established, LCS were then deployed in various street canyons between 2017 and 2020. Using two types of LCS, metal oxide (MOS) and electrochemical (EC), their performance in capturing expected patterns of urban NO2 and O3 pollution was evaluated. Results showed that calibrated concentrations from MOS and EC sensors matched general diurnal patterns in NO2 and O3 pollution measured using reference instruments. While MOS proved to be unreliable for discerning differences among measured locations within the urban environment, the concentrations measured with calibrated EC sensors matched expectations from modelling studies on NO2 and O3 pollution distribution in street canyons. As such, it was concluded that LCS are appropriate for measuring urban air quality, including for assisting urban-scale air pollution model development, and can reveal new insights into air pollution in urban environments. To achieve the last goal of this work, two measurement campaigns were conducted in connection with the implementation of three mobility policies in Berlin. The first involved the construction of a pop-up bike lane on Kottbusser Damm in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the second surrounded the temporary implementation of a community space on B{\"o}ckhstrasse, and the last was focused on the closure of a portion of Friedrichstrasse to all motorized traffic. In all cases, measurements of NO2 were collected before and after the measure was implemented to assess changes in air quality resultant from these policies. Results from the Kottbusser Damm experiment showed that the bike-lane reduced NO2 concentrations that cyclists were exposed to by 22 ± 19\%. On Friedrichstrasse, the street closure reduced NO2 concentrations to the level of the urban background without worsening the air quality on side streets. These valuable results were communicated swiftly to partners in the city administration responsible for evaluating the policies' success and future, highlighting the ability of LCS to provide policy-relevant results. As a new technology, much is still to be learned about LCS and their value to academic research in the atmospheric sciences. Nevertheless, this work has advanced the state of the art in several ways. First, it contributed a novel open-source calibration methodology that can be used by a LCS end-users for various air pollutants. Second, it strengthened the evidence base on the reliability of LCS for measuring urban air quality, finding through novel deployments in street canyons that LCS can be used at high spatial resolution to understand microscale air pollution dynamics. Last, it is the first of its kind to connect LCS measurements directly with mobility policies to understand their influences on local air quality, resulting in policy-relevant findings valuable for decisionmakers. It serves as an example of the potential for LCS to expand our understanding of air pollution at various scales, as well as their ability to serve as valuable tools in transdisciplinary research.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Schrauth2022,
  author    = {Schrauth, Philipp},
  title     = {Agglomerations, air quality and urban transformation},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58608},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586087},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {253},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Die vorliegende Dissertation stellt empirische Untersuchungen {\"u}ber den Zusammenhang von st{\"a}dtischem Leben und dessen {\"o}konomische Kosten, insbesondere f{\"u}r die Umwelt, an. Dabei werden zum einen bestehende Forschungsl{\"u}cken des Einflusses von Bev{\"o}lkerungsdichte auf die Luftqualit{\"a}t geschlossen und zum anderen innovative Politikmaßnahmen im Verkehrsbereich untersucht, die Ballungsr{\"a}ume nachhaltiger gestalten sollen. Im Zentrum der Betrachtungen stehen Luftverschmutzung, Staus und Verkehrsunf{\"a}lle, die f{\"u}r Fragen der allgemeinen Wohlfahrt bedeutend sind und erhebliche Kostenfaktoren f{\"u}r urbanes Leben darstellen. Von ihnen ist ein betr{\"a}chtlicher Anteil der Weltbev{\"o}lkerung betroffen. W{\"a}hrend im Jahr 2018 bereits 55\% der Menschen weltweit in St{\"a}dten lebten, soll dieser Anteil bis zum Jahr 2050 ungef{\"a}hr 68\% betragen. Die vier in sich geschlossenen Kapitel dieser Arbeit lassen sich in zwei Abschnitte aufteilen: In den Kapiteln 2 und 3 werden neue kausale Erkenntnisse {\"u}ber das komplexe Zusammenspiel von st{\"a}dtischen Strukturen und Luftverschmutzung erbracht. Kapitel 4 und 5 untersuchen anschließend politische Maßnahmen zur F{\"o}rderung nicht-motorisierter Verkehrsmittel und deren Einfluss auf Luftqualit{\"a}t sowie Staugeschehen und Verkehrsunf{\"a}lle.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{SvirejevaHopkins2004,
  author    = {Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia},
  title     = {Urbanised territories as a specific component of the global carbon cycle},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0001512},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2004},
  abstract  = {Wir betrachten folgende Teile: die zus{\"a}tzlichen Kohlenstoff(C)-emissionen, welche aus der Umwandlung von nat{\"u}rlichem Umland durch Stadtwachstum resultieren, und die {\"A}nderung des C-Flusses durch 'urbanisierte' {\"O}kosysteme, soweit atmosph{\"a}risches C durch diese in umliegende nat{\"u}rliche {\"O}kosysteme entlang der Kette \“Atmosph{\"a}re -> Vegetation -> abgestorbene organische Substanzen\” gepumpt wird: d.h. C-Export; f{\"u}r den Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2050. Als Szenario nutzen wir Prognosen der regionalen Stadtbev{\"o}lkerung, welche durch ein 'Hybridmodell' generiert werden f{\"u}r acht Regionen. Alle Sch{\"a}tzungen der C-Fl{\"u}sse basieren auf zwei Modellen: das Regression Modell und das sogenannte G-Modell. Die Siedlungsfl{\"a}che, welche mit dem Wachstum der Stadtbev{\"o}lkerung zunimmt, wird in 'Gr{\"u}nfl{\"a}chen' (Parks, usw.), Geb{\"a}udefl{\"a}chen und informell st{\"a}dtisch genutzte Fl{\"a}chen (Slums, illegale Lagerpl{\"a}tze, usw.) unterteilt. Es werden j{\"a}hrlich die regionale und globale Dynamik der C-Emissionen und des C-Exports sowie die C-Gesamtbilanz berechnet. Dabei liefern beide Modelle qualitativ {\"a}hnliche Ergebnisse, jedoch gibt es einige quantitative Unterschiede. Im ersten Modell erreicht die globale Jahresemission f{\"u}r die Dekade 2020-2030 resultierend aus der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderung ein Maximum von 205 Mt/a. Die maximalen Beitr{\"a}ge zur globalen Emission werden durch China, die asiatische und die pazifische Region erbracht. Im zweiten Modell erh{\"o}ht sich die j{\"a}hrliche globale Emission von 1.12 GtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 1.25 GtC/a f{\"u}r 2005 (1Gt = 109 t). Danach beginnt eine Reduzierung. Vergleichen wir das Emissionmaximum mit der Emission durch Abholzung im Jahre 1980 (1.36 GtC/a), k{\"o}nnen wir konstatieren, daß die Urbanisierung damit in vergleichbarer Gr{\"o}sse zur Emission beitr{\"a}gt. Bezogen auf die globale Dynamik des j{\"a}hrlichen C-Exports durch Urbanisierung beobachten wir ein monotones Wachstum bis zum nahezu dreifachen Wert von 24 MtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 66 MtC/a f{\"u}r 2050 im ersten Modell, bzw. im zweiten Modell von 249 MtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 505 MtC/a f{\"u}r 2050. Damit ist im zweiten Fall die Transportleistung der Siedlungsgebiete mit dem C-Transport durch Fl{\"u}sse in die Ozeane (196 .. 537 MtC/a) vergleichbar. Bei der Absch{\"a}tzung der Gesamtbilanz finden wir, daß die Urbanisierung die Bilanz in Richtung zu einer 'Senke' verschiebt. Entsprechend dem zweiten Modell beginnt sich die C-Gesamtbilanz (nach ann{\"a}hernder Konstanz) ab dem Jahre 2000 mit einer fast konstanten Rate zu verringern. Wenn das Maximum im Jahre 2000 bei 905MtC/a liegt, f{\"a}llt dieser Wert anschliessend bis zum Jahre 2050 auf 118 MtC/a. Bei Extrapolation dieser Dynamik in die Zukunft k{\"o}nnen wir annehmen, daß am Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts die \“urbane\” C-Gesamtbilanz Null bzw. negative Werte erreicht.},
  language  = {en}
}