@article{GhoddousiVanCayzeeleNegahdaretal.2022,
  author    = {Ghoddousi, Arash and Van Cayzeele, Corinna and Negahdar, Pegah and Soofi, Mahmood and Kh. Hamidi, Amirhossein and Bleyhl, Benjamin and Fandos, Guillermo and Khorozyan, Igor and Waltert, Matthias and Kuemmerle, Tobias},
  title     = {Understanding spatial patterns of poaching pressure using ranger logbook data to optimize future patrolling strategies},
  series = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America},
  volume    = {32},
  journal   = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1051-0761},
  doi       = {10.1002/eap.2601},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Poaching is driving many species toward extinction, and as a result, lowering poaching pressure is a conservation priority. This requires understanding where poaching pressure is high and which factors determine these spatial patterns. However, the cryptic and illegal nature of poaching makes this difficult. Ranger patrol data, typically recorded in protected area logbooks, contain information on patrolling efforts and poaching detection and should thus provide opportunities for a better understanding of poaching pressure. However, these data are seldom analyzed and rarely used to inform adaptive management strategies. We developed a novel approach to making use of analog logbook records to map poaching pressure and to test environmental criminology and predator-prey relationship hypotheses explaining poaching patterns. We showcase this approach for Golestan National Park in Iran, where poaching has substantially depleted ungulate populations. We digitized data from >4800 ranger patrols from 2014 to 2016 and used an occupancy modeling framework to relate poaching to (1) accessibility, (2) law enforcement, and (3) prey availability factors. Based on predicted poaching pressure and patrolling intensity, we provide suggestions for future patrol allocation strategies. Our results revealed a low probability (12\%) of poacher detection during patrols. Poaching distribution was best explained by prey availability, indicating that poachers target areas with high concentrations of ungulates. Poaching pressure was estimated to be high (>0.49) in 39\% of our study area. To alleviate poaching pressure, we recommend ramping up patrolling intensity in 12\% of the national park, which could be achievable by reducing excess patrols in about 20\% of the park. However, our results suggest that for 27\% of the park, it is necessary to improve patrolling quality to increase detection probability of poaching, for example, by closing temporal patrolling gaps or expanding informant networks. Our approach illustrates that analog ranger logbooks are an untapped resource for evidence-based and adaptive planning of protected area management. Using this wealth of data can open up new avenues to better understand poaching and its determinants, to expand effectiveness assessments to the past, and, more generally, to allow for strategic conservation planning in protected areas.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{RomeroMunozFandosBenitezLopezetal.2020,
  author    = {Romero-Munoz, Alfredo and Fandos, Guillermo and Ben{\´i}tez-L{\´o}pez, Ana and Kuemmerle, Tobias},
  title     = {Habitat destruction and overexploitation drive widespread declines in all facets of mammalian diversity in the Gran Chaco},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {4},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-56769},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-567696},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexploitation. We provide the first long-term assessment of multifaceted biodiversity changes caused by these threats for any tropical region. Focussing on larger mammals in South America's 1.1 million km(2) Gran Chaco region, we assessed changes in multiple biodiversity facets between 1985 and 2015, determined which threats drive those changes, and identified remaining key areas for all biodiversity facets. Using habitat and threat maps, we found, first, that between 1985 and 2015 taxonomic (TD), phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity all declined drastically across over half of the area assessed. FD declined about 50\% faster than TD and PD, and these declines were mainly driven by species loss, rather than species turnover. Second, habitat destruction, hunting, and both threats together contributed similar to 57\%, similar to 37\%, and similar to 6\% to overall facet declines, respectively. However, hunting pressure increased where TD and PD declined most strongly, whereas habitat destruction disproportionally contributed to FD declines. Third, just 23\% of the Chaco would have to be protected to safeguard the top 17\% of all three facets. Our findings uncover a widespread impoverishment of mammal species richness, evolutionary history, and ecological functions across broad areas of the Chaco due to increasing habitat destruction and hunting. Moreover, our results pinpoint key areas that should be preserved and managed to maintain all facets of mammalian diversity across the Chaco. More generally, our work highlights how long-term changes in biodiversity facets can be assessed and attributed to specific threats, to better understand human impacts on biodiversity and to guide conservation planning to mitigate them.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RomeroMunozFandosBenitezLopezetal.2020,
  author    = {Romero-Munoz, Alfredo and Fandos, Guillermo and Ben{\´i}tez-L{\´o}pez, Ana and Kuemmerle, Tobias},
  title     = {Habitat destruction and overexploitation drive widespread declines in all facets of mammalian diversity in the Gran Chaco},
  series = {Global change biology},
  volume    = {27},
  journal   = {Global change biology},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1354-1013},
  doi       = {10.1111/gcb.15418},
  pages     = {755 -- 767},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexploitation. We provide the first long-term assessment of multifaceted biodiversity changes caused by these threats for any tropical region. Focussing on larger mammals in South America's 1.1 million km(2) Gran Chaco region, we assessed changes in multiple biodiversity facets between 1985 and 2015, determined which threats drive those changes, and identified remaining key areas for all biodiversity facets. Using habitat and threat maps, we found, first, that between 1985 and 2015 taxonomic (TD), phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity all declined drastically across over half of the area assessed. FD declined about 50\% faster than TD and PD, and these declines were mainly driven by species loss, rather than species turnover. Second, habitat destruction, hunting, and both threats together contributed similar to 57\%, similar to 37\%, and similar to 6\% to overall facet declines, respectively. However, hunting pressure increased where TD and PD declined most strongly, whereas habitat destruction disproportionally contributed to FD declines. Third, just 23\% of the Chaco would have to be protected to safeguard the top 17\% of all three facets. Our findings uncover a widespread impoverishment of mammal species richness, evolutionary history, and ecological functions across broad areas of the Chaco due to increasing habitat destruction and hunting. Moreover, our results pinpoint key areas that should be preserved and managed to maintain all facets of mammalian diversity across the Chaco. More generally, our work highlights how long-term changes in biodiversity facets can be assessed and attributed to specific threats, to better understand human impacts on biodiversity and to guide conservation planning to mitigate them.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZurellKoenigMalchowetal.2022,
  author    = {Zurell, Damaris and K{\"o}nig, Christian and Malchow, Anne-Kathleen and Kapitza, Simon and Bocedi, Greta and Travis, Justin M. J. and Fandos, Guillermo},
  title     = {Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration},
  series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos},
  journal   = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {1600-0587},
  doi       = {10.1111/ecog.05787},
  pages     = {1 -- 16},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79\%), towards the species and population level (80\%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71\%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10\% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{ZurellKoenigMalchowetal.2021,
  author    = {Zurell, Damaris and K{\"o}nig, Christian and Malchow, Anne-Kathleen and Kapitza, Simon and Bocedi, Greta and Travis, Justin M. J. and Fandos, Guillermo},
  title     = {Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  volume    = {2022},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  edition   = {4},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-54991},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549915},
  pages     = {1 -- 16},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79\%), towards the species and population level (80\%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71\%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10\% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.},
  language  = {en}
}