@phdthesis{Schmidt2014, author = {Schmidt, Lukas}, title = {Aerosols and boundary layer structure over Arctic sea ice based on airborne lidar and dropsonde measurements}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-75076}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {vii, 98, xiii}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean is strongly influenced by the distribution of sea ice and open water. Leads in the sea ice produce strong convective fluxes of sensible and latent heat and release aerosol particles into the atmosphere. They increase the occurrence of clouds and modify the structure and characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and thereby influence the Arctic climate. In the course of this study aircraft measurements were performed over the western Arctic Ocean as part of the campaign PAMARCMIP 2012 of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). Backscatter from aerosols and clouds within the lower troposphere and the ABL were measured with the nadir pointing Airborne Mobile Aerosol Lidar (AMALi) and dropsondes were launched to obtain profiles of meteorological variables. Furthermore, in situ measurements of aerosol properties, meteorological variables and turbulence were part of the campaign. The measurements covered a broad range of atmospheric and sea ice conditions. In this thesis, properties of the ABL over Arctic sea ice with a focus on the influence of open leads are studied based on the data from the PAMARCMIP campaign. The height of the ABL is determined by different methods that are applied to dropsonde and AMALi backscatter profiles. ABL heights are compared for different flights representing different conditions of the atmosphere and of sea ice and open water influence. The different criteria for ABL height that are applied show large variation in terms of agreement among each other, depending on the characteristics of the ABL and its history. It is shown that ABL height determination from lidar backscatter by methods commonly used under mid-latitude conditions is applicable to the Arctic ABL only under certain conditions. Aerosol or clouds within the ABL are needed as a tracer for ABL height detection from backscatter. Hence an aerosol source close to the surface is necessary, that is typically found under the present influence of open water and therefore convective conditions. However it is not always possible to distinguish residual layers from the actual ABL. Stable boundary layers are generally difficult to detect. To illustrate the complexity of the Arctic ABL and processes therein, four case studies are analyzed each of which represents a snapshot of the interplay between atmosphere and underlying sea ice or water surface. Influences of leads and open water on the aerosol and clouds within the ABL are identified and discussed. Leads are observed to cause the formation of fog and cloud layers within the ABL by humidity emission. Furthermore they decrease the stability and increase the height of the ABL and consequently facilitate entrainment of air and aerosol layers from the free troposphere.}, language = {en} } @article{Wilhelm2018, author = {Wilhelm, Jan Lorenz}, title = {Atmosphere in the home stadium of Hertha BSC (German Bundesliga)}, series = {Social \& cultural geography}, volume = {21}, journal = {Social \& cultural geography}, number = {5}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1464-9365}, doi = {10.1080/14649365.2018.1514646}, pages = {718 -- 737}, year = {2018}, abstract = {German football stadiums are well known for their atmosphere. It is often described as 'electrifying,' or 'cracking.' This article focuses on this atmosphere. Using a phenomenological approach, it explores how this emotionality can be understood and how geography matters while attending a match. Atmosphere in this context is conceptualized based on work by as a mood-charged space, neither object- nor subject-centered, but rather a medium of perception which cannot not exist. Based on qualitative research done in the home stadium of Hertha BSC in the German Bundesliga, this article shows that the bodily sensations experienced by spectators during a visit to the stadium are synchronized with events on the pitch and with the more or less imposing scenery. The analysis ofin situdiaries reveals that spectators experience a comprehensive sense of collectivity. The study presents evidence that the occurrence of these bodily sensations is strongly connected with different aspects of spatiality. This includes sensations of constriction and expansion within the body, an awareness of one's location within the stadium, the influence of the immediate surroundings and cognitive here/there and inside/outside distinctions.}, language = {en} } @misc{Wilhelm2018, author = {Wilhelm, Jan Lorenz}, title = {Atmosphere in the home stadium of Hertha BSC (German Bundesliga)}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {486}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-420639}, pages = {21}, year = {2018}, abstract = {German football stadiums are well known for their atmosphere. It is often described as 'electrifying,' or 'cracking.' This article focuses on this atmosphere. Using a phenomenological approach, it explores how this emotionality can be understood and how geography matters while attending a match. Atmosphere in this context is conceptualized based on work by as a mood-charged space, neither object- nor subject-centered, but rather a medium of perception which cannot not exist. Based on qualitative research done in the home stadium of Hertha BSC in the German Bundesliga, this article shows that the bodily sensations experienced by spectators during a visit to the stadium are synchronized with events on the pitch and with the more or less imposing scenery. The analysis of in situ diaries reveals that spectators experience a comprehensive sense of collectivity. The study presents evidence that the occurrence of these bodily sensations is strongly connected with different aspects of spatiality. This includes sensations of constriction and expansion within the body, an awareness of one's location within the stadium, the influence of the immediate surroundings and cognitive here/there and inside/outside distinctions.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Streibel2005, author = {Streibel, Martin Albert Gerhard}, title = {Bestimmung von Ozonabbauraten {\"u}ber der Arktis und Antarktis mittels Ozonsonden- und Satellitendaten}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-6570}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2005}, abstract = {Diese Arbeit besch{\"a}ftigt sich mit der chemischen Ozonzerst{\"o}rung im arktischen und antarktischen stratosph{\"a}rischen Polarwirbel. Diese wird durch Abbauprodukte von anthropogen emittierten Fluorchlorkohlenwasserstoffen und Halonen, Chlor- und Bromradikale, verursacht. Studien in denen der gemessene und modellierte Ozonabbau verglichen wird zeigen, dass die Prozeße bekannt sind, der quantitative Verlauf allerdings nicht vollst{\"a}ndig verstanden ist. Die Prozesse, die zur Ozonzerst{\"o}rung f{\"u}hren sind in beiden Polarwirbeln {\"a}hnlich. Allerdings f{\"a}llt als Konsequenz unterschiedlicher meteorologischer Bedingungen der chemische Ozonabbau im arktischen Polarwirbel weniger drastisch aus als {\"u}ber der Antarktis. Der arktische Polarwirbel ist im Mittel st{\"a}rker dynamisch gest{\"o}rt als der antarktische und weist eine st{\"a}rkere Jahr-zu-Jahr Variabilit{\"a}t auf. Das erschwert die Messung des chemischen Ozonabbaus. Zur Trennung des chemischen Ozonabbaus von der dynamischen Umverteilung des Ozons im arktischen Polarwirbel wurde die Matchmethode entwickelt. Bei dieser Methode werden Luftpakete innerhalb des Polarwirbels mehrfach beprobt, um den chemischen Anteil der Ozon{\"a}nderung zu quantifizieren. Zur Identifizierung von doppelt beprobten Luftpaketen werden Trajektorien aus Windfeldern berechnet. K{\"o}nnen zwei Messungen im Rahmen bestimmter Qualit{\"a}tskriterien durch eine Trajektorie verbunden werden, kann die Ozondifferenz zwischen beiden Sondierungen berechnet und als chemischer Ozonabbau interpretiert werden. Eine solche Koinzidenz wird Match genannt. Der Matchmethode liegt ein statistischer Ansatz zugrunde, so dass eine Vielzahl solcher doppelt beprobter Luftmassen vorliegen muss, um gesicherte Aussagen {\"u}ber die Ozonzerst{\"o}rung gewinnen zu k{\"o}nnen. So erh{\"a}lt man die Ozonzerst{\"o}rung in einem bestimmten Zeitintervall, also Ozonabbauraten. Um die Anzahl an doppelt beprobten Luftpackten zu erh{\"o}hen wurde eine aktive Koordinierung der Ozonsondenaufstiege entwickelt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden Matchkampagnen w{\"a}hrend des arktischen Winters 2002/2003 und zum ersten Mal w{\"a}hrend eines antarktischen Winter (2003) durchgef{\"u}hrt. Aus den gewonnenen Daten wurden Ozonabbauraten in beiden Polarwirbeln bestimmt. Diese Abbauraten dienen zum einen der Evaluierung von Modellen, erm{\"o}glichen aber auch den direkten Vergleich von Ozonabbauraten in beiden Polarwirbeln. Der Winter 2002/2003 war zu Beginn durch sehr tiefe Temperaturen in der mittleren und unteren Stratosph{\"a}re charakterisiert, so dass die Matchkampagne Ende November gestartet wurde. Ab Januar war der Polarwirbel zeitweise stark dynamisch gest{\"o}rt. Die Kampagne ging bis Mitte M{\"a}rz. F{\"u}r den H{\"o}henbereich von 400 bis 550 K potentieller Temperatur (15-23 km) konnten Ozonabbauraten und der Verlust in der Gesamts{\"a}ule berechnet werden. Die Ozonabbauraten wurden in verschiedenen Tests auf ihre Stabilit{\"a}t {\"u}berpr{\"u}ft. Der antarktische Polarwirbel war vom Beginn des Winters bis Mitte Oktober 2003 sehr kalt und stellte Ende September kurzzeitig den Rekord f{\"u}r die gr{\"o}ßte bisher aufgetretene Ozonloch-Fl{\"a}che ein. Es konnten f{\"u}r den Kampagnenzeitraum, Anfang Juni bis Anfang Oktober, Ozonabbauraten im H{\"o}henbereich von 400 bis 550 K potentieller Temperatur ermittelt werden. Der zeitliche Verlauf des Ozonabbaus war dabei auf fast allen H{\"o}henniveaus identisch. Die Zunahme des Sonnenlichtes im Polarwirbel mit der Zeit f{\"u}hrt zu einem starken Anwachsen der Ozonabbauraten. Ab Mitte September gingen die Ozonabbauraten auf Null zur{\"u}ck, da bis zu diesem Zeitpunkt das gesamte Ozon zwischen ca. 14 und 21 km zerst{\"o}rt wurde. Im letzten Teil der Arbeit wird ein neuer Algorithmus auf Basis der multivariaten Regression vorgestellt, mit dem Ozonabbauraten aus Ozonprofilen verschiedener Sensoren gleichzeitig berechnet werden k{\"o}nnen. Dabei k{\"o}nnen neben der Ozonabbaurate die systematischen Fehler zwischen den einzelnen Sensoren bestimmt werden. Dies wurde exemplarisch am antarktischen Winter 2003 f{\"u}r das 475 K potentielle Temperatur Niveau gezeigt. Neben den Ozonprofilen der Sonden wurden Daten von zwei Satellitenexperimenten verwendet. Die mit der multivariaten Matchtechnik berechneten Ozonabbauraten stimmen gut mit den Ozonabbauraten der Einzelsensor-Matchans{\"a}tze {\"u}berein.}, subject = {Ozon}, language = {de} } @article{DinevaPearsonIlyinetal.2022, author = {Dineva, Ekaterina Ivanova and Pearson, Jeniveve and Ilyin, Ilya and Verma, Meetu and Diercke, Andrea and Strassmeier, Klaus and Denker, Carsten}, title = {Characterization of chromospheric activity based on Sun-as-a-star spectral and disk-resolved activity indices}, series = {Astronomische Nachrichten = Astronomical notes}, volume = {343}, journal = {Astronomische Nachrichten = Astronomical notes}, number = {5}, publisher = {Wiley-VCH}, address = {Weinheim}, issn = {0004-6337}, doi = {10.1002/asna.20223996}, pages = {23}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The strong chromospheric absorption lines Ca ii H \& K are tightly connected to stellar surface magnetic fields. Only for the Sun, spectral activity indices can be related to evolving magnetic features on the solar disk. The Solar Disk-Integrated (SDI) telescope feeds the Potsdam Echelle Polarimetric and Spectroscopic Instrument (PEPSI) of the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) at Mt. Graham International Observatory, Arizona, U.S.A. We present high-resolution, high-fidelity spectra that were recorded on 184 \& 82 days in 2018 \& 2019 and derive the Ca ii H \& K emission ratio, that is, the S-index. In addition, we compile excess brightness and area indices based on full-disk Ca ii K-line-core filtergrams of the Chromospheric Telescope (ChroTel) at Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, Spain and full-disk ultraviolet (UV) 1600 angstrom images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Thus, Sun-as-a-star spectral indices are related to their counterparts derived from resolved images of the solar chromosphere. All indices display signatures of rotational modulation, even during the very low magnetic activity in the minimum of Solar Cycle 24. Bringing together different types of activity indices has the potential to join disparate chromospheric datasets yielding a comprehensive description of chromospheric activity across many solar cycles.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Alexoudi2023, author = {Alexoudi, Xanthippi}, title = {Clarifying the discrepant results in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-60565}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-605659}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xvi, 125}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Planets outside our solar system, so-called "exoplanets", can be detected with different methods, and currently more than 5000 exoplanets have been confirmed, according to NASA Exoplanet Archive. One major highlight of the studies on exoplanets in the past twenty years is the characterization of their atmospheres usingtransmission spectroscopy as the exoplanet transits. However, this characterization is a challenging process and sometimes there are reported discrepancies in the literature regarding the atmosphere of the same exoplanet. One potential reason for the observed atmospheric inconsistencies is called impact parameter degeneracy, and it is highly driven by the limb darkening effect of the host star. A brief introductionto those topics in presented in chapter 1, while the motivation and objectives of thiswork are described in chapter 2.The first goal is to clarify the origin of the transmission spectrum, which is anindicator of an exoplanet's atmosphere; whether it is real or influenced by the impactparameter degeneracy. A second goal is to determine whether photometry from space using the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), could improve on the major parameters, which are responsible for the aforementioned degeneracy, of known exoplanetary systems. Three individual projects were conducted in order toaddress those goals. The three manuscripts are presented, in short, in the manuscriptoverview in chapter 3.More specifically, in chapter 4, the first manuscript is presented, which is an ex-tended investigation on the impact parameter degeneracy and its application onsynthetic transmission spectra. Evidently, the limb darkening of the host star isan important driver for this effect. It keeps the degeneracy persisting through different groups of exoplanets, based on the uncertainty of their impact parameter and on the type of their host star. The second goal, was addressed in the second and third manuscripts (chapter 5 and chapter 6 respectively). Using observationsfrom the TESS mission, two samples of exoplanets were studied; 10 transiting inflated hot-Jupiters and 43 transiting grazing systems. Potentially, the refinement or confirmation of their major system parameters' measurements can assist in solving current or future discrepancies regarding their atmospheric characterization.In chapter 7 the conclusions of this work are discussed, while in chapter 8 itis proposed how TESS's measurements can be able to discern between erroneousinterpretations of transmission spectra, especially on systems where the impact parameter degeneracy is likely not applicable.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Aue2024, author = {Aue, Lars}, title = {Cyclone impacts on sea ice in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-63445}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-634458}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {VIII, 131}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The Arctic is the hot spot of the ongoing, global climate change. Over the last decades, near-surface temperatures in the Arctic have been rising almost four times faster than on global average. This amplified warming of the Arctic and the associated rapid changes of its environment are largely influenced by interactions between individual components of the Arctic climate system. On daily to weekly time scales, storms can have major impacts on the Arctic sea-ice cover and are thus an important part of these interactions within the Arctic climate. The sea-ice impacts of storms are related to high wind speeds, which enhance the drift and deformation of sea ice, as well as to changes in the surface energy budget in association with air mass advection, which impact the seasonal sea-ice growth and melt. The occurrence of storms in the Arctic is typically associated with the passage of transient cyclones. Even though the above described mechanisms how storms/cyclones impact the Arctic sea ice are in principal known, there is a lack of statistical quantification of these effects. In accordance with that, the overarching objective of this thesis is to statistically quantify cyclone impacts on sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean over the last four decades. In order to further advance the understanding of the related mechanisms, an additional objective is to separate dynamic and thermodynamic cyclone impacts on sea ice and assess their relative importance. Finally, this thesis aims to quantify recent changes in cyclone impacts on SIC. These research objectives are tackled utilizing various data sets, including atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data as well as a coupled model simulation and a cyclone tracking algorithm. Results from this thesis demonstrate that cyclones are significantly impacting SIC in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean from autumn to spring, while there are mostly no significant impacts in summer. The strength and the sign (SIC decreasing or SIC increasing) of the cyclone impacts strongly depends on the considered daily time scale and the region of the Atlantic Arctic Ocean. Specifically, an initial decrease in SIC (day -3 to day 0 relative to the cyclone) is found in the Greenland, Barents and Kara Seas, while SIC increases following cyclones (day 0 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) are mostly limited to the Barents and Kara Seas. For the cold season, this results in a pronounced regional difference between overall (day -3 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) SIC-decreasing cyclone impacts in the Greenland Sea and overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in the Barents and Kara Seas. A cyclone case study based on a coupled model simulation indicates that both dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms contribute to cyclone impacts on sea ice in winter. A typical pattern consisting of an initial dominance of dynamic sea-ice changes followed by enhanced thermodynamic ice growth after the cyclone passage was found. This enhanced ice growth after the cyclone passage most likely also explains the (statistical) overall SIC-increasing effects of cyclones in the Barents and Kara Seas in the cold season. Significant changes in cyclone impacts on SIC over the last four decades have emerged throughout the year. These recent changes are strongly varying from region to region and month to month. The strongest trends in cyclone impacts on SIC are found in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas. Here, the magnitude of destructive cyclone impacts on SIC has approximately doubled over the last four decades. The SIC-increasing effects following the cyclone passage have particularly weakened in the Barents Sea in autumn. As a consequence, previously existing overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in this region in autumn have recently disappeared. Generally, results from this thesis show that changes in the state of the sea-ice cover (decrease in mean sea-ice concentration and thickness) and near-surface air temperature are most important for changed cyclone impacts on SIC, while changes in cyclone properties (i.e. intensity) do not play a significant role.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Littmann2024, author = {Littmann, Daniela-Christin}, title = {Large eddy simulations of the Arctic boundary layer around the MOSAiC drift track}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-62437}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-624374}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xii, 110}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The icosahedral non-hydrostatic large eddy model (ICON-LEM) was applied around the drift track of the Multidisciplinary Observatory Study of the Arctic (MOSAiC) in 2019 and 2020. The model was set up with horizontal grid-scales between 100m and 800m on areas with radii of 17.5km and 140 km. At its lateral boundaries, the model was driven by analysis data from the German Weather Service (DWD), downscaled by ICON in limited area mode (ICON-LAM) with horizontal grid-scale of 3 km. The aim of this thesis was the investigation of the atmospheric boundary layer near the surface in the central Arctic during polar winter with a high-resolution mesoscale model. The default settings in ICON-LEM prevent the model from representing the exchange processes in the Arctic boundary layer in accordance to the MOSAiC observations. The implemented sea-ice scheme in ICON does not include a snow layer on sea-ice, which causes a too slow response of the sea-ice surface temperature to atmospheric changes. To allow the sea-ice surface to respond faster to changes in the atmosphere, the implemented sea-ice parameterization in ICON was extended with an adapted heat capacity term. The adapted sea-ice parameterization resulted in better agreement with the MOSAiC observations. However, the sea-ice surface temperature in the model is generally lower than observed due to biases in the downwelling long-wave radiation and the lack of complex surface structures, like leads. The large eddy resolving turbulence closure yielded a better representation of the lower boundary layer under strongly stable stratification than the non-eddy-resolving turbulence closure. Furthermore, the integration of leads into the sea-ice surface reduced the overestimation of the sensible heat flux for different weather conditions. The results of this work help to better understand boundary layer processes in the central Arctic during the polar night. High-resolving mesoscale simulations are able to represent temporally and spatially small interactions and help to further develop parameterizations also for the application in regional and global models.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Riebold2023, author = {Riebold, Johannes}, title = {On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, the large-scale atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes over Europe}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-60488}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-604883}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xi, 126}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Extreme weather and climate events are one of the greatest dangers for present-day society. Therefore, it is important to provide reliable statements on what changes in extreme events can be expected along with future global climate change. However, the projected overall response to future climate change is generally a result of a complex interplay between individual physical mechanisms originated within the different climate subsystems. Hence, a profound understanding of these individual contributions is required in order to provide meaningful assessments of future changes in extreme events. One aspect of climate change is the recently observed phenomenon of Arctic Amplification and the related dramatic Arctic sea ice decline, which is expected to continue over the next decades. The question to what extent Arctic sea ice loss is able to affect atmospheric dynamics and extreme events over mid-latitudes has received a lot of attention over recent years and still remains a highly debated topic. In this respect, the objective of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding on the impact of future Arctic sea ice retreat on European temperature extremes and large-scale atmospheric dynamics. The outcomes are based on model data from the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. Two different sea ice sensitivity simulations from the Polar Amplification Intercomparison Project are employed and contrasted to a present day reference experiment: one experiment with prescribed future sea ice loss over the entire Arctic, as well as another one with sea ice reductions only locally prescribed over the Barents-Kara Sea.\% prescribed over the entire Arctic, as well as only locally over the Barent/Karasea with a present day reference experiment. The first part of the thesis focuses on how future Arctic sea ice reductions affect large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Northern Hemisphere in terms of occurrence frequency changes of five preferred Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes. When compared to circulation regimes computed from ERA5 it shows that ECHAM6 is able to realistically simulate the regime structures. Both ECHAM6 sea ice sensitivity experiments exhibit similar regime frequency changes. Consistent with tendencies found in ERA5, a more frequent occurrence of a Scandinavian blocking pattern in midwinter is for instance detected under future sea ice conditions in the sensitivity experiments. Changes in occurrence frequencies of circulation regimes in summer season are however barely detected. After identifying suitable regime storylines for the occurrence of European temperature extremes in winter, the previously detected regime frequency changes are used to quantify dynamically and thermodynamically driven contributions to sea ice-induced changes in European winter temperature extremes. It is for instance shown how the preferred occurrence of a Scandinavian blocking regime under low sea ice conditions dynamically contributes to more frequent midwinter cold extreme occurrences over Central Europe. In addition, a reduced occurrence frequency of a Atlantic trough regime is linked to reduced winter warm extremes over Mid-Europe. Furthermore, it is demonstrated how the overall thermodynamical warming effect due to sea ice loss can result in less (more) frequent winter cold (warm) extremes, and consequently counteracts the dynamically induced changes. Compared to winter season, circulation regimes in summer are less suitable as storylines for the occurrence of summer heat extremes. Therefore, an approach based on circulation analogues is employed in order to quantify thermodyamically and dynamically driven contributions to sea ice-induced changes of summer heat extremes over three different European sectors. Reduced occurrences of blockings over Western Russia are detected in the ECHAM6 sea ice sensitivity experiments; however, arguing for dynamically and thermodynamically induced contributions to changes in summer heat extremes remains rather challenging.}, language = {en} } @misc{MannRahmstorfKornhuberetal.2018, author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Petri, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {994}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44641}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50\% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.}, language = {en} }