@phdthesis{Kox2018,
  author    = {Kox, Thomas},
  title     = {Perception and use of uncertainty in severe weather warnings},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411541},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {154},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Uncertainty is an essential part of atmospheric processes and thus inherent to weather forecasts. Nevertheless, weather forecasts and warnings are still predominately issued as deterministic (yes or no) forecasts, although research suggests that providing weather forecast users with additional information about the forecast uncertainty can enhance the preparation of mitigation measures. Communicating forecast uncertainty would allow for a provision of information on possible future events at an earlier time. The desired benefit is to enable the users to start with preparatory protective action at an earlier stage of time based on the their own risk assessment and decision threshold. But not all users have the same threshold for taking action. In the course of the project WEXICOM ('Wetterwarnungen: Von der Extremereignis-Information zu Kommunikation und Handlung') funded by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), three studies were conducted between the years 2012 and 2016 to reveal how weather forecasts and warnings are reflected in weather-related decision-making. The studies asked which factors influence the perception of forecasts and the decision to take protective action and how forecast users make sense of probabilistic information and the additional lead time. In a first exploratory study conducted in 2012, members of emergency services in Germany were asked questions about how weather warnings are communicated to professional endusers in the emergency community and how the warnings are converted into mitigation measures. A large number of open questions were selected to identify new topics of interest. The questions covered topics like users' confidence in forecasts, their understanding of probabilistic information as well as their lead time and decision thresholds to start with preparatory mitigation measures. Results show that emergency service personnel generally have a good sense of uncertainty inherent in weather forecasts. Although no single probability threshold could be identified for organisations to start with preparatory mitigation measures, it became clear that emergency services tend to avoid forecasts based on low probabilities as a basis for their decisions. Based on this findings, a second study conducted with residents of Berlin in 2014 further investigated the question of decision thresholds. The survey questions related to the topics of the perception of and prior experience with severe weather, trustworthiness of forecasters and confidence in weather forecasts, and socio-demographic and social-economic characteristics. Within the questionnaire a scenario was created to determine individual decision thresholds and see whether subgroups of the sample lead to different thresholds. The results show that people's willingness to act tends to be higher and decision thresholds tend to be lower if the expected weather event is more severe or the property at risk is of higher value. Several influencing factors of risk perception have significant effects such as education, housing status and ability to act, whereas socio-demographic determinants alone are often not sufficient to fully grasp risk perception and protection behaviour. Parallel to the quantitative studies, an interview study was conducted with 27 members of German civil protection between 2012 and 2016. The results show that the latest developments in (numerical) weather forecasting do not necessarily fit the current practice of German emergency services. These practices are mostly carried out on alarms and ground truth in a reactive manner rather than on anticipation based on prognosis or forecasts. As the potential consequences rather than the event characteristics determine protective action, the findings support the call and need for impact-based warnings. Forecasters will rely on impact data and need to learn the users' understanding of impact. Therefore, it is recommended to enhance weather communication not only by improving computer models and observation tools, but also by focusing on the aspects of communication and collaboration. Using information about uncertainty demands awareness about and acceptance of the limits of knowledge, hence, the capabilities of the forecaster to anticipate future developments of the atmosphere and the capabilities of the user to make sense of this information.},
  language  = {en}
}