@phdthesis{Willner2018,
  author    = {Willner, Sven N.},
  title     = {Global economic response to flood damages under climate change},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {v, 247},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17\% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{vanKleunenEsslPergletal.2018,
  author    = {van Kleunen, Mark and Essl, Franz and Pergl, Jan and Brundu, Giuseppe and Carboni, Marta and Dullinger, Stefan and Early, Regan and Gonzalez-Moreno, Pablo and Groom, Quentin J. M. and Hulme, Philip E. and Kueffer, Christoph and K{\"u}hn, Ingolf and Maguas, Cristina and Maurel, Noelie and Novoa, Ana and Parepa, Madalin and Pysek, Petr and Seebens, Hanno and Tanner, Rob and Touza, Julia and Verbrugge, Laura and Weber, Ewald and Dawson, Wayne and Kreft, Holger and Weigelt, Patrick and Winter, Marten and Klonner, Guenther and Talluto, Matthew V. and Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina},
  title     = {The changing role of ornamental horticulture in alien plant invasions},
  series = {Biological reviews},
  volume    = {93},
  journal   = {Biological reviews},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1464-7931},
  doi       = {10.1111/brv.12402},
  pages     = {1421 -- 1437},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The number of alien plants escaping from cultivation into native ecosystems is increasing steadily. We provide an overview of the historical, contemporary and potential future roles of ornamental horticulture in plant invasions. We show that currently at least 75\% and 93\% of the global naturalised alien flora is grown in domestic and botanical gardens, respectively. Species grown in gardens also have a larger naturalised range than those that are not. After the Middle Ages, particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries, a global trade network in plants emerged. Since then, cultivated alien species also started to appear in the wild more frequently than non-cultivated aliens globally, particularly during the 19th century. Horticulture still plays a prominent role in current plant introduction, and the monetary value of live-plant imports in different parts of the world is steadily increasing. Historically, botanical gardens - an important component of horticulture - played a major role in displaying, cultivating and distributing new plant discoveries. While the role of botanical gardens in the horticultural supply chain has declined, they are still a significant link, with one-third of institutions involved in retail-plant sales and horticultural research. However, botanical gardens have also become more dependent on commercial nurseries as plant sources, particularly in North America. Plants selected for ornamental purposes are not a random selection of the global flora, and some of the plant characteristics promoted through horticulture, such as fast growth, also promote invasion. Efforts to breed non-invasive plant cultivars are still rare. Socio-economical, technological, and environmental changes will lead to novel patterns of plant introductions and invasion opportunities for the species that are already cultivated. We describe the role that horticulture could play in mediating these changes. We identify current research challenges, and call for more research efforts on the past and current role of horticulture in plant invasions. This is required to develop science-based regulatory frameworks to prevent further plant invasions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018,
  author    = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.},
  title     = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {634},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42462},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424629},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{TrietDungMerzetal.2018,
  author    = {Triet, Nguyen Van Khanh and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Merz, Bruno and Apel, Heiko},
  title     = {Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {931},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44603},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446032},
  pages     = {2859 -- 2876},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{TapeJonesArpetal.2018,
  author    = {Tape, Ken D. and Jones, Benjamin M. and Arp, Christopher D. and Nitze, Ingmar and Grosse, Guido},
  title     = {Tundra be dammed},
  series = {Global change biology},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {Global change biology},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1354-1013},
  doi       = {10.1111/gcb.14332},
  pages     = {4478 -- 4488},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293km(2)) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{Steiglechner2018,
  type      = {Master Thesis},
  author    = {Steiglechner, Peter},
  title     = {Estimating global warming from anthropogenic heat emissions},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-49886},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498866},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The forcing from the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF), i.e. the dissipation of primary energy consumed by the human civilisation, produces a direct climate warming. Today, the globally averaged AHF is negligibly small compared to the indirect forcing from greenhouse gas emissions. Locally or regionally, though, it has a significant impact. Historical observations show a constant exponential growth of worldwide energy production. A continuation of this trend might be fueled or even amplified by the exploration of new carbon-free energy sources like fusion power. In such a scenario, the impacts of the AHF become a relevant factor for anthropogenic post-greenhouse gas climate change on the global scale, as well. This master thesis aims at estimating the climate impacts of such a growing AHF forcing. In the first part of this work, the AHF is built into simple and conceptual, zero- and one-dimensional Energy Balance Models (EBMs), providing quick order of magnitude estimations of the temperature impact. In the one-dimensional EBM, the ice-albedo feedback from enhanced ice melting due to the AHF increases the temperature impact significantly compared to the zero-dimensional EBM. Additionally, the forcing is built into a climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α. This allows for the investigation of the effect of localised AHF and gives further insights into the impact of the AHF on processes like the ocean heat uptake, sea ice and snow pattern changes and the ocean circulation. The global mean temperature response from the AHF today is of the order of 0.010 - 0.016 K in all reasonable model configurations tested. A transient tenfold increase of this forcing heats up the Earth System additionally by roughly 0.1 - 0.2 K in the presented models. Further growth can also affect the tipping probability of certain climate elements. Most renewable energy sources do not or only partially contribute to the AHF forcing as the energy from these sources dissipates anyway. Hence, the transition to a (carbon-free) renewable energy mix, which, in particular, does not rely on nuclear power, eliminates the local and global climate impacts from the increasing AHF forcing, independent of the growth of energy production.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SteffenRoeckstromRichardsonetal.2018,
  author    = {Steffen, Will and R{\"o}ckstrom, Johan and Richardson, Katherine and Lenton, Timothy M. and Folke, Carl and Liverman, Diana and Summerhayes, Colin P. and Barnosky, Anthony D. and Cornell, Sarah E. and Crucifix, Michel and Donges, Jonathan Friedemann and Fetzer, Ingo and Lade, Steven J. and Scheffer, Marten and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  title     = {Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {115},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {33},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1810141115},
  pages     = {8252 -- 8259},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Smith2018,
  author    = {Smith, Taylor},
  title     = {Decadal changes in the snow regime of High Mountain Asia, 1987-2016},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407120},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiii, 142},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {More than a billion people rely on water from rivers sourced in High Mountain Asia (HMA), a significant portion of which is derived from snow and glacier melt. Rural communities are heavily dependent on the consistency of runoff, and are highly vulnerable to shifts in their local environment brought on by climate change. Despite this dependence, the impacts of climate change in HMA remain poorly constrained due to poor process understanding, complex terrain, and insufficiently dense in-situ measurements. HMA's glaciers contain more frozen water than any region outside of the poles. Their extensive retreat is a highly visible and much studied marker of regional and global climate change. However, in many catchments, snow and snowmelt represent a much larger fraction of the yearly water budget than glacial meltwaters. Despite their importance, climate-related changes in HMA's snow resources have not been well studied. Changes in the volume and distribution of snowpack have complex and extensive impacts on both local and global climates. Eurasian snow cover has been shown to impact the strength and direction of the Indian Summer Monsoon -- which is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Indian Subcontinent -- by modulating earth-surface heating. Shifts in the timing of snowmelt have been shown to limit the productivity of major rangelands, reduce streamflow, modify sediment transport, and impact the spread of vector-borne diseases. However, a large-scale regional study of climate impacts on snow resources had yet to be undertaken. Passive Microwave (PM) remote sensing is a well-established empirical method of studying snow resources over large areas. Since 1987, there have been consistent daily global PM measurements which can be used to derive an estimate of snow depth, and hence snow-water equivalent (SWE) -- the amount of water stored in snowpack. The SWE estimation algorithms were originally developed for flat and even terrain -- such as the Russian and Canadian Arctic -- and have rarely been used in complex terrain such as HMA. This dissertation first examines factors present in HMA that could impact the reliability of SWE estimates. Forest cover, absolute snow depth, long-term average wind speeds, and hillslope angle were found to be the strongest controls on SWE measurement reliability. While forest density and snow depth are factors accounted for in modern SWE retrieval algorithms, wind speed and hillslope angle are not. Despite uncertainty in absolute SWE measurements and differences in the magnitude of SWE retrievals between sensors, single-instrument SWE time series were found to be internally consistent and suitable for trend analysis. Building on this finding, this dissertation tracks changes in SWE across HMA using a statistical decomposition technique. An aggregate decrease in SWE was found (10.6 mm/yr), despite large spatial and seasonal heterogeneities. Winter SWE increased in almost half of HMA, despite general negative trends throughout the rest of the year. The elevation distribution of these negative trends indicates that while changes in SWE have likely impacted glaciers in the region, climate change impacts on these two pieces of the cryosphere are somewhat distinct. Following the discussion of relative changes in SWE, this dissertation explores changes in the timing of the snowmelt season in HMA using a newly developed algorithm. The algorithm is shown to accurately track the onset and end of the snowmelt season (70\% within 5 days of a control dataset, 89\% within 10). Using a 29-year time series, changes in the onset, end, and duration of snowmelt are examined. While nearly the entirety of HMA has experienced an earlier end to the snowmelt season, large regions of HMA have seen a later start to the snowmelt season. Snowmelt periods have also decreased in almost all of HMA, indicating that the snowmelt season is generally shortening and ending earlier across HMA. By examining shifts in both the spatio-temporal distribution of SWE and the timing of the snowmelt season across HMA, we provide a detailed accounting of changes in HMA's snow resources. The overall trend in HMA is towards less SWE storage and a shorter snowmelt season. However, long-term and regional trends conceal distinct seasonal, temporal, and spatial heterogeneity, indicating that changes in snow resources are strongly controlled by local climate and topography, and that inter-annual variability plays a significant role in HMA's snow regime.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PerringBernhardtRoemermannBaetenetal.2018,
  author    = {Perring, Michael P. and Bernhardt-Roemermann, Markus and Baeten, Lander and Midolo, Gabriele and Blondeel, Haben and Depauw, Leen and Landuyt, Dries and Maes, Sybryn L. and De Lombaerde, Emiel and Caron, Maria Mercedes and Vellend, Mark and Brunet, Joerg and Chudomelova, Marketa and Decocq, Guillaume and Diekmann, Martin and Dirnboeck, Thomas and Doerfler, Inken and Durak, Tomasz and De Frenne, Pieter and Gilliam, Frank S. and Hedl, Radim and Heinken, Thilo and Hommel, Patrick and Jaroszewicz, Bogdan and Kirby, Keith J. and Kopecky, Martin and Lenoir, Jonathan and Li, Daijiang and Malis, Frantisek and Mitchell, Fraser J. G. and Naaf, Tobias and Newman, Miles and Petrik, Petr and Reczynska, Kamila and Schmidt, Wolfgang and Standovar, Tibor and Swierkosz, Krzysztof and Van Calster, Hans and Vild, Ondrej and Wagner, Eva Rosa and Wulf, Monika and Verheyen, Kris},
  title     = {Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies},
  series = {Global change biology},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {Global change biology},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1354-1013},
  doi       = {10.1111/gcb.14030},
  pages     = {1722 -- 1740},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites' contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{PearceOezkulaGreeneetal.2018,
  author    = {Pearce, Warren and {\"O}zkula, Suay M. and Greene, Amanda K. and Teeling, Lauren and Bansard, Jennifer S. and Omena, Janna Joceli and Rabello, Elaine Teixeira},
  title     = {Visual cross-platform analysis},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {2},
  issn      = {1867-5808},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51553},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515539},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Analysis of social media using digital methods is a flourishing approach. However, the relatively easy availability of data collected via platform application programming interfaces has arguably led to the predominance of single-platform research of social media. Such research has also privileged the role of text in social media analysis, as a form of data that is more readily gathered and searchable than images. In this paper, we challenge both of these prevailing forms of social media research by outlining a methodology for visual cross-platform analysis (VCPA), defined as the study of still and moving images across two or more social media platforms. Our argument contains three steps. First, we argue that cross-platform analysis addresses a gap in research methods in that it acknowledges the interplay between a social phenomenon under investigation and the medium within which it is being researched, thus illuminating the different affordances and cultures of web platforms. Second, we build on the literature on multimodal communication and platform vernacular to provide a rationale for incorporating the visual into cross-platform analysis. Third, we reflect on an experimental cross-platform analysis of images within social media posts (n = 471,033) used to communicate climate change to advance different modes of macro- and meso-levels of analysis that are natively visual: image-text networks, image plots and composite images. We conclude by assessing the research pathways opened up by VCPA, delineating potential contributions to empirical research and theory and the potential impact on practitioners of social media communication.},
  language  = {en}
}