@article{TotzTzipermanCoumouetal.2017, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Tziperman, Eli and Coumou, Dim and Pfeiffer, Karl and Cohen, Judah}, title = {Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2017GL075674}, pages = {12418 -- 12426}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.}, language = {en} } @article{RomanowskyHandorfJaiseretal.2019, author = {Romanowsky, Erik and Handorf, D{\"o}rthe and Jaiser, Ralf and Wohltmann, Ingo and Dorn, Wolfgang and Ukita, Jinro and Cohen, Judah and Dethloff, Klaus and Rex, Markus}, title = {The role of stratospheric ozone for Arctic-midlatitude linkages}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, journal = {Scientific reports}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-43823-1}, pages = {7}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Arctic warming was more pronounced than warming in midlatitudes in the last decades making this region a hotspot of climate change. Associated with this, a rapid decline of sea-ice extent and a decrease of its thickness has been observed. Sea-ice retreat allows for an increased transport of heat and momentum from the ocean up to the tropo- and stratosphere by enhanced upward propagation of planetary-scale atmospheric waves. In the upper atmosphere, these waves deposit the momentum transported, disturbing the stratospheric polar vortex, which can lead to a breakdown of this circulation with the potential to also significantly impact the troposphere in mid- to late-winter and early spring. Therefore, an accurate representation of stratospheric processes in climate models is necessary to improve the understanding of the impact of retreating sea ice on the atmospheric circulation. By modeling the atmospheric response to a prescribed decline in Arctic sea ice, we show that including interactive stratospheric ozone chemistry in atmospheric model calculations leads to an improvement in tropo-stratospheric interactions compared to simulations without interactive chemistry. This suggests that stratospheric ozone chemistry is important for the understanding of sea ice related impacts on atmospheric dynamics.}, language = {en} } @article{KretschmerCohenMatthiasetal.2018, author = {Kretschmer, Marlene and Cohen, Judah and Matthias, Vivien and Runge, Jakob and Coumou, Dim}, title = {The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America}, series = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science}, volume = {1}, journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2397-3722}, doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4}, pages = {10}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.}, language = {en} } @article{KretschmerCoumouAgeletal.2018, author = {Kretschmer, Marlene and Coumou, Dim and Agel, Laurie and Barlow, Mathew and Tziperman, Eli and Cohen, Judah}, title = {More-Persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes}, series = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, volume = {99}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0003-0007}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1}, pages = {49 -- 60}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The extratropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, confining the coldest temperatures at high latitudes. The jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, is predominantly zonal and centered around the pole; however, it does exhibit large variability in wind speed and location. Previous studies showed that a weak stratospheric polar vortex can lead to cold-air outbreaks in the midlatitudes, but the exact relationships and mechanisms are unclear. Particularly, it is unclear whether stratospheric variability has contributed to the observed anomalous cooling trends in midlatitude Eurasia. Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid- to late winter (January and February) has increased, which was accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in midlatitude Eurasia. For this region, 60\% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, that is, since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number that increases to almost 80\% when El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well.}, language = {en} }