@article{ZoellerHolschneiderHainzletal.2014, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias and Hainzl, Sebastian and Zhuang, Jiancang}, title = {The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {104}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {2}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120130103}, pages = {769 -- 779}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20\% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Zibulski2014, author = {Zibulski, Romy}, title = {Taxonomic composition and biochemical and isotopic characteristics of North-Siberian mosses and their application to the palaeoecological reconstruction of tundra polygon development}, pages = {ii, 127}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Wienhoefer2014, author = {Wienh{\"o}fer, Jan}, title = {On the role of structure-process interactions in controlling terrestrial systems : an exemplare of hillslope hydrology and a slow-moving landslide}, address = {Potsdam}, pages = {135 S.}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{SchildgenYildirimCosentinoetal.2014, author = {Schildgen, Taylor F. and Yildirim, C. and Cosentino, Domenico and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Linking slab break-off, Hellenic trench retreat, and uplift of the Central and Eastern Anatolian plateaus}, series = {Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks}, volume = {128}, journal = {Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-8252}, doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.11.006}, pages = {147 -- 168}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{RofesBastiaanseMartinezFerreiro2014, author = {Rofes, Adria and Bastiaanse, Roelien and Martinez-Ferreiro, Silvia}, title = {Conditional and future tense impairment in non-fluent aphasia}, series = {Aphasiology : an international, interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {28}, journal = {Aphasiology : an international, interdisciplinary journal}, number = {1}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0268-7038}, doi = {10.1080/02687038.2013.850650}, pages = {99 -- 115}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Background: Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional tense (e.g., if the man had had time, he would have...) refers to the past and the Simple conditional tense refers to the future (e.g., if the man had time, he would...). These two tenses refer to an event that may happen (irrealis).Aims: We fill in the gap of the conditional tense and provide further data to study contrasts in verb inflection for time reference. We predict that verb forms that refer to an irrealis past event (Periphrastic conditional) are more impaired than forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also predict that there are no differences between verb forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also assessed whether problems in time reference extend to individuals with non-fluent aphasia that are not typical agrammatic Broca aphasia.Methods \& Procedures: A sentence completion task that included 60 sentences (20 per type) of equal length in a Conditional structure (if-sentences) was designed. We tested three sentence types: Periphrastic conditional, Simple conditional and Future. The task was administered to nine participants with non-fluent aphasia and nine age-matched non-brain-damaged participants.Outcomes \& Results: The Control group scored at ceiling on the three sentence types. Participants with non-fluent aphasia were most impaired in the production of the Periphrastic conditional as compared with the Simple conditional and the Future.Conclusions: When irrealis event times are compared, past events are more impaired than future events. These results can be explained by a deficit in time reference as predicted by the PADILIH. Our data reveal that the predictions of the PADILIH also hold for non-fluent speakers who have been diagnosed with Transcortical motor aphasia.}, language = {en} } @article{KoernerPfestorfMayetal.2014, author = {Koerner, Katrin and Pfestorf, Hans and May, Felix and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Modelling the effect of belowground herbivory on grassland diversity}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {273}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.025}, pages = {79 -- 85}, year = {2014}, abstract = {One challenging question in ecology is to explain species coexistence in highly diverse temperate grassland plant communities. Within this context, a clear understanding of the consequences of belowground herbivory for the composition and the diversity of plant communities continue to elude ecologists. The existing body of empirical evidence reveals partly contradictory responses ranging from negative to neutral or positive effects of belowground herbivory on grassland diversity. To reveal possible mechanistic grounds for these discrepancies, we extended an existing simulation model of grassland communities based on plant functional types to include root herbivory. This enabled us to test the effects of different feeding modes that represent different herbivore guilds. For each belowground feeding mode, we systematically varied the intensity and frequency of herbivory events for three different levels of soil fertility both in the presence and absence of additional aboveground grazing. Our modelling approach successfully reproduced various empirically reported diversity responses, merely on the basis of the different feeding modes. Different levels of plant resource availability affected the strength, but not the direction of the belowground herbivory effects. The only exception was the scenario with low resource levels, which promoted neutral (neither positive nor negative) diversity responses for some of the feeding modes. Interestingly, aboveground biomass production was largely unaffected by diversity changes induced by belowground herbivory except in the case of selective feeding modes that were related to specific functional traits. Our findings provide possible explanations for the broad spectrum of belowground herbivory effects on plant community diversity. Furthermore, the presented theoretical modelling approach provides a suitable conceptual framework to better understand the complex linkage between plant community and belowground herbivory dynamics.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Kaiser2014, author = {Kaiser, Bj{\"o}rn Onno}, title = {Heat transport processes within the Northeast German basin}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {113}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{JackischZeheSamaniegoetal.2014, author = {Jackisch, Conrad and Zehe, Erwin and Samaniego, Luis and Singh, Anupam K.}, title = {An experiment to gauge an ungauged catchment: rapid data assessment and eco-hydrological modelling in a data-scarce rural catchment}, series = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques}, volume = {59}, journal = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques}, number = {12}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0262-6667}, doi = {10.1080/02626667.2013.870662}, pages = {2103 -- 2125}, year = {2014}, abstract = {We conducted a PUB (predictions in ungauged basins) experiment looking at hydrology and crop dynamics in the semi-arid rural Mod catchment in India. The experiment was motivated by the aims (a) to develop a coupled eco-hydrological model capable of analysing land-use strategies concerning crop water need, erosion protection, crop yield and resistivity against droughts and floods, and (b) to assess the feasibility of a strategy for collecting the necessary data in a data-scarce region. Our experiment combines parsimonious data assessment and eco-hydrological model coupling at the lower mesoscale. Linking bottom-up sampling of functionally representative soil classes and top-down regionalization based on spectral properties of the same resulted in a comprehensive distributed data basis for the model. A clear focus on the dominating processes and the catena as the organizing landscape element in the given environmental setting enabled this. We employed the WASA (Water Availability in Semi-Arid environments) model for uncalibrated process-based water balance modelling and integrated a crop simulation subroutine based on the SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model to account for crop dynamics, feedbacks and yield estimation. While we found the data assessment strategy and the hydrological model application largely feasible, in terms of its accounting for scale, processes and model concepts, the simulation of feedbacks with crops was problematic. Contributing to the PUB issue, more general conclusions are drawn concerning spatially-distributed structural information and uncalibrated modelling. [GRAPHICS] Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor F. Hattermann}, language = {en} } @article{GoergSpangenbergTekkenetal.2014, author = {Goerg, Christoph and Spangenberg, Joachim H. and Tekken, Vera and Burkhard, Benjamin and Da Thanh Truong, and Escalada, Monina and Heong, Kong Luen and Arida, Gertrudo and Marquez, Leonardo V. and Bustamante, Jesus Victor and Ho Van Chien, and Klotzbuecher, Thimo and Marxen, Anika and Nguyen Hung Man, and Nguyen Van Sinh, and Villareal, Sylvia (Bong) and Settele, Josef}, title = {Engaging local knowledge in biodiversity research: experiences from large inter- and transdisciplinary projects}, series = {Interdisciplinary science reviews}, volume = {39}, journal = {Interdisciplinary science reviews}, number = {4}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {0308-0188}, doi = {10.1179/0308018814Z.00000000095}, pages = {323 -- 341}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The management of biodiversity represents a research topic that needs to involve not only several (sub-) disciplines from the natural sciences but, in particular, also the social sciences and humanities. Furthermore, over the last couple of years, the need for the integration of other kinds of knowledge (experience based or indigenous knowledge) is increasingly acknowledged. For instance, the incorporation of such knowledge is indispensable for place-based approaches to sustainable land management, which require that the specific ecological and social context is addressed. However, desirable as it may be, such an engagement of the holders of tacit knowledge is not easy to achieve. It demands reconciling well-established scientific procedural standards with the implicit or explicit criteria of relevance that apply in civil society a process that typically causes severe tensions and comes up against both habitual as well as institutional constraints. The difficulty of managing such tensions is amplified particularly in large integrated projects and represents a major challenge to project management. At the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, several integrated research projects have been conducted over the past years in which experience has been gained with these specific challenges. This paper presents some of the lessons learned from large integrated projects, with an emphasis on project design and management structure. At the centre of the present contribution are experiences gained in the coordination and management of LEGATO (LEGATO stands for Land-use intensity and Ecological EnGineering - Assessment Tools for risks and Opportunities in irrigated rice based production systems, see www.legato-project.net), an ongoing, large-scale, inter- and transdisciplinary research project dealing with the management of irrigated rice landscapes in Southeast Asia. In this project, local expertise on traditional production systems is absolutely crucial but needs to be integrated with natural and social science research to identify future-proof land management systems.}, language = {en} } @article{BoraScherbaumKuehnetal.2014, author = {Bora, Sanjay Singh and Scherbaum, Frank and K{\"u}hn, Nicolas and Stafford, Peter}, title = {Fourier spectral- and duration models for the generation of response spectra adjustable to different source-, propagation-, and site conditions}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {12}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-013-9482-z}, pages = {467 -- 493}, year = {2014}, abstract = {One of the major challenges related with the current practice in seismic hazard studies is the adjustment of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to different seismological environments. We believe that the key to accommodating differences in regional seismological attributes of a ground motion model lies in the Fourier spectrum. In the present study, we attempt to explore a new approach for the development of response spectral GMPEs, which is fully consistent with linear system theory when it comes to adjustment issues. This approach consists of developing empirical prediction equations for Fourier spectra and for a particular duration estimate of ground motion which is tuned to optimize the fit between response spectra obtained through the random vibration theory framework and the classical way. The presented analysis for the development of GMPEs is performed on the recently compiled reference database for seismic ground motion in Europe (RESORCE-2012). Although, the main motivation for the presented approach is the adjustability and the use of the corresponding model to generate data driven host-to-target conversions, even as a standalone response spectral model it compares reasonably well with the GMPEs of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1-53, 2005), Akkar and Bommer (Seismol Res Lett 81(2):195-206, 2010) and Akkar and Cagnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(6):2978-2995, 2010).}, language = {en} }