@article{SchadNicenboimBuerkneretal.2022, author = {Schad, Daniel and Nicenboim, Bruno and B{\"u}rkner, Paul-Christian and Betancourt, Michael and Vasishth, Shravan}, title = {Workflow techniques for the robust use of bayes factors}, series = {Psychological methods}, volume = {28}, journal = {Psychological methods}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Psychological Association}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1082-989X}, doi = {10.1037/met0000472}, pages = {1404 -- 1426}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose between hypotheses. While Bayes factors provide an immediate approach to hypothesis testing, they are highly sensitive to details of the data/model assumptions and it's unclear whether the details of the computational implementation (such as bridge sampling) are unbiased for complex analyses. Hem, we study how Bayes factors misbehave under different conditions. This includes a study of errors in the estimation of Bayes factors; the first-ever use of simulation-based calibration to test the accuracy and bias of Bayes factor estimates using bridge sampling; a study of the stability of Bayes factors against different MCMC draws and sampling variation in the data; and a look at the variability of decisions based on Bayes factors using a utility function. We outline a Bayes factor workflow that researchers can use to study whether Bayes factors are robust for their individual analysis. Reproducible code is available from haps://osf.io/y354c/.
Translational Abstract
In psychology and related areas, scientific hypotheses are commonly tested by asking questions like "is [some] effect present or absent." Such hypothesis testing is most often carried out using frequentist null hypothesis significance testing (NIIST). The NHST procedure is very simple: It usually returns a p-value, which is then used to make binary decisions like "the effect is present/abscnt." For example, it is common to see studies in the media that draw simplistic conclusions like "coffee causes cancer," or "coffee reduces the chances of geuing cancer." However, a powerful and more nuanced alternative approach exists: Bayes factors. Bayes factors have many advantages over NHST. However, for the complex statistical models that arc commonly used for data analysis today, computing Bayes factors is not at all a simple matter. In this article, we discuss the main complexities associated with computing Bayes factors. This is the first article to provide a detailed workflow for understanding and computing Bayes factors in complex statistical models. The article provides a statistically more nuanced way to think about hypothesis testing than the overly simplistic tendency to declare effects as being "present" or "absent".}, language = {en} } @article{SchadVasishth2022, author = {Schad, Daniel and Vasishth, Shravan}, title = {The posterior probability of a null hypothesis given a statistically significant result}, series = {The quantitative methods for psychology}, volume = {18}, journal = {The quantitative methods for psychology}, number = {2}, publisher = {University of Montreal, Department of Psychology}, address = {Montreal}, issn = {1913-4126}, doi = {10.20982/tqmp.18.2.p011}, pages = {130 -- 141}, year = {2022}, abstract = {When researchers carry out a null hypothesis significance test, it is tempting to assume that a statistically significant result lowers Prob(H0), the probability of the null hypothesis being true. Technically, such a statement is meaningless for various reasons: e.g., the null hypothesis does not have a probability associated with it. However, it is possible to relax certain assumptions to compute the posterior probability Prob(H0) under repeated sampling. We show in a step-by-step guide that the intuitively appealing belief, that Prob(H0) is low when significant results have been obtained under repeated sampling, is in general incorrect and depends greatly on: (a) the prior probability of the null being true; (b) type-I error rate, (c) type-II error rate, and (d) replication of a result. Through step-by-step simulations using open-source code in the R System of Statistical Computing, we show that uncertainty about the null hypothesis being true often remains high despite a significant result. To help the reader develop intuitions about this common misconception, we provide a Shiny app (https://danielschad.shinyapps.io/probnull/). We expect that this tutorial will help researchers better understand and judge results from null hypothesis significance tests.}, language = {en} } @article{SchefflerBrandtdelaFuenteetal.2022, author = {Scheffler, Tatjana and Brandt, Lasse and de la Fuente, Marie and Nenchev, Ivan}, title = {Stimulus data and experimental design for a self-paced reading study on emoji-word substitutions}, series = {Data in Brief}, volume = {43}, journal = {Data in Brief}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2352-3409}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2022.108399}, pages = {7}, year = {2022}, abstract = {This data paper presents the experimental design and stimuli from an online self-paced reading study on the processing of emojis substituting lexically ambiguous nouns. We recorded reading times for the target ambiguous nouns and for emojis depicting either the intended target referent or a contextually inappropriate homophonous noun. Furthermore, we recorded comprehension accuracy, demographics and a self-assessment of the participants' emoji usage frequency. The data includes all stimuli used, the raw data, the full JavaScript code for the online experiment, as well as Python and R code for the data analysis. We believe that our dataset may give important insights related to the comprehension mechanisms involved in the cognitive processing of emojis. For interpretation and discussion of the experiment, please see the original article entitled "The processing of emoji-word substitutions: A self-paced-reading study".}, language = {en} } @article{SchmandtNazziNew2022, author = {Schmandt, Silvana and Nazzi, Thierry and New, Boris}, title = {Consonant, vowel and lexical neighbourhood processing during word recognition: new evidence using the sandwich priming technique}, series = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, volume = {37}, journal = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, number = {9}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2327-3798}, doi = {10.1080/23273798.2022.2046115}, pages = {1115 -- 1130}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Studies on French adults using a written lexical decision task with masked priming, in which targets were more primed by consonant- (jalu-JOLI) than vowel-related (vobi-JOLI) primes, support the proposal that consonants have more weight than vowels in lexical processing. This study examines the phonological and/or lexical nature of this consonant bias (C-bias), using a sandwich priming task in which a brief presentation of the target (pre-prime) precedes the prime-target sequence, a manipulation blocking lexical neighbourhood effects. Results from three experiments (varying pre-prime/prime durations) show consistent C-priming and no significant V-priming at earlier and later processing stages (50 or 66 ms primes). Yet, a joint analysis reveals a small V-priming, while confirming a significant consonant advantage. This demonstrates the contribution of the phonological level to the C-bias. Second, differences in performance comparing the classic versus sandwich priming task also establish a contribution of lexical neighbourhood inhibition effects to the C-bias.}, language = {en} } @article{SchoknechtRoehmSchlesewskyetal.2022, author = {Schoknecht, Pia and Roehm, Dietmar and Schlesewsky, Matthias and Bornkessel-Schlesewsky, Ina}, title = {The interaction of predictive processing and similarity-based retrieval interference}, series = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, volume = {37}, journal = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, number = {7}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2327-3798}, doi = {10.1080/23273798.2022.2026421}, pages = {883 -- 901}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Language processing requires memory retrieval to integrate current input with previous context and making predictions about upcoming input. We propose that prediction and retrieval are two sides of the same coin, i.e. functionally the same, as they both activate memory representations. Under this assumption, memory retrieval and prediction should interact: Retrieval interference can only occur at a word that triggers retrieval and a fully predicted word would not do that. The present study investigated the proposed interaction with event-related potentials (ERPs) during the processing of sentence pairs in German. Predictability was measured via cloze probability. Memory retrieval was manipulated via the position of a distractor inducing proactive or retroactive similarity-based interference. Linear mixed model analyses provided evidence for the hypothesised interaction in a broadly distributed negativity, which we discuss in relation to the interference ERP literature. Our finding supports the proposal that memory retrieval and prediction are functionally the same.}, language = {en} } @article{SkopeteasVerhoevenFanselow2022, author = {Skopeteas, Stavros and Verhoeven, Elisabeth and Fanselow, Gisbert}, title = {Discontinuous noun phrases in Yucatec Maya}, series = {Journal of linguistics : JL / publ. for the Linguistics Association of Great Britain}, volume = {58}, journal = {Journal of linguistics : JL / publ. for the Linguistics Association of Great Britain}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {New York}, issn = {0022-2267}, doi = {10.1017/S0022226720000419}, pages = {609 -- 648}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Languages differ in whether or not they allow discontinuous noun phrases. If they do, they further vary in the ways the nominal projections interact with the available syntactic operations. Yucatec Maya has two left-peripheral configurations that differ syntactically: a preverbal position for foci or wh-elements that is filled in by movement, and the possibility to adjoin topics at the highest clausal layer. These two structural options are reflected in different ways of the formation of discontinuous patterns. Subextraction from nominal projections to the focus position yielding discontinuous NPs is possible, but subject to several restrictions. It observes conditions on extraction domains, and does not apply to the left branch of nominal structures. The topic position also appears to license discontinuity, typically involving a non-referential nominal expression as the topic and quantifiers/adjectives that form an elliptical nominal projection within the clause proper. Such constructions can involve several morphological and syntactic mismatches between their parts that are excluded for continuous noun phrases, and they are not sensitive to syntactic island restrictions. Thus, in a strict sense, discontinuities involving the topic position are only apparent, because the construction involves two independent nominal projections that are semantically linked.}, language = {en} } @article{SotiropoulouGafos2022, author = {Sotiropoulou, Stavroula and Gafos, Adamantios I.}, title = {Phonetic indices of syllabic organization in German stop-lateral clusters}, series = {Laboratory Phonology}, volume = {13}, journal = {Laboratory Phonology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Open Library of humanities}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1868-6346}, doi = {10.16995/labphon.6440}, pages = {42}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Using articulatory data from five German speakers, we study how segmental sequences under different syllabic organizations respond to perturbations of phonetic parameters in the segments that compose them. Target words contained stop-lateral sequences /bl, gl, kl, pl/ in word-initial and cross-word contexts and were embedded in carrier phrases with different prosodic boundaries, i.e., no phrase boundary versus an utterance phrase boundary preceded the target word in the case of word-initial clusters, or separated the consonants in the case of cross-word sequences. For word-initial cluster (CCV) onsets, we find that increasing C1 stop duration or the lag between two consonants leads to earlier vowel initiation and reduced local timing stability across CV, CCV. Furthermore, as the inter-consonantal lag increases, C2 duration decreases. In contrast, for cross-word C\#CV sequences, increasing inter-consonantal lag does not lead to earlier vowel initiation and robust local timing stability is maintained across CV, C\#CV. In other words, in CCV sequences within words, local perturbations to segments have effects that ripple through the rest of the sequence. Instead, in cross-word C\#CV sequences, local perturbations stay local. Overall, the findings indicate that the effects of phonetic perturbations on coordination patterns depend on the syllabic organization superimposed on these clusters.}, language = {en} } @misc{StoneNicenboimVasishthetal.2022, author = {Stone, Kate and Nicenboim, Bruno and Vasishth, Shravan and R{\"o}sler, Frank}, title = {Understanding the effects of constraint and predictability in ERP}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {829}, issn = {1866-8364}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-58759}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-587594}, pages = {71}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Intuitively, strongly constraining contexts should lead to stronger probabilistic representations of sentences in memory. Encountering unexpected words could therefore be expected to trigger costlier shifts in these representations than expected words. However, psycholinguistic measures commonly used to study probabilistic processing, such as the N400 event-related potential (ERP) component, are sensitive to word predictability but not to contextual constraint. Some research suggests that constraint-related processing cost may be measurable via an ERP positivity following the N400, known as the anterior post-N400 positivity (PNP). The PNP is argued to reflect update of a sentence representation and to be distinct from the posterior P600, which reflects conflict detection and reanalysis. However, constraint-related PNP findings are inconsistent. We sought to conceptually replicate Federmeier et al. (2007) and Kuperberg et al. (2020), who observed that the PNP, but not the N400 or the P600, was affected by constraint at unexpected but plausible words. Using a pre-registered design and statistical approach maximising power, we demonstrated a dissociated effect of predictability and constraint: strong evidence for predictability but not constraint in the N400 window, and strong evidence for constraint but not predictability in the later window. However, the constraint effect was consistent with a P600 and not a PNP, suggesting increased conflict between a strong representation and unexpected input rather than greater update of the representation. We conclude that either a simple strong/weak constraint design is not always sufficient to elicit the PNP, or that previous PNP constraint findings could be an artifact of smaller sample size.}, language = {en} } @article{StoneVasishthMalsburg2022, author = {Stone, Kate and Vasishth, Shravan and Malsburg, Titus von der}, title = {Does entropy modulate the prediction of German long-distance verb particles?}, series = {PLOS ONE}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, publisher = {PLOS ONE}, address = {San Francisco, California, US}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0267813}, pages = {1 -- 25}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In this paper we examine the effect of uncertainty on readers' predictions about meaning. In particular, we were interested in how uncertainty might influence the likelihood of committing to a specific sentence meaning. We conducted two event-related potential (ERP) experiments using particle verbs such as turn down and manipulated uncertainty by constraining the context such that readers could be either highly certain about the identity of a distant verb particle, such as turn the bed […] down, or less certain due to competing particles, such as turn the music […] up/down. The study was conducted in German, where verb particles appear clause-finally and may be separated from the verb by a large amount of material. We hypothesised that this separation would encourage readers to predict the particle, and that high certainty would make prediction of a specific particle more likely than lower certainty. If a specific particle was predicted, this would reflect a strong commitment to sentence meaning that should incur a higher processing cost if the prediction is wrong. If a specific particle was less likely to be predicted, commitment should be weaker and the processing cost of a wrong prediction lower. If true, this could suggest that uncertainty discourages predictions via an unacceptable cost-benefit ratio. However, given the clear predictions made by the literature, it was surprisingly unclear whether the uncertainty manipulation affected the two ERP components studied, the N400 and the PNP. Bayes factor analyses showed that evidence for our a priori hypothesised effect sizes was inconclusive, although there was decisive evidence against a priori hypothesised effect sizes larger than 1μV for the N400 and larger than 3μV for the PNP. We attribute the inconclusive finding to the properties of verb-particle dependencies that differ from the verb-noun dependencies in which the N400 and PNP are often studied.}, language = {en} } @article{StoneVasishthvonderMalsburg2022, author = {Stone, Kate and Vasishth, Shravan and von der Malsburg, Titus Raban}, title = {Does entropy modulate the prediction of German long-distance verb particles?}, series = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {17}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, number = {8}, publisher = {PLOS}, address = {San Francisco, California, US}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0267813}, pages = {25}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In this paper we examine the effect of uncertainty on readers' predictions about meaning. In particular, we were interested in how uncertainty might influence the likelihood of committing to a specific sentence meaning. We conducted two event-related potential (ERP) experiments using particle verbs such as turn down and manipulated uncertainty by constraining the context such that readers could be either highly certain about the identity of a distant verb particle, such as turn the bed [...] down, or less certain due to competing particles, such as turn the music [...] up/down. The study was conducted in German, where verb particles appear clause-finally and may be separated from the verb by a large amount of material. We hypothesised that this separation would encourage readers to predict the particle, and that high certainty would make prediction of a specific particle more likely than lower certainty. If a specific particle was predicted, this would reflect a strong commitment to sentence meaning that should incur a higher processing cost if the prediction is wrong. If a specific particle was less likely to be predicted, commitment should be weaker and the processing cost of a wrong prediction lower. If true, this could suggest that uncertainty discourages predictions via an unacceptable cost-benefit ratio. However, given the clear predictions made by the literature, it was surprisingly unclear whether the uncertainty manipulation affected the two ERP components studied, the N400 and the PNP. Bayes factor analyses showed that evidence for our a priori hypothesised effect sizes was inconclusive, although there was decisive evidence against a priori hypothesised effect sizes larger than 1 mu Vfor the N400 and larger than 3 mu V for the PNP. We attribute the inconclusive finding to the properties of verb-particle dependencies that differ from the verb-noun dependencies in which the N400 and PNP are often studied.}, language = {en} }