@article{Hudson2018,
  author    = {Hudson, Paul},
  title     = {A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures},
  series = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {1381-2386},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11027-017-9769-5},
  pages     = {1019 -- 1038},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SamprognaMohorHudsonThieken2020,
  author    = {Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {A comparison of factors driving flood losses in households affected by different flood types},
  series = {Water resources research},
  volume    = {56},
  journal   = {Water resources research},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0043-1397},
  doi       = {10.1029/2019WR025943},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Flood loss data collection and modeling are not standardized, and previous work has indicated that losses from different flood types (e.g., riverine and groundwater) may follow different driving forces. However, different flood types may occur within a single flood event, which is known as a compound flood event. Therefore, we aimed to identify statistical similarities between loss-driving factors across flood types and test whether the corresponding losses should be modeled separately. In this study, we used empirical data from 4,418 respondents from four survey campaigns studying households in Germany that experienced flooding. These surveys sought to investigate several features of the impact process (hazard, socioeconomic, preparedness, and building characteristics, as well as flood type). While the level of most of these features differed across flood type subsamples (e.g., degree of preparedness), they did so in a nonregular pattern. A variable selection process indicates that besides hazard and building characteristics, information on property-level preparedness was also selected as a relevant predictor of the loss ratio. These variables represent information, which is rarely adopted in loss modeling. Models shall be refined with further data collection and other statistical methods. To save costs, data collection efforts should be steered toward the most relevant predictors to enhance data availability and increase the statistical power of results. Understanding that losses from different flood types are driven by different factors is a crucial step toward targeted data collection and model development and will finally clarify conditions that allow us to transfer loss models in space and time. <br /> Key Points <br /> Survey data of flood-affected households show different concurrent flood types, undermining the use of a single-flood-type loss model Thirteen variables addressing flood hazard, the building, and property level preparedness are significant predictors of the building loss ratio Flood type-specific models show varying significance across the predictor variables, indicating a hindrance to model transferability},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WutzlerHudsonThieken2022,
  author    = {Wutzler, Bianca and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany},
  series = {Frontiers in water},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Frontiers in water},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2624-9375},
  doi       = {10.3389/frwa.2022.932061},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WutzlerHudsonThieken2022,
  author    = {Wutzler, Bianca and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany},
  series = {Frontiers in Water},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Water},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
  address   = {Lausanne, Schweiz},
  issn      = {2624-9375},
  doi       = {10.3389/frwa.2022.932061},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HudsonPhamBubeck2019,
  author    = {Hudson, Paul and Pham, My and Bubeck, Philip},
  title     = {An evaluation and monetary assessment of the impact of flooding on subjective well-being across genders in Vietnam},
  series = {Climate \& development},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Climate \& development},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group},
  address   = {Abingdon},
  issn      = {1756-5529},
  doi       = {10.1080/17565529.2019.1579698},
  pages     = {623 -- 637},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80\% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70\%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual's subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41\% to 86\% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30\% to 57\% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HudsonBotzenAerts2019,
  author    = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.},
  title     = {Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change},
  series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
  volume    = {58},
  journal   = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0959-3780},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101966},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RoderHudsonTaroili2019,
  author    = {Roder, Giulia and Hudson, Paul and Taroili, Paolo},
  title     = {Flood risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for flood insurance in the Veneto region of Italy},
  series = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
  volume    = {37},
  journal   = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {2212-4209},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101172},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The floodplain of the Veneto region (north-east Italy) is one of the most inhabited and economically competitive urban landscapes in Europe. Moreover, recent flood events have caused millions of Euros in damage across the region. Due to the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development, flood impacts are expected to grow. Therefore, it is important for all flood-prone individuals to actively manage and limit flood risk through property-level flood risk management as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy. This is in line with the calls for wider community engagement in risk management in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, an online-survey of Veneto region residents was conducted asking questions regarding flood risk perceptions, preparedness, and preferences towards flood insurance via self-stated willingness to pay (WTP). Our analysis provides an initial indication that while flood risk knowledge is high, it may not be sufficient to encourage proactive risk management. From the WTP values provided people seem reluctant to buy insurance. However, many respondents expressed that a compulsory insurance system may be acceptable. In such a scheme the estimated insurance premium could fall to between (sic)26 and (sic)42 per year, as compared to, potentially, (sic)800 under risk-based premiums, which falls within the majority of WTP estimates provided ((sic)0-(sic)250). Overall, we identify areas of future research that are critical for the better design of risk management policies, supporting the insurance companies in risk management and for recommendations regarding property-level risk management.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018,
  author    = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.},
  title     = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements},
  series = {Ecological economics},
  volume    = {156},
  journal   = {Ecological economics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0921-8009},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.019},
  pages     = {153 -- 163},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KreibichHudsonMerz2021,
  author    = {Kreibich, Heidi and Hudson, Paul and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Knowing what to do substantially improves the effectiveness of flood early warning},
  series = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  volume    = {102},
  journal   = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.},
  address   = {Boston},
  issn      = {0003-0007},
  doi       = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0262.1},
  pages     = {E1450 -- E1463},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories with respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset that is unique with respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and with respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4,468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event were collected by computer-aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HudsonHagedoornBubeck2020,
  author    = {Hudson, Paul and Hagedoorn, Liselotte and Bubeck, Philip},
  title     = {Potential linkages between social capital, flood risk perceptions, and self-efficacy},
  series = {International journal of disaster risk science},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {International journal of disaster risk science},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Berlin},
  issn      = {2095-0055},
  doi       = {10.1007/s13753-020-00259-w},
  pages     = {251 -- 262},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {A growing focus is being placed on both individuals and communities to adapt to flooding as part of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Adaptation to flooding requires sufficient social capital (linkages between members of society), risk perceptions (understanding of risk), and self-efficacy (self-perceived ability to limit disaster impacts) to be effective. However, there is limited understanding of how social capital, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy interact. We seek to explore how social capital interacts with variables known to increase the likelihood of successful adaptation. To study these linkages we analyze survey data of 1010 respondents across two communities in Thua Tien-Hue Province in central Vietnam, using ordered probit models. We find positive correlations between social capital, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy overall. This is a partly contrary finding to what was found in previous studies linking these concepts in Europe, which may be a result from the difference in risk context. The absence of an overall negative exchange between these factors has positive implications for proactive flood risk adaptation.},
  language  = {en}
}